1. Ag Outlook Ackley State Bank Ag Outlook Iowa Falls, Iowa Dec. 17, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Key Factors for Livestock
Feedstuffs – ADVANTAGEOUS for livestock sector
Size of hog industry driven by last year’s profitability – Productivity to guide 2016 supply prospects
Tight cattle-beef supplies but expansion well underway – Supply of heavy cattle has driven market lately
HPAI in U.S. poultry – HUGE hit on layers/eggs, only meat impact was turkey, broilers were okay – Rebuild/expansion underway
Relatively stable domestic dairy herd expected through 2017 – Worldwide production up, prices
U.S. consumer demand has been GOOD – International trade a bit of a drag but should improve

3. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

5. USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report – United States
September 25, 2015
2015 as %
Pre-Report
Actual -
2014
2015
of 2014
Range
Estimate
Inventories on Sep 1 *
All hogs and pigs
65,979
68,395
103.7
103.6
0.1
Kept for breeding
5,920
5,986
101.1
100.3
0.8
Market
60,059
62,410
103.9
0.0
Under 50 pounds
20,390
20,291
99.5
100.2
-0.7
pounds
17,458
17,986
103.0
103.2
-0.2
pounds
12,112
13,080
108.0
106.6
1.4
180 pounds and over
10,098
11,053
109.5
109.7
Farrowing **
Jun – Aug sows farrowed
2,991
2,944
98.4
98.1
0.3
Sep – Nov intentions
2,994
2,920
97.5
97.2
Dec – Feb intentions
2,895
2,875
99.3
99.1
0.2
Jun – Aug Pig Crop *
30,402
30,585
100.6
100.4
Jun – Aug Pigs per Litter
10.16
10.39
102.3
102.4
-0.1
* 1,000 head
** 1,000 litters
Data Source: USDA/NASS. Urner Barry pre-report estimates

6. New Pork Packing Plants (2017) Sioux City, IA ― Seaboard/Triumph
Coldwater, MI ― Clements Foods
Data Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, Vice President, Pork Analysis, Express Markets Inc. Analytics.

7. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Oct 2015
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Oct-15/Sep-15
Oct-15/Oct-14
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Japan
-10%
-4%
-40,063
Mexico 3%
10%
134,708
12%
Canada
-15%
-1%
-15,458
-3%
South Korea
50%
-6%
104,843
34%
China (Mainland)
-9% 7%
-92,686
-30%
Hong Kong
126%
45%
-12,032
-12%
Australia
-25%
87%
13,165
Philippines
-11%
99%
-24,900
-29%
China (Taiwan)
29%
378%
11,199
49%
Honduras 5%
11,100
27%
Colombia
38% 6%
-17,701
-16%
Dominican Republic 1%
60%
14,422
36%
Chile
-22%
-41%
2,144
Other Countries
23%
-107,287
-39%
Total 2%
-18,544
-0.5%
WASDE U.S.: 2014: 4,857 mil lbs : 4,946 (+1.8% vs 2014) : 5,125 (+3.6% vs 2015)
Source: USDA/ERS

8. LMIC Pork Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts (12/10/15)
Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC
Year
Comm’l
% Chg.
Avg Carcass
Comm’l Pork
Quarter
Slaughter
Year Ago
Weight
Production
2015 I
28,723
5.9
215
0.8
6,161
6.5 II
27,848
8.9
213
-1.1
5,925
7.6
III
28,474
11.4
209
-1.5
5,957
9.8 IV
30,243
5.7
214
-0.2
6,478
115,288
7.9
-0.5
24,521
7.3
2016
29,161
1.5
6,257
1.6
27,536
0.2
5,877
-0.8
28,319
0.1
5,929
30,435
0.6
0.3
6,537
0.9
115,451
24,600
2017
29,909
2.6
6,431
2.8
28,163
2.3
6,023
2.5
28,495
210
5,976
31,335
3.0
6,742
3.1
117,902
2.1
25,172

9. LMIC Pork Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts (12/10/15)
Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC
Year
Nat’l Wtd
% Chg.
CME
Quarter
Avg Base Price
Year Ago
LHF Price
2015 I
68.55
-25.0 II
73.52
-34.3
III
74.60
-32.3 IV
63-64
-29.5
70-71
-30.2
2016
64-66
-5.2
59-63
74-78
3.4
63-76
75-80
4.0
67-76
65-71
7.1
64-67
71-73
2.1
2017
62-69
0.8
67-68
70-78
-2.6
70-79
-3.9
60-70
-4.4
66-74
-2.8

10. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

11. Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC: 12/10/2015)
Change
Average
Commercial
from
Dressed
Beef
Year
Slaughter
Year Ago
Weight
Production
Quarter
(1,000 hd)
(%)
(lbs)
(mil lbs)
2015 I
6,967
-5.5
813
2.2
5,664
-3.5 II
7,227
-7.8
810
2.7
5,855
-5.3
III
7,288
-4.5
832
2.8
6,066
-1.8 IV
7,283
-0.6
841
2.3
6,123
1.7
28,765
-4.7
824
2.5
23,708
-2.2
2016
7,140
822
1.1
5,868
3.6
7,405
0.4
6,020
7,623
4.6
836
6,370
5.0
7,519
3.2
839
-0.2
6,309
3.0
29,687
828
24,567
2017
7,446
4.3
827
0.7
6,161
7,720
816
6,299
7,815
6,559
7,857
4.5
842
6,616
4.9
30,838
3.9
831
0.5
25,635

12. Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC: 12/10/2015)
Steer Price
Change From
Feeder Steer Price
Year
5-Mkt Avg
Year Ago
Southern Plains
Quarter
($/cwt)
(%)
7-800#
5-600#
2015 I
162.43
11.0
215.87
276.14 II
158.11
7.0
225.29
279.32
III
144.22
-9.0
214.38
246.04 IV
-20.0
-3.3
2016
-12.6
-7.7
-2.6
6.4
-4.3
2017
-0.4
-2.7
-1.8
-1.1
-2.1

13. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

15. Cattle on Feed―11/20 report (1,000+ head capacity feedlots)
Nov .1 On Feed: +2.1%
Vs. +2.2% pre-report est. (+1.6%, +3.2%)
IA: +8.5% vs last year [1,000+ Head]
IA: +6.3% vs last year [<1,000 Head]
Oct. Placements: -3.7%
Vs. -3.9% pre-report est. (-6.2%, -1.6%)
IA: +18.2% vs last year; largest (+) of main states [1,000+ Head]
IA: +9.3% vs last year [<1,000 Head]
Oct. Marketings: -3.3%
Vs. -3.9% pre-report est. (-5.0%, -2.0%)
IA: +13.0% vs last year (TX -14%, KS -6%, SD -9%, MN +45%) [1,000+ Head]
IA: +28.8% vs last year [<1,000 Head]

16. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

17. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

18. U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Oct 2015
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Oct-15/Sep-15
Oct-15/Oct-14
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Mexico
14%
13%
-72,469
-20%
Japan
-12%
-41%
-102,254
-18%
Canada
16%
-10%
-39,635
-13%
South Korea
24%
-11%
13,385 5%
Hong Kong
79%
-93,350
-28%
China (Taiwan)
20%
-16%
2,785 3%
Vietnam
65%
42%
2,871
43%
Netherlands
-1%
2,459 8%
Philippines
28%
-17%
2,510
10%
United Arab Emirates
87%
-3%
1,273
11%
Dominican Republic
40%
37%
3,022
Chile 6% 7%
-2,688
Italy
-40%
-582
-4%
Other Countries 2%
-6,337
-5%
Total
18%
-14%
-289,010
-13.4%
WASDE U.S.: 2014: 2,573 mil lbs 2015: 2,223 (-13.6%) 2016: 2,425 (+9.1%)
Source: USDA/ERS

19. U.S. Beef Imports, Jan-Oct 2015
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Oct-15/Sep-15
Oct-15/Oct-14
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Australia
-33%
292,365
34%
Canada
-6% 5%
33,975 7%
New Zealand
-17% 8%
91,299
17%
Brazil
-29%
20%
66,532
99%
Uruguay
13%
57%
43,388
Mexico 9%
76,725
30%
Nicaragua
53%
-42%
-13,396
-13%
Argentina
-100%
-186
Costa Rica
-14%
-22%
1,811
Other Countries
-8%
755
Total
-18%
593,269
25%
WASDE U.S.: 2014: 2,947 mil lbs 2015: 3,382 (+14.8%) 2016: 2,945 (-12.9%)
Source: USDA/ERS

20. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
169.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,654
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
Imports
160 36 32 30
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,415
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,315
5,300
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,209
5,200 25
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,380
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,750
-50
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,630
-25
Ending Stocks
1,785
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20

21. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
83.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,981
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,203
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,890
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
133
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,715
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,738
Ending Stocks
465
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 21 21

22. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

23. Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

24. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 24 24

25. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 25 25

26. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 26 26

27. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

28. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

29. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

30. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

31. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

32. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

33. Corn Grind for Ethanol

34. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

35. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

36. Current Corn Futures
3.71
3.55
Source: CME Group, 12/16/2015

37. Current Soybean Futures
8.47
8.36
Source: CME Group, 12/16/2015

38. 2015/16 Crop Margins

39. 2016/17 Crop Margins

40. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

41. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

42. 2015 Iowa Land Values

43. 2015 Iowa Land Values - % Change

44. 2015 Iowa Land Values

45. 2015 Iowa Land Values - % Change

46. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: