1. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Northwest Gu 2011 17 August, 2011 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Information for Better Livelihoods

2. Field staff had normal access to all livelihoods in the Northwest regions in Gu 2011 Assessment Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and Northwest Agro-pastoral)  Togdheer Agro-Pastoral: are more pastoral, however there is an increasing dependency on crop and fodder production. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment and fodder sales; Main source of food: Own crop and food purchase  Northwest (W/Galbeed and Awdal) Agro-pastoral: are more agriculturists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; Main sources of food: own crop production and purchase. Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugaal Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own production  Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat

4. Overall Statement: Localized normal rains impacting positively rangeland and water resources in most livelihoods of the regions. Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June 2011 ) Start of Season: Started late, in 3rd dekad of April, in most parts of the Northwest zone, and were intermittent in May and June Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration and distribution of the rainfall was average to poor in most livelihoods of EastGoils, Nugaal valley, Sool Plateau and Hawd (Togdheer, Sanag and Sool regions). Regions with some dry spells: Sool, Sanaag and Togdheer and parts of West Golis of Awdal and W/Galbeed Normal rains in livelihood zones: Most livelihoods received localized normal rains ( 100-125mm) Below normal rains in livelihood zones: West Sool Plateau, western upper Nugal, central Nugal Valley and southwestern part of Hawd of Togdheer (40-60mm) Generally, pasture and water conditions are average in most livelihoods Climate Gu 2011 Seasonal Performance Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

6. Civil Security Situation: Overall the security situation in the Northwest Zone remains stable.  Lasanod town: Tensions with increasing instability and targeting killings of prominent figures.  Kalshaale and Ceel Berdaale issues of land resources are diffused and peace efforts are ongoing Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:  Restricted movement of transport from Burao to Buhoodle areas. Civil Insecurity Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

7. Agriculture Cereal Production Gu-Karan Cereal Establishment Estimates (North-West) Regions Gu/Karan 2011 Production in MT Gu-Karan 2011 as % of Gu- Karan 2010 Gu-Karan 2011 as % of Gu-Karan PWA (1998-2010) Gu-Karan 2011 as % of 5 year average (2006-2010) MaizeSorghumTotal Cereal Awdal 2103,5503,76092%122%124% Togdheer 2032034010%44%28% Woqooyi Galbeed 42012,80013,22033%81%63% TOTAL 65016,67017,32036%86%68%

8. Agriculture Trends in Gu/Karan 2011 Crop Establishment Estimates

9. Gu 2011 Local Cereal inflow from Ethiopia Agriculture

10. Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) - Increasing Trend Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor 9kg of white sorghum /daily wage) in Jul ’11 versus 12kg in Jul ’10 - Decreasing Trend Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Burao

11. Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) - Increasing Trend Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor Kg of sorghum/ daily wage) From 10kg in June’10 to 8kg in June’11 - Decreasing Trend Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Hargeysa

12. Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July ’11 Livestock  Average performance of Gu 2011 season in most pastoral livelihoods resulted normal pasture and water availability.  Average livestock body conditions for all species  Below average milk production due to low camel calving (high camel abortion in March 30-40%) and moderate increase in milk price (10%) since June 2010  Opportunistic livestock migration (parts of Golis, Sool and Hawd

13. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Livelihoods Conception (Gu ’11) Calving/kidding (Gu ‘11) Milk production (Gu ‘11) Expected calving/ Kidding Jul – Dec ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (% of baseline as of Dec ‘11) NorthwestHawd Pastoral Camel: Low to Medium Sh/goat: Medium Camel: Low Sh/goat: Low Below averageCamel: Low Sh/goat: Medium to Low Togdheer and Sool Camel: increased same as baseline Togdheer and Sool : Sh/goats: Decrease below baseline W/galbeed: Camel: Increased above baseline W/galbeed : Sh/goats; increased above baseline E.Golis/Gabi Pastoral Camel: Low to Medium Sh/goat: Medium Camel: Low Sh/goat: Low to Medium Below average Camel: Low Sh/goat: Medium Camel: increased above baseline Sh/goats: Decreased below baseline West Golis/Guban Camel: Medium Sh/goat: Medium Camel: Low Sh/goat: Medium Below averageCamel: Medium Sh/goat: Medium Camel: increased above baseline Sh/goats: increased as baseline Sool Pastoral Camel: Low to Medium Sh/goat: Medium Camel: Low Sh/goat: Low Below averageCamel: Low Sh/goat: Medium Camel: Insignificant for Poor HHs Sh/goats: Decreased below baseline Nugaal Valley Pastoral Camel: Medium Sh/goat: Medium Camel: Low Sh/goat: LowBelow average Camel: Low Sh/goat: Medium Camel: Insignificant for Poor HHs Sh/goats: decreased below baseline

14. Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade - Burao Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat (Rice kg/head) - Decreasing Trend

15. Livestock Regional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade - Erigavo Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality - Declining Trend

16. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Vs Exchange Rate Slight increase in Import Commodity Prices (last six months) Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices: Appreciation of SLSh Increased global food prices Increased fuel prices Increased transit of imported commodities to neighboring Ethiopia Traders reluctant to reduce imported food prices respective to decline of US Dollar Markets

17. Livestock Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port

18. Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Livestock Livestock Carcass-Nugaal Ainabo, FSNAU, July 2011 Poor Pasture –Hawd Togdheer, FSNAU, July 2011 Good body & pasture condition, Hawd Harg, FSNAU July 2011 Poor Pasture –Nugal Valley,-Xudun, FSNAU July 2011

19. Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Good Sorghum- Beer Village –Togdheer- FSNAU, July 2011 Destitute HHs in Garadag- Nugaal Valley, FSNAU, July 2011 Poor pasture –Sool Plateau, Ceerigabo, FSNAU, July 2011 Livestock

20. Summary of Nutrition Findings in NW Regions (Somaliland) RegionNutrition Surveys (May– July 11) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Deyr ’10/11 NW West Golis/Guban GAM =22.0% ; SAM =5.0%. Nugal Valley GAM=23.2% ; SAM= 6.7% Sool Plateau GAM= 15.9% ; SAM= 4.0% East Golis GAM= 12.8% ; SAM= 2.1% NW Agro-pastoral GAM= 11.5% ; SAM= 0.6% Hawd of Hargeisa & Togdheer GAM= 6.2% ; SAM= 0.3% (FSNAU & partners, July11 R=1) Burao IDP GAM=19.1% ; SAM= 5.6% Hargeisa IDP GAM=10.9% ; SAM= 2.2% Berbera IDP GAM=14.5% ; SAM= 3.0% (FSNAU & partners, May1 R=1) HIS data show mixed trends across livelihoods with high (15- 20%) and increasing or fluctuating proportion of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in West Golis/ Guban, Sool and Nugal livelihoods; Low (<10%) and decreasing or stable trends in East Golis, Hawd and Agro-pastoral livelihoods ( Source: SRCS, MOH, HIS Data, January- July11 R=3) OTP admission show mixed trends, in the number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP –with high and fluctuating numbers in facilities in West Golis/ Guban, Nugal, and Sool livelihoods; And low and decreasing numbers in facilities in East Golis, Hawd and Agro-pastoral, livelihoods ( Source: MOH, Data, January- July11 R=3) Aggravating factors -High morbidity – 20%-45% reportedly ill two weeks prior to assessment in all livelihoods with exception of Agra-pastoral (19.3%) - AWD,measles dengue fever outbreak in Sanag & W. Galbeed -Limited milk access due to low livestock production and drought-related out-migration of livestock -Limited humanitarian assistance -Poor child feeding practice and health seeking behaviors -Poor access to safe water, health and sanitation facilities -Increasing food prices -Increased destitution Mitigating factors -Increased humanitarian programmes in the region (health & feeding facilities, WASH) -Child Health Days conducted in the area in the months of June 2011 -Improved milk access in Hawd (in-migrating livestock & local) Strong social support West Golis/Guban and Nugal Valley Very Critical- deteriorated from Serious in Deyr ’10/11 Sool Plateau Critical – deteriorated from Alert in Deyr ’10/11 East Golis and NW Agro-pastoral Serious – No change from Deyr ’10/11 Hawd Pastoral Alert – Improved from Serious in Deyr ’10/11 Hargeisa and Berbera IDP Serious- No change from Deyr ‘10/11 Burao IDP Critical- Deteriorated from Serious in Deyr ’10/11

21. Northwest Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Aggravating factors:  Limited milk availability in most of the pastoral LHZs due to poor conceptions in Deyr 2010  High morbidity - outbreak of measles and dengue fever and increased incidences of diarrhoea in pastoral LHZs  Inappropriate child feeding and care practices across livelihood  Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water in rural LHZs  Lack of seasonal labour opportunities among the IDPs and reduced purchasing power affecting food access Mitigating factors:  Increased humanitarian programmes in the region (health, feeding, WASH)  Child Health Days conducted in the area in the months of June/July 2011  Improved milk access in Hawd of W. Galbeed Nutrition Situation Estimates, April 2011

22. NORTHWEST Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation Key IPC Reference Outcomes Urban Population: Sool 100% P AFLC; Sanaag 75% P AFLC, 25%P HE, 25% M AFLC Rural Population: Hawd (Togdheer and Sool) -100%P AFLC; Hawd (Hargeisa) -BFI; Sool Plateau -75% P HE, 25% P AFLC; Nugaal Valley -50%P HE ; 50% P AFLC; East Golis -100% P AFLC; Togdheer AP - BFI; Northwest Agropastoral -BFI; West Golis Guban-BFI Acute malnutrition: Mixed trends with most livelihoods showing significant deterioration while others indicating either sustained or improved situtaion. West Golis and Nugal Valley livelihoods has significantly deteriorated from Serious to Very Critical levels while Sool Plateau has declined from Serious to Critical Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day Water Access: Average of 7.5-15 ltrs ppp day ( human usage only) Destitution/Displacement: Predominantly stable security situation with increasing pastoral destitution in mainly in Nugaal valley Coping: Distress strategies and high indebtedness for food and water expenses during prolonged Jilaal season Livelihood Assets: Accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access Main Contributing Factors: Below normal rainfall in East-Golis, parts of Sool Plateau and Nugal valley Livestock death in Hawd (Togdheer, Sool regions), Nugal valley, Sool Plateau and East-Golis and considerably reduced livestock holding among the poor Sales of breeding animals among the poor HHs (Nugal, Sool, Hawd of Togdheer) due to lack of saleable animals Poor milk production (camel) in all pastoral areas of Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions as a result of high rate of miscarriages during harsh Jilaal season Reduced household income from livestock and livestock product (milk) sales Decline in terms of trade of local goat/cereals (119kg/head in June 2010 to 58kg in June 2011) MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation MAP 1: IPC, April 2011

23. NORTHWEST Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihoods NW Region Affected Livelihood Zones Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11GU 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Awdal NW Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle76,1590000 Fishing1,1490000 Golis Pastoral74,5920000 Guban Pastoral42,6120000 Sub-total194,5130000 Woqooyi Galbeed Fishing1,4370000 Golis Pastoral67,4550000 Hawd Pastoral70,8300000 NWAgro-past: Sorghum, cattle70,1910000 Sub-total209,9130000 Togdheer Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel23,6980000 Hawd Pastoral223,34714,000057,0000 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel11,9842,0000 Togdheer Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle19,8640000 Sub-total278,89316,000059,0002,000 Sanaag Fishing15,1930000 Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel56,5968,000020,0000 Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats30,4154,00008,0000 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel37,3963,00006,000 Potato Zone & Vegetables7,0520000 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral61,34710,000 5,00015,000 Destitute pastoralists 6,28906,0000 Sub-total214,28825,00016,00039,00027,000 Sool Hawd Pastoral30,1082,00008,0000 Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel72,6085,000010,00011,000 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral7,6972,0001,000 2,000 Destitute pastoralists 73001,0000 Sub-total111,1439,0002,00019,00014,000 GRAND TOTAL1,008,75050,00018,000117,00043,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE68,000160,00

24. NORTHWEST Rural Population in Crisis by Districts NW Regions Affected Districts UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11GU 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Awdal Baki16,9230000 Borama132,6950000 Lughaye22,0940000 Zeylac22,8010000 Sub-total194,5130000 Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera18,6830000 Gebiley53,7170000 Hargeysa137,5130000 Sub-total209,9130000 Togdheer Burco191,74812,000045,0002,000 Buuhoodle28,8212,00007,0000 Owdweyne30,9242,00007,0000 Sheikh27,4000000 Sub-total278,89316,000059,0002,000 Sanaag Ceel Afweyn53,6385,0001,00012,0005,000 Ceerigaabo83,7486,0004,00015,0007,000 Laasqoray/Badhan76,90214,00011,00012,00015,000 Sub-total214,28825,00016,00039,00027,000 Sool Caynabo24,0262,00004,0003,000 Laas Caanood50,6064,000010,0004,000 Taleex20,9832,0001,0003,0004,000 Xudun15,5281,000 2,0003,000 Sub-total111,1439,0002,00019,00014,000 Grand Total1,008,75050,00018,000117,00043,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE68,000160,000

25. NORTHWEST Urban Population in Crisis District UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitari an Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Awdal Baki 25,5008,577000000 Borama 215,61682,921000000 Lughaye 36,10414,010000000 Zeylac 28,2355,434000000 Sub-Total305,455110,942000000 Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera 60,75342,070000000 Gebiley 79,56425,847000000 Hargeysa 560,028422,515000000 Sub-Total700,345490,432000000 Togdheer Burco 288,21196,463000000 Buuhoodle 38,4289,607000000 Owdweyne 42,03111,107000000 Sheikh 33,6256,225000000 Sub-Total402,295123,402000000 Sanaag Badhan 55,0007,3222,000 553,0001,00055 Ceel Afweyn 65,79712,1594,0003,000585,0001,00049 Ceerigaabo 114,84631,09810,0007,0005513,0003,00051 Laasqoray 34,7245,5002,0001,000552,0001,00055 Sub-Total270,36756,07918,00013,0005523,0006,00052 Sool Caynabo 30,7026,6763,0000453,000045 Laas Caanood 75,43624,83012,00004812,000048 Taleex 25,3544,3712,0000462,000046 Xudun 18,7853,2572,0000612,000061 Sub-Total150,27739,13419,00004919,000049 Grand Total 1,828,739819,98937,00013,000642,0006,0006

26. The End