1. Hiran Region Gu 2011 17 th August 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2.  FSNAU Food security field analyst of Hiran was able to collect data directly from the field in Mataban areas.  The information from other areas that could not be accessed directly due to insecurity was collected through teleconferencing with enumerators, key informants/focus groups  Travelling through riverine & agro pastoral LZ livelihoods for direct observation followed by data collection through teleconferencing Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income 2. Agropastoral and Riverine Livelihoods  Hiran Agropastoral: Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, crop sales, sale of bush products (charcoal, fire wood, building sticks, fodder); main sources of food: own production, purchase and food gifts  Hiran riverine: Main sources of income: labour activities, sale of crops, crop fodder and bush products; main source of food: own production and purchases Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Iincome 1. Two Pastoral Livelihood (SIP and Hawd)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: own production, purchase and food gifts  Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and sheep/goats

4. Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June 2011) Overall statement: Normal rains were received in Southern Inland Pastoral (SIP) and parts of Hawd pastoral LZ while the rainfall performance was poor in agropastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd pastoral LZ Start of Season: started late 3 rd dekad of April and ended 3 rd dekad of May 2011 Temporal and Spatial coverage: Average rains with good impact on livelihoods were received in SIP and parts of Hawd livelihood. Poor Rains: All of Hiran agropastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd livelihood zones (60 - 80 % of LTM) Hagaa Rain (June – July ): Light Hagaa rains have been received in the southern part of Jalalaqsi district Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean) Climate Gu 2011 Seasonal Performance

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions (NDVI) Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

6. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity Civil Security Situation: Recurrent armed clashes between opposing parties over the control of the region further deteriorated security situation. Beletweyne and its surroundings are the epicentre of the current conflict. Regrouping and militia build-up in the region likely to cause another large confrontation Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Human death and injuries Trade disruptions Population displacement Restricted humanitarian interventions Outmigration of business and traders, negatively impacting food availability and job opportunities of poor households

7. Regional Cereal Production by District Agriculture Districts Gu 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA (1995-2010) Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average (2006-2010) MaizeSorghum Belet Weyne 125150275122%17%43% Bulo Burto 1009019069%18%42% Jalalaqsi 905014082%19%52% Gu 2011 Total 31529060590%18%45%

8. Agriculture Trends in Regional Cereal Production Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011)

9. Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos 1. Sorghum crop damaged by birds, Beletweyne 2. Poor maize crop, Jalalaqsi 3. Sorghum failure in agro pastoral, Buloburte 1 2 3

10. Local cereal flow from normal sources – from Bay and the two Shabelle regions have already terminated due to poor crop production Current cereal inflow to the region is commercial food aid (Ethiopian side) through northern regions and direct cross border trade; the supply has reduced due to insecurity. Agriculture Regional Cereal Flow

11. Agriculture Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices and Daily Labour Wage Rates Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Maize) Regional Trends in Daily Labour Rate (Beletweyn market) Factors Influencing: Sorghum prices: Poor local crop production Cessation of cereal inflow from Bay and two Shabelle regions as a result of poor harvest failure. Civil insecurity restricting the trade flow Labour rates: Increased job opportunities with cash crop production in the riverine areas; intensified activities in the wake of Ramadan

12. Agriculture Regional Trend in TOT between Labour to Cereal Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between daily labour wage rate and white maize: 7kg/daily labour in Jul ‘11 vs 13kg in Jul ‘10.

13. Agriculture Cash crop production Cash crop production in riverine livelihood is widely practiced by better off farmers throughout the year. The main crops include: onions, tomatoes, watermelon, peppers. These are supplied to both regional markets as well as northern regions (Puntland and Somaliland)

14. Agriculture Coping strategies Coping strategies available for poor HHs in riverine and agro pastoral LZ include: Fodder sale Labour activities & migration Collection and sale of bush products Kinship and social support Limited loan

15. Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos 1. Charcoal heading to market (Beletwein) 2. Building sticks heading to market 3. Hired labour by better-off for maize threshing (Jalalaqsi) 1 2 3

16. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration- Gu 2011 Water availability is average in livelihood zones except parts of Hawd Pastoral, which is experiencing moderate water shortage due to poor rains Pasture condition is average in SIP and parts of Hawd livelihoods, and very poor in agro pastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd LZ due to poor rains Livestock body condition is near normal to normal in SIP and parts of Hawd LZ but very poor in agro pastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd LZ Normal migration to SIP and parts of Hawd areas sharing the limited resources, which had created early resource depletion

17. Livestock Trends in Milk Production and Livestock Holdings Region Conception (Gu ’11) Calving/ kidding (Gu ’11) Milk production (Gu ’11) Expected calving/ kidding Jul – Dec ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (June 2011) LivelihoodsLivestock species Hiran All Lzs: Camel: Low to None Cattle: Low to None Sheep/Goats: Low to Medium All Lzs: Camel: Low to None Cattle: Low to None Sheep/Goats: Low to None All Lzs: Very low for all species All Lzs: Camel: Low to None Cattle: Low to None Sheep and goat: Low to None Pastoral- Hawd Camel: Decreasing trend (below baseline) Sheep/Goat: Decreasing trend (below baseline) SIP and Agro- pastoral Camel: Decreasing trend (below baseline) Cattle : Decreasing trend (below baseline) Sheep/Goat: decreasing trend (below baseline)

18. Livestock Pastoral Destitution

19. Livestock Trends in local goat prices Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices & Terms of Trade Factors Influencing: L. Goat prices: Low demand Civil insecurity ToT goat to sorghum: High cereal prices Decreased livestock prices Regional Trends in ToT: local goat to cereal (red sorghum)

20. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Normal livestock migration. Hawd, Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, July ‘11 Poor goat body conditions. Agropastoral, Buloburte, Hiran, FSNAU, July ’11 Poor cattle body conditions in Agro pastoral. Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, July‘11 Empty water catchment. Hawd, Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, July‘11

21. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Markets Factors Influencing Commercial Import Price increase (last six months) Increased international prices Civil insecurity: high tension restricting trade movements Increased illegal taxes Increased reliance on imported cereals due to crop failure in southern regions

22. Summary of Nutrition Findings RegionNutrition Surveys (July 11) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm, & % <11.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis Gu, 2011 HiranHiran Riverine N= 570 GAM – 20.7 (18.4-23.2) SAM - 9.1 (7.2-11.5) CMR - 1.37 (1.04-1.71) U5MR - 4.24 (2.95- 5.31) Hiran Agro-pastoral N=535 GAM- 43.2 (37.7-48.9) SAM -16.3 (13.4-19.6) CMR- 1.53 (1.15-1.90) U5MR- 4.24 (2.83- 5.65) Hiran Pastoral N=444 GAM - 27.3 (24.2-30.6) SAM- 12.8 (10.5-15.6) CMR 1.53 (1.07-1.98) U5MR 3.67 (2.38-4.97) Hiran Riverine MUAC<12.5 cm 21.00 (18.5-23.8) MUAC<11.5 cm 8.60 (6.8-10.9) Hiran Agro-pastoral MUAC<12.5 cm 24.20 (20.0-29.0) MUAC<11.5 cm 5.80 (3.7-9.0) Hiran Pastoral <12.5 GAM MUAC 22.80% (19.5-26.4) <11.5 SAM MUAC 6.20% (4.7-8.1) High (>20%) and increasing trends Data from SCUk shows increasing trend of admissions Overall Aggravating Factors: Civil insecurity - limited humanitarian space; Disease outbreaks- AWD, cholera, Limited access to health centers Overall Mitigating Factors: Income from sale of fodder and some labor opportunities among the riverine Hiran Riverine – In Deyr 2010/2011 it was Likely Very Critical Gu 2011 the nutrition situation is Very Critical and likely to deteriorate Hiran Agro- pastoral – In Deyr 2010/2011 it was Likely Very Critical Gu 2011 the nutrition situation is Very Critical and likely to deteriorate Hiran Pastoral In Deyr 2010/2011 it was Likely Very Critical Gu 2011 the nutrition situation is Very Critical and likely to deteriorate Nutrition

23. Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 HIRAN Nutrition Situation Estimates Aggravating factors:  Civil Insecurity and associated disruption including increasing number of IDPs in the region  Very limited humanitarian space  Outbreaks of diarrhea and whooping cough reported in the region  Limited access to health centers and medical supplies in the area  Increasing food insecurity Mitigating factor:  Very limited access to SF programs  Income from sale of fodder and some labour opportunities among the riverine  Social support Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)

24. HIRAN Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep) Urban Population: 100%P in HE; 50%M in AFLC Rural Population: Southern Inland Pastoral P: 100% P in HE; 50% M- AFLC; Hiran Riverine 100% P- HE; 75% M-HE; 25% M in AFLC; Hiran Agropastoral POOR: 100% in HE; 75% M- HE and 25% M- AFLC; Hawd 100%P AFLC Acute Malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset Stripping) Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage only); in AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping) Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in AFLC (emerging; diffuse) Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access) MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2011 MAP 1: IPC, April 2011

25. HIRAN Main Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation Aggravating Factors:  Very poor rainfall in terms of coverage and intensity in cropping areas and near average for pastoral livelihoods except in pockets of Hawd livelihood  Complete absence of cereal stocks due to 7-8 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading to successive seasons of cereal crop failure  Very low Gu 2011 cereal production of 605MT (8% of PWA)  Poor pasture conditions in agro-pastoral and riverine and high fodder prices  Very poor livestock body condition (cattle and sheep) with high deaths in Deyr 2010 and Jilaal 2011  Decreasing trends in herd size of all species  Significant increase in maize prices (85% from June 2010) and absent sorghum on the markets  Lack of red sorghum in the main reference markets  Weak purchasing power: ToT daily labour wage/ white maize (from 10kg in June ’10 to 6kg in June ’11) and local goat/ white maize (from 84 kg in June ’10 to 39 kg in June ’11).  Recurrent armed clashes between opposing parties over the control of the region resulting in displacements and trade disruptions  Restricted humanitarian interventions Mitigating Factors:  Access to limited irrigated fodder sales and cash crops  Availability of agricultural labour (cash crops by the better-off and upper middle) for the poor in riverine areas  Migration options to Somali region of Ethiopia to access better pasture, water and humanitarian assistance.  Social support, including remittance contribute rural/urban income

26. HIRAN Rural Population in Crisis by livelihoods Hiraan Region and Affected Livelihood Zone Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11 GU 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Famine Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral 25,760 4,0003,0007,00000 Hiran Agro-Past 136,727 38,00085,00020,000104,0000 Hiran riverine 32,633 4,00025,0004,00025,0000 Southern Inland Past 61,511 17,00012,00014,00015,0000 Destitute Pastoralists 4,067 04,0000 0 SUB-TOTAL 260,698 63,000129,00045,000148,0000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 192,000193,000

27. HIRAN Rural Population in Crisis by District Hiraan Region Affected District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11 GU 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Famine Belet Weyne/Matabaan 135,58030,00069,00023,00077,0000 Bulo Burto/Maxaas 88,67323,00045,00015,00053,0000 Jalalaqsi 36,44510,00015,0007,00018,0000 SUB-TOTAL 260,69863,000129,00045,000148,0000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE192,000193,000

28. HIRAN Urban Population in Crisis District UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Hiraan Belet Weyne/Matabaan 172,04936,4695,00015,000559,00015,00066 Bulo Burto/Maxaas 111,03822,36509,0004009,00040 Jalalaqsi 46,72410,27904,0003904,00039 Sub-Total 329,81169,1135,00028,000489,00028,00054

29. The End