1. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Livelihood-based Food Security Monitoring/Early Warning in Somalia Nairobi, 26 September, 2011 EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Food Security Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Field Staff Distribution and Locations Somali Livelihoods, Food Security and Nutrition Information and Analysis Unit Baseline Livelihoods Analysis Seasonal & Emergency Assessments Early Warning Monitoring Nutrition Situation Analysis Integrated Food Security Analysis Applied Research 1.Information is Used to Inform: Humanitarian Appeals & Response Development Programming Project Monitoring Strategic Planning 2.Total staff number: 68 Field Analysts: 30 14 Nutrition Analysts 16 Food Security Analysts NBI Based Staff: 38 Food Security Team Nutrition Team Data Systems Team Operation Support Team Network of Field Data Enumerators: 91

3. Foundation of FSNAU Food Security and Nutrition analysis 1.Baseline description and understanding of livelihoods 2.Main Components: Livelihood Assets & Strategies Coping, Seasonality, Gender Shocks & Hazards Early Warning Indicators Underlying Causes of Vulnerability 3.FSNAU Information Products: Livelihood Zone Maps Livelihood Baseline Data Livelihood Zone Reports Livelihood Profiles

4. Somali Livelihood Systems/Zones  A total of 33 rural livelihood zones : o Riverine (5); o Agropastoral (14); o Pastoral (14)  Total area under rural LZs: 634sq.km o Pastoral (74%); o Agropastoral (24%); o Riverine (2%)  Total rural population: 4.5mln people o Pastoral (48%); o Agropastoral (43%); o Riverine (9%)  Major concentrations of LZ populations: o Pastoral - North and Central (70%); o Agropastoral - South (88% ); o Riverine - South (100%)

5. Importance of Agriculture and Livestock in Somalia Farming LZ: 60-70% comes from own production of cereals Pastoral LZs: 15-20% (livestock products) Farming LZ: 60-70% of crop sales, farm labour and zakat Pastoral LZs: 70-80% from livestock/livestock product sales, zakat Food source of the poor: Income source of the poor:

6. Main Crops and Livestock Species Crop AreasLivestock areas

7. FSNAU Monitoring System Seasonal: assessments - Deyr and Gu (primary data) Crop: Cereal (maize, sorghum) planting, harvesting, production; inputs and irrigation, cash crop production; cereal flow; stocks, post-harvest losses, etc. Livestock: rainfall performance, pasture conditions, water conditions and prices, migration patterns, livestock conception, calving/kidding, off-take, debt level, food and income sources, etc. Monthly: Rainfall Performance – satellite imagery (Spot and NOAA), rain-gauges (Fewsnet and SWALIM), ground-truthing Cereal availability on the markets - primary Livestock and cereals prices, daily labour wage rates, import commodity prices, etc. - primary Cereal imports (cross-border and official through ports) - secondary Relief food assistance statistics - secondary

8. Agricultural Seasonality CerealsZone OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep Deyr wet seasonJilaal dry seasonGu wet season Hagaa dry season Irrigated maizeSouth Rain-fed maizeSouth Sorghum (Irrigated in Hiran)South Sorghum (long cycle)NW Rain-fed maizeNW land preparation planting weeding harvesting CerealsZone OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSep Deyr wet seasonJilaal dry seasonGu wet seasonHagaa dry season Off-season sesame, maize and cowpea Juba, Shabelle, Hiran and Gedo Riverine

9. Pastoral Seasonality Livestock Species OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep Deyr wet seasonJilaal dry seasonGu wet season Hagaa dry season Sheep&goat Cattle Camel Conception Calving/kidding Peak of Normal Sales Peak of distress sales Normal selling peak: 70 days window between the end of Ramadan and the beginning of Hajj Distress selling peak: end of Jilaal

10. Crop Assessment District, Village questionnaires (KI, focus groups); Cereal flow (traders, grain trade brokers, store owners, etc)

11. Pastoral Assessment Key informant questionnaire on seasonal performance; Pastoral households on herd dynamics, food source, debts, etc.

12. Climate Gu 2011 Rainfall Performance Gu 2011 RFE percentage of Normal July 2011 NDVI Absolute Difference from LTM

13. Crop Performance (Gu 2011) Failed sorghum production. Tubaako, Baardera Gedo, July 2011 Failed crop. Malaaley, Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011 Average Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July ‘11

14. Cereal Availability (Gu 2011) Calendar year cereal harvests in southern Somalia (1996-2011) compared to average Cereal Balance for Somalia(Mt. Tons)

15. Food Access in Crop Livelihoods (Gu 2011) Terms of Trade: daily wage to cereals

16. Pastoral Assessments Rahmo Camp. Coastal LZ, Beyla town, Bari region, FSNAU, July 2011 Livestock Carcass. Nugaal Valley, Sool, FSNAU, July 2011 Good body & pasture condition. Hawd Hargeisa, FSNAU July 2011

17. LIVESTOCK Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production RegionConception Calving/kidding ( Gu ’11 ) Milk production ( Gu ’11 ) Expected calving/ kidding (Jul-Dec ’11) Herd Size Projection (up to Dec. ‘11) NW Camel: Low to Medium Sh/goat: Medium Camel: Low Sh/goat: Low except Golis/Guban: Low to Medium Below average all regions, but average in W. Galbeed & Awdal Camel: Low Sheep/goat: Medium Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend for all livelihoods, except Golis/Guban where all species are above Baseline) NECamel : Low Sh/Goat: Low to Medium with exception of Coastal Deeh (Low) Camel: Low Sheep/Goats: Medium with exception Sool and Coastal Deeh (Low) Sh/goats: Low Camel: Below Average Camel : Low Sh/goats: Medium Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Central Camel : Low to None Sh/Goat: Medium to Low Camel : Low Sheep/Goat: Medium Sh/Goat: Low to Medium for Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt Sh/goats: Low Camel: Below Average Camel: Low to None Sh/Goat: Medium to Low Cowpea Belt and Coastal Deeh: Low to None for all species Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Hiran Camel /Cattle: Low Sh/Goat: Low to Medium, except Agropastoral Low to None Low to None for All speciesCattle/sh/goat: Very low Camel: below averge Camel : Low Cattle: Low Sh/Goat: Low to Medium Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Cattle: Below baseline (decreasing trend) Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Shabelle Low for all species in all livelihoods Camel: Low Cattle: Low Sh/goat: Medium Very Low for all species Camel : Low Cattle: Low to None Shoats: Medium All Species: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Juba Camel /Cattle: Low to None Sh/goat: Low to Medium Camel: Low to Medium Cattle: Low to None Sh/goat: Low to Medium Very Low cattle, sheep/goats but average for camel Camel: Medium to Low Cattle: Low to None Sheep/Goats: Low to Medium Camel: Above Baseline (decreasing trend) Cattle: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Sheep/goats: Below Baseline (increasing trend) Gedo Low to None for all species Camel: Low to Medium Sh/goat and Cattle: Low to None Camel: Below Average Cattle and Sheep: Significantly below average Camel: Low Cattle, Sh/Goats: Low to None Camel: Below Baseline (Decreasing trend) Cattle: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Bay/BakoolLow to None for All species Camel: Low to Medium Sh/goat and Cattle: Low to None Camel: Below Average Cattle and Sheep: Very Low Low for All speciesCamel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Cattle: Below Baseline (decreasing trend) Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)

18. Trend Local Quality Goat Prices in Southern Regions Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Maize, Sorghum to Goat Trend Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central regions Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat Food Access in Pastoral Areas

19. Total Annual Livestock Exports Compared to 5 Year Average Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) Berbera: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) * 2011 up to July Livestock Exports

20. Oct-Dec seasonal rainfall forecast 20 Sept. – Nov. 2011Oct. – Dec. 2011Nov. 2011 – Jan. 2012 Dec. 2012 – Feb. 2012 1.In the most-likely scenario the Oct-Dec rains are expected to start on time and overall season totals are expected to be average, though rains during the second half of the season are likely to be less favorable. 2.The consensus-based climate outlook concluded on the 29th Forum of Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook (1-3 Sep. ’11) predicts near normal rainfall with a slight tendency to above normal in southern regions; near normal to below normal in Central and North, apart from Awdal region (near to above normal). Source: ECMWF

21. 21 Likely Price Movement in Southern Somalia (Sep-Dec 2011) Staple cereal prices and projections - BaidoaStaple cereal prices and projections - Qorioley

22. Food Security Outcomes 22 Food Security Outcomes (Aug – Sep ’11)Projected Food Security Outcomes (Oct-Dec ’11)

23. Thank You