1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Mar. 15, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 2 2

4. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

6. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

7. Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

8. Source: USDA/AMS

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. Source: USDA/AMS

12. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.2
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
171.0
168.4
174.6
176.6
174.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,390
Beg. Stocks
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,127
Imports 32 67 57 50
Total Supply
15,479
15,401
16,942
16,947
16,567
Feed & Residual
5,280
5,120
5,473
5,550
5,475
Ethanol
5,200
5,224
5,432
5,575
5,650
Food, Seed, & Other
1,401
1,422
1,450
1,470
1,495
Exports
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
Total Use
13,748
13,664
14,649
14,820
14,520
Ending Stocks
2,047
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.70
3.61
3.36
3.35
3.40
Source: USDA 16 16

17. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
83.3
82.7
83.4
90.1
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
47.5
48.0
52.0
49.1
48.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,927
3,926
4,296
4,392
4,320
Beg. Stocks 92
191
197
302
555
Imports 33 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,052
4,140
4,515
4,718
4,900
Crush
1,873
1,886
1,901
1,960
1,980
Seed & Residual
146
122
139
138
135
Exports
1,842
1,936
2,174
2,065
2,300
Total Use
3,862
3,944
4,213
4,163
4,415
Ending Stocks
485
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
8.95
9.47
9.30
9.25
Source: USDA 17 17

18. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 18 18

19. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

20. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

23. Current Corn Futures
4.13
4.06
3.56
Source: CME Group, 3/15/2018

24. Current Soybean Futures
10.13
9.84
9.56
Source: CME Group, 3/15/2018

25. 2018/19 Crop Margins

26. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: