Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Gu 2011 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Information for Better Livelihoods 17th August, 2011 Bay/Bakool EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Gu 2011 Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations – Bay and Bakool FS Field Analysts travelled to all districts for data collection of crop, livestock and markets information Food security information was obtained through key informant and household focus group discussions 2

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Bay Region: 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay Agropastoral High Potential, Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential) Primary sources of income of poor: self-employment, employment, sale of livestock & livestock products and sale of crops. Primary sources of food of poor: own production and food purchase Primary livelihood asset of poor: land, cattle, sheep/goats

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Bakool Region: 1. Pastoral Livelihood (Southern Inland Pastoral) Primary income sources of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products Primary food sources of poor: food purchase Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, sheep/goat and cattle 2. Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential and Bakool Agropastoral) Bay-Bakool Agropastoral: Main sources of income: the combination of agricultural labour, self-employment (firewood, charcoal and lime) and sale of livestock & livestock products. Main sources of food: own production (crop and livestock products) and purchase. Bakool Agropastoral is predominantly pastoral. Main sources of income: livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (bush products) and agricultural labour. Main sources of food: purchase and own production.

Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall Climate Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall Overall statement: Climate was unfavourable in Bay and Bakool regions. Rainfall performance in terms of intensity, duration, distribution and coverage over time was below normal in both regions. Start of Gu rains: Effectively started in third dekad of April and interrupted by a long dry spell in the first two dekads of May; restarted in the third dekad of May but ended early in all livelihoods. Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Most areas of Bakool received 20-60% of normal, with the exception of small pockets, which received 60-120%. The satellite imagery data indicating 140-180% of normal rainfall in east of Tieglow has not been confirmed through ground truthing. Most of Bay regions received 40-80% of normal rainfall.

Vegetation Conditions - Bay Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bay NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

Vegetation Conditions - Bakool Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bakool NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

Civil Insecurity Civil Security Situation: The overall civil security situation in Bay and Bakool agropastoral areas were relatively stable. However, in El Berde and Yeed in Rabdhure district (Bakool) is unstable due to recurrent political confrontations between the armed oppositions and the TFG. Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Limited pastoral mobility. Restricted cross-border trade with Ethiopia. Disruptions of trade affecting both rural and urban areas. 8

Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates – Bay region 9 9 Districts Gu 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA (1995-2010) Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average (2006-2010) Maize Sorghum Baydhaba 255 3,600 3,855 14% 27% 29% Buur Hakaba 1,692 12% 25% 28% Diinsoor 45 1,000 1,045 6% 11% Qansax Dheere 60 800 860 5% 9% 10% Bay Gu 2011 Total 360 7,092 7,452 19% 20% 9 9

Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates – Bakool Region 10 10 Districts Gu 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA (1995-2010) Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average (2006-2010) Maize Sorghum Ceel Barde 0% Rabdhure 21 7% 15% 26% Tayeglow 30 148 178 10% 18% 31% Wajid 35 3% 9% 12% Xudur 23 106 129 22% 41% Bakool Gu 2011 Total 53 310 363 17% 29% 10 10

Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates 11 11 Bay Cowpea, Sesame, Groundnuts Production Estimates Districts Gu 2010 Production in MT Gu 2011 Production in MT Cowpea Sesame Groundnuts Baydhaba 6,000 920 1,925 Buur Hakaba 2,400 120 Diinsoor 2,760 420 300 Qansax Dheere 1,725 1,035 1,050 Bay Total 12,885 2,495 3,275 Bakool Cowpea, Sesame, Groundnuts Production Estimates Districts Gu 2010 Production in MT Gu 2011 Production in MT Cowpea Sesame Groundnuts Ceel Barde Rabdhure 32 4 Tayeglow 210 21 Wajid 78 6 Xudur 126 17 Bakool Total 446 48 11 11

Agriculture Gu 2011 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011) Regional Trend in Gu Cereal Production (Bay Region) Regional Trends in Gu Cereal Production (Bakool Region)

Agriculture Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bay Region) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bakool Region)

Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos 1 2 3 14 14 1. Sorghum Crop Failure. Lafaale Village, Wajid, Bakool, FSNAU, July ‘11 2. Sorghum Crop Failure . Bulo Addoy, Dinsor, Bay, FSNAU, July ‘11 . 3. Sorghum Crop Failure with Crop Fodder Harvest. Carro Gaduud, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, July ‘11. 2 3 14 14

Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow Map Bay supplies limited sorghum to the Bakool, Gedo and Banadir (Mogadishu). Currently, Bakool gets also cereals from Somali Region of Ethiopia. Bay region receives some maize from Somali region of Ethiopia through cross-border trade in Gedo and/or Bakool.

Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (Baidoa - Bay) Factors influencing sorghum prices: Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods. High demand for sorghum due to crop production failure in southern Somalia Some decline of sorghum prices between June and July 2011 due to some new sorghum harvest Sorghum flow-in from Ethiopia Regional Trends in Sorghum Prices (Hudur - Bakool)

Labour Rates & Availability Agriculture Labour Rates & Availability Regional Trend in Daily Labour rate, Baidoa - Bay Factors Influencing Wage Labour: Low agricultural activities and low labour demand due to poor seasonal performance Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate, Hudur - Bakool

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Baidoa – Bay (4 kg/ daily wage) Factor Affecting ToT decline: Significant increase in sorghum prices Decrease of daily wage rate Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Hudur – Bakool (3 kg/daily wage)

Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Gu 2011 Water availability is poor to average for all livelihoods of the two regions Average to poor pasture condition in all areas of Bay and poor in Bakool region Average to poor body condition for camel and goats and poor for cattle and sheep. Normal migration for Bay and abnormal to normal for Bakool region.

Trends in Herd Size (Dec. ‘11) Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production – Bay/Bakool Region Conception (Gu ’11) Calving/kidding Milk production Expected calving/ kidding July – Dec. ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (Dec. ‘11) Livelihoods Livestock Species Bakool Camel: low Cattle: low Sh/goat: medium Cattle: none Sh/goat: low Low Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: decrease (below baseline) Cattle: decrease (below baseline) Sheep/goat: decrease (below baseline) B/Bakool Agro-pastoral Bay Camel: medium Average for camel Sheep/goat: increase (below baseline)

Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices Livestock Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Baidoa – Bay) Factors Influencing L. Goat prices: High supply of livestock into markets Poor livestock body condition Low demand for livestock currently. Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Hudur – Bakool)

Regional Trends in Goat Prices & Terms of Trade Livestock Regional Trends in Goat Prices & Terms of Trade Trends in Terms of Trade: Between Local Goat and Red Sorghum (Baidoa - Bay): 38 kg/head in Jul ’11 vs 126 kg/head in Jul ‘10 Factors Influencing TOT (goat to red sorghum): High cereal prices Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and increased supply on markets Slightly improved ToT in Jul ‘11 due to increased goat and reduced red sorghum prices Trends in Terms of Trade: Between Local Goat and Red Sorghum (Hudur - Bakool): 24 kg/head in Jul ’11 vs 103kg/head in Jul ‘10

Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Bay and Bakool Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Bay and Bakool Mixed Livestock Body Condition Poor Cattle Body Condition. Bulo Gomor , Qansahdhere, Bay, FSNAU, July 2011. Early dried water-catchment, Bakaar weyn, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, July 2011 Near Average Goat Body Condition. Kobon, Qansahdhere, Bay, FSNAU, July 2011. 23

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices: Increased fuel prices Increased international food prices Decreased commercial import supply from Northeast due to Monsoon season, which limited sea freight deliveries to the ports.

Summary of Nutrition Findings Region Nutrition Surveys (July 2011) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm & <11.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Deyr’10/11 Bakool BakoolPastoral ; Rapid Small cluster survey (N=270) GAM ; 55.9 (50.6-61.2) SAM ; 20.4 (15.2-26.7) CMR: 1.89 (1.60-2.19) U5MR:5.06 (3.80-6.32) FSNAU/ Partners,July’11 R=1 ------------------------------ Bakool Agro-Pastoral Rapid Small cluster survey (N=244) GAM ; 45.9 (42.3-49.6) SAM ; 16.4 (12.9-20.6) CMR: 2.2 (1.7-2.7) U5MR: 7 (5.2-8.8) Bay Agro-Pastoral Nutrition Assessment (N=456) GAM ; 55.0 (45.8-64.0) SAM ; 29.8 (22.8-38.0) CMR: 1.09 (0.74-1.45) U5MR: 4.04 (2.31-5.78) FSNAU/ Partners,July’11 R=2 <12.5cm =18.1 (13.6- 23.7) <11.5cm =10.3 (8.1-22.0) ---------------------- 12.5cm=12.2 (0.7 -17.1) <11.5cm= 6.9 (4.6 – 10.3) ___________________ 12.5cm=46.0% <11.5cm= 13.9% High level of acutely malnutrition and increasing trend in last four months. (Source: GTZ, SRCS;HIS data Jan-July’11). _____________ High > 50 %& stable proportion of acutely malnourished children ‘(FSNAU partner HIS, Jan – June 11) N/A ____________ High numbers with increasing trends (Source: DMO,COOPI SFP and OTP data Jan-July’11) Insecurity and displacement High morbidity and unknown diseases Reduced food intake Limited interventions ( health and nutrition) _ __________________ Reduce food intake Heavy case load of attendances at the existing feeding centres Source: DMO &COOPI July’11, R=2) High mobidity: Cholera outbreak Bakool Pastoral –Very Critical with deterioration from Deyr’10/1 and likely to worsen Bakool Agro-pastoral ; Very Critical phase since Post Deyr’10/11, - but the situation has deteriorated to Famine High crude death rates >2/10,000 ________________ Bay Agro-pastoral –Very Critical with deterioration from Deyr’10/11, and likely to worsen - High out-migration to Baidoa Town, Mogadishu , Ethiopia and Kenya

BAY/BAKOOL Nutrition Situation Estimates April 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Aggravating Factors: Poor access to humanitarian assistance (water, health and nutrition-MCH and outreach services, SFP, OTP and SC) Increased seasonal morbidity levels, especially ARI and AWD (confirmed cholera in Baidoa). Unconfirmed whooping cough, measles and unknown diseases. Deteriorated food security due to crop failure and weakened livestock body condition following poor Deyr/Gu 2011 rain performance and limited opportunities for income Low measles immunization and vitamin A supplementation status Limited access to health services, safe water and sanitation facilities in both regions Limited investment and humanitarian space due to political instability and civil insecurity Chronically poor infant and young child feeding practices Mitigating Factors: Reliance on social support Limited health and nutrition services in Baidoa, Huddur, Dinsor, Rabdure and Wajid

BAY/BAKOOL Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 1: IPC, April 2011 Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep) Urban Population: Bay: 100%P and 50%M in HE; 50%M in AFLC Bakool: 100%P in HE and 100%M AFLC Rural Population: Bakool Agropastoral (75%P Famine and 25%P HE; 50%M HE ;50%M AFLC); Bay Agropastoral High Potential (100%P in Famine and 100%M in HE); Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential (100%P Famine, 100% M HE); Southern Inland Pastoral (75%P Famine, 25% P HE, 50%M AFLC; 50%M HE) Acute malnutrition: Very Critical and likely to deteriorate Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day, in HE facing severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 liters ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 liters ppp day -human usage only) Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference) Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

BAY/BAKOOL Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation Main Influencing Factors: Poor Gu ‘11 cereal production: Bay -19% of PWA; Bakool - 17% of PWA Depleted cereal stocks in Bay due to consecutives seasons of crop failure (2) and Bakool (8) Loss of cattle, decline in camel, sheep/goats herd size in Bakool resulting from prolonged drought (from Deyr 2007/08 to Gu 2011) Significant decline in cattle herds and cattle value in Bay region Poor livestock body condition and abnormal migration Reduced milk availability in both regions Significant increase in prices of both local cereals and imported commodities Reduced labour opportunities and access to income due to low Gu 2011 agricultural activities Weak purchasing power reflected in the decline of ToT (between Jun ’10 and Jun ‘11): ToT daily labour/red sorghum in Bakool - from 5kg to 2kg and Bay - from 12kg to 3kg; ToT goat and red sorghum in Bakool - 98kg to 20kg/head; Bay - 145kg to 25 kg Trade restrictions due to high political confrontation among opposing groups, particularly in Bakool region (El-Berde, parts of Rabdhure) Limited humanitarian support

BAY/BAKOOL Rural Population in Crisis by District Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Famine Bakool Ceel Barde 23,844 6,000 3,000 8,000 7,000   Rab Dhuure 31,319 12,000 1,000 10,000 9,000 Tayeeglow 64,832 24,000 21,000 Waajid 55,255 20,000 4,000 22,000 18,000 Xudur 73,939 28,000 SUB-TOTAL 249,189 90,000 5,000 30,000 92,000 79,000 Grand Total 95,000 201,000 Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Famine Bay Baydhaba/Bardaale 247,670 2,000 129,000 78,000   Buur Hakaba 100,493 1,000 50,000 33,000 Diinsoor 63,615 32,000 20,000 Qansax Dheere 81,971 3,000 42,000 26,000 SUB-TOTAL 493,749 8,000 253,000 157,000 Total Affected Population in AFLC & HE 410,000

BAY/BAKOOL Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Famine Bakool Bakool Agro Pastoral 116,812 47,000 22,000 35,000 Bay-Bakool Agro-Past LP 101,242 46,000   Southern Inland Past 31,135 8,000 5,000 11,000 9,000 SUB-TOTAL 249,189 90,000 30,000 92,000 79,000 Grand Total 95,000 201,000 Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Famine Bay Bay-Bakool- Agro-Pastoral Low Potential 178,683 8,000 173,000 95,000 Bay Agro-pastoral High Potential 315,066 80,000 62,000   SUB-TOTAL 493,749 253,000 157,000 Total Affected Population in AFLC & HE 410,000

BAY/BAKOOL Urban Population in Crisis District UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Bakool   Ceel Barde 29,179 5,335 1,000 37 2,000 75 Rab Dhuure 37,652 6,333 3,000 63 79 Tayeeglow 81,053 16,221 6,000 43 74 Waajid 69,694 14,439 48 5,000 76 Xudur 93,049 19,110 8,000 52 7,000 78 Sub-Total 310,627 61,438 24,000 49 22,000 25,000 District UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergenc y (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Bay   Baydhaba/Bardaale 320,463 72,793 29,000 40 16,000 45,000 84 Buur Hakaba 125,616 25,123 6,000 2,000 32 8,000 Diinsoor 75,769 12,154 3,000 1,000 33 4,000 Qansax Dheere 98,714 16,743 5,000 30 Sub-Total 620,562 126,813 43,000 36 62,000 62

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