1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Outlook
Nov. 2, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
171.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,280
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,295
Imports 36 32 67 57 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,942
16,625
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,464
5,500
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,438
5,475
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,452
1,460
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,293
1,850
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,647
14,285
Ending Stocks
2,340
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.36
3.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
90.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.0
49.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,296
4,431
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
301
Imports 72 33 24 22 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,515
4,757
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,899
1,940
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
136
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,174
2,250
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,214
4,326
Ending Stocks
430
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.47
9.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. U.S. Meat Trade
Million pounds
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Key factors for 2017 and beyond
Crops/Feedstuffs – BULLISH for livestock sector.
Supply – Growing and competing animal protein supplies.
Domestic Demand – Increasingly competitive environment, battle for market share.
Trade – Stabilizing factor. Strong exports and declining imports.
Producers resiliently charging ahead.

11. +8.1% (‘15 vs ‘14) +2.4% (‘16 vs ‘15) +3.2% (’17YTD vs ’16YTD)
Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

12. Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.

13. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. LMIC Pork Production Quarterly Forecasts (10/2/17)
Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

15. Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

16. Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC

17. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

18. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

19. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

21. Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

22. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

23. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

25. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

26. Ethanol Production
Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

27. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

28. Current Corn Futures
3.94
3.55
Source: CME Group, 11/1/2017

29. Current Soybean Futures
9.88
9.75
Source: CME Group, 11/1/2017

30. 2017/18 Crop Margins

31. 2017/18 Margins @ Actual Yields

32. Margins @ Actual Yields and Basis

33. 2018/19 Margins w/ 2017 Costs

34. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: