1. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Juba Regions Post GU 2011 17 th August 2011 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Information for Better Livelihoods

2. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations - Food security field analysts had a full access into all livelihoods of both regions

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agro pastoralists)  Southern Agropastoral in Middle Juba (Sakow /Salagle ) are more crop dependent, while southern agropastoral in L. Juba (Afmadow/Hagar) are more livestock dependent. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases  Lower Juba Agro pastoral: more livestock-dependent; main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases.  South-East Pastoral (cattle, goat /sheep): mainly situated in Lower Juba (38,810 people - 68%), but also have significant numbers in Middle Juba (18,232 people – 32%).  Riverine (M. and L. Juba): the livelihood is situated along the Juba river and extends to both regions but most of it is in Middle Juba (Sakow, Buale and Jilib districts – 57% of population; 43% in L. Juba disticts of Jammame and Kismayo). Main source of income of poor: crop sales, wage labor, self-employment (collection of bush products); main sources of food of poor: own production and market purchase Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: purchase  Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel (SIP), cattle (SEP), sheep/goat

4. Start of Season: Generally, started late, 3 rd Dekad of April, ended early in 2 nd Dekad of May with intermittent dry period in both regions. Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in terms of coverage and intensity, ended early in 2 nd of May 2011. Normal rains: In localized areas in terms of amount (pastoral livelihood in Afmadow) but poor frequency and distribution. Poor rains: whole districts of Sakow/Salagle in M. Juba, Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe in L. Juba experienced poor rainfall. Hagaa rains: late Hagaa rains received along the coastal strip of L. Juba (Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe) in 3 rd dekade of July 2011 Climate Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

6. Civil Security Situation: Remains highly volatile Military skirmishes along the Kenya /Somalia border Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Restricted trade movement across the borders from Somalia (Kismayo) to Kenya and vice versa. Limited population movement Restricted pastoral mobility, particularly in Diif, Tabata, Qooqaani and Jiira grazing lands in Afmadow district Civil Insecurity Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

7. Agriculture Gu 2011 Cereal Production Trends in Juba regions Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates Districts Gu 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA (1995-2010) Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average (2006-2010) MaizeSorghum Afmadow 201215%6%10% Hagar 83112%3%5% Badhaadhe 0000% Jamaame 2450 11%7%14% Kismaayo 450 3%6%9% Juba Hoose (Lower) Gu 2011 Total 31843216% 11% Juba Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates Districts Gu 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA (1995-2010) Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average (2006-2010) MaizeSorghum Bu'aale 180121928%10%13% Jilib 1750 5%4%6% Saakow 2000 3%6%5% Juba Dhexe (Middle) Gu 2011 Total 555125675%6%7%

8. Agriculture Gu 2011 Off season Maize in Juba regions DistrictsTotal CerealGu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Middle Juba4006% L. Juba503% Total4505%

9. Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates (L/M Juba) Regions Gu 2011, Cash Crop Production in MT RiceCowpeaSesameOnions Off-Season Cowpea Off-Season Sesame PepperTotal Juba Dhexe (Middle) 01400 070200 0 400 Juba Hoose (Lower) 0205 02501,800 02,080 TOTAL0160503202,00002,480

10. M.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production Agriculture

11. L.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production Agriculture

12. M. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011 Agriculture

13. L. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011

14. Maize Crop Failure. Janbarow, Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011 Poor Maize Crop. Buale, M.Juba, FSNAU, July 2011 Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos

15. Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos. Failed crop Malaaley, Jammame, L. Juba, July 2011 Crop failure. Yontoy, Kismaayo, L. Juba, July 2011 Empty underground storage Pit.Qed cajuso –Sakow July 2011

16. Juba regions receive maize from Kenya via Dhobley and Kismayo port as well as from Ethiopia (Somali Region) through Gedo region. Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow

17. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize), main markets in Middle Juba Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize), main markets in Lower Juba Factors influencing sorghum prices: Crop failure in riverine and agro- pastoral livelihoods Maize inflow from Kenya and Ethiopia High demand for cereals Middle Juba Lower Juba

18. Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability Factors influencing labor wage rates in agricultural districts: Limited agricultural activities following the poor Gu season performance Low labour demand Middle Juba Lower Juba

19. Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions Middle Juba Lower Juba Regional trends in purchasing power in Middle Juba (ToT daily labor to white maize): 3kg in Jul ‘11 vs 15kg in Jul ‘10 Factor Affecting ToT decline: Significant increase in maize prices. Decrease of daily wage rate Regional trends in purchasing power in Lower Juba (ToT daily labor to white maize): 4kg in Jul ‘11 vs 17kg in Jul ‘10

20. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, July 2011 Water availability is poor to average for all livelihoods of the two regions except riverine livelihood Average to poor pasture condition in all areas of coastal, pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihoods except river banks Average to poor body condition for camel and goats and poor for cattle and sheep. High in-migrations that caused depletion of pasture

21. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production RegionLivelihoods Conception (Gu ’11) Calving/kidding (Gu ‘11) Milk production (Gu ‘11) Expected calving/ kidding Jul – Dec ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘11) Livestock species Juba Southeast Pastoral Cattle: none to low Sh/goat: medium Cattle: none to low Sh/goat: low very low Cattle: none Sh/goat: medium Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: decreased (Below Baseline) Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: low Sh/goat: medium Camel: medium Sh/goat: low average for camel Camel: low Sh/goat: medium Camel: Increasing trend ( as Baseline) Sheep/goats: decrease (Below Baseline) Juba Agro-pastoral Cattle: none to low Sh/goat: medium Cattle: low Sh/goat: low very low Cattle: none Sh/goat: medium Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: decrease (Below Baseline)

22. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Poor cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo, Lower Juba, July 2011 Poor cattle body condition. Litila Sakow, Middle Juba, July 2011.

23. Livestock Regional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions Regional Trend in cattle Prices in Middle Juba (Jilib, Buale) : Cattle prices are 40% of June 2010 and 161% of January 2011. Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in Lower Juba (Afmadow & Kismayo): Declining trend: 49% compared to same month last year, and 103% of January 2011 Middle Juba Lower Juba Influencing factors: poor body condition, poor demand, high supply, poor condition on marketing route, prolonged drought )

24. Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions Regional Trend in ToT between Cattle to Maize: 107kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus 715kg/head in Jul ‘10 Middle Juba Lower Juba Regional Trend in ToT between Cattle to Maize: 105kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus 358kg/head in Jul ‘10

25. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Factors Influencing Commercial price Increases for imported commodities (last six months): Increased taxation on commercial imports High food and fuel prices on international markets Low local cereal supply leading to increased consumption of imported cereals, causing elevation in prices Markets

26. RegionNutrition Surveys (March – July 10) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Deyr ’09/10 Juba Juba Pastoral GAM =39.0 ( 35.2-42.9 ) SAM = 18.9 (16.0-22.3 % (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1) Juba Riverine GAM = 45.3 (41.0- 49.7) and SAM = 21.7 (18.7-25.0) (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1) Juba Agro-pastoral GAM = 34.4 (30.3-38.6) and SAM = 12.3 (9.5- 15.8) (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1) MUAC <12.5=19 MUAC <11.5=5 High and fluctuating number of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood s but decreasing in the riverine livelihoods’ facilities ( Source: Muslin AID, AFREC SRCS, MSF. HIS Data, Jan-June’11 R=3) OTP admission show mixed trends, with high and fluctuating number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP in pastoral and agro-pastoral, but low and fluctuating trends in the riverine facilities ( Source: Muslin AID, AFREC SRCS, MSF. HIS Data, Jan-June’11 R=3) Aggravating factors -High morbidity with pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine samples reportedly ill. -Limited access to health and feeding facility due to distance and insecurity -Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water -Suboptimal child care/feeding Mitigating factors - No mitigating factors has been noted Juba Pastoral – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration JubaRiverine: Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration Juba Agro- pastoral Very Critical – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

27. Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 JUBA Nutrition Situation Estimates Aggravating factors  Limited food access due to impact of drought on crop production and cattle and sheep  Poor humanitarian access limiting delivery of health and nutrition services  High morbidity and poor health seeking behaviors  Limited access to safe water, sanitation & health facilities  Poor infant and young child feeding Mitigating factors  Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral community (mainly camel)  Increased income from sale of fodder in riverine charcoal burning for income generation with long-term negative impact on the environment  Limited nutrition interventions on going Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)

28. JUBA Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation Key IPC Reference Outcomes Urban Population: Middle Juba: 100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLC Lower Juba: 75%P in HE; 25%P and 50%M in AFLC Rural Population: L& M Juba Southern Agropastoral (25% P-Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M -HE; 50% M – AFLC); L. Juba Agropastoral (25% P- Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M – AFLC); Juba Riverine (50% P -Famine and 50%P-HE; 100%M –HE); Juba South East Pastoral (100% P-HE; 100% M- AFLC ); Juba Southern Inland Pastoral (75% P- AFLC) Acute malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day, in HE facing severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day while lacking entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litres ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day -human usage only); AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping) Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); AFLC (emerging; diffuse) Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing) Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access) MAP 1: IPC, April 2011 MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

29. Juba Main Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation Aggravating Factors:  Late start of Gu 2011 rains with very poor, localized coverage and intensity;  Significant decrease in cereal production in riverine (maize) and complete failure in agropastoral (sorghum): L. Juba (321MT; 6% of PWA); M. Juba (567MT; 6% of PWA);  Absence of stocks following two consecutive seasons of crop failure  Poor pasture across the region except in the river banks that are infested with tsetse flies;  Shortage of water in the key pastoral areas due to poor rains and early depletion following the high livestock in-migration mainly from Kenya and Gedo region;  Decreased herd sizes and livestock holding (cattle, sheep/goat);  Poor livestock body conditions and decline in livestock production and reproduction (cattle, sheep & goats);  Significant increase in maize prices from a year ago (93% );  Unstable security situation- mainly along the border with Kenya – Dobley,Kulbiyow and Diif of Afmadow district – affecting trade movement  Low livestock prices (mainly for cattle) due to poor body conditions and poor access to Garissa market (shortage of pasture and water along the trekking routes and civil insecurity)  Increased taxation on commercial imports by local administration, contributing to food price increases;  Weak purchasing power: ToT of 4kg maize/labour wage (66% decline) and 25kg maize/local goat (72% decline) compared to June 2010;  Increased distress coping strategies (charcoal production, indebtedness); Mitigating Factors:  Sustained baseline levels of camel holdings and availability of milking animals in pastoral areas;  Hagaa off-season cash and cereal crop productions: L/M Juba (cowpea, sesame and maize);  Charcoal production despite low prices;  Limited food assistance, mainly from ICRC  Social support

30. Juba Rural Population in Crisis by District Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Famine Middle JubaBu'aale45,9018,0009,0007,00026,0005,000 Jilib83,46412,00013,00011,00037,0007,000 Saakow/Salagle54,77310,0008,0009,00026,0005,000 SUB-TOTAL184,13830,000 27,00089,00017,000 Lower JubaAfmadow/Xagar44,2127,0003,00014,000 2,000 Badhaadhe32,8287,0002,00012,00011,0001,000 Jamaame106,73412,00017,0007,00045,00010,000 Kismaayo77,3349,0006,00020,00022,0004,000 SUB-TOTAL261,10835,00028,00053,00092,00017,000 GRAND TOTAL445,24665,00058,00080,000181,000 34,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE123,000295,000

31. Juba Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11GU 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Famine Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,98400000 Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,2973,0006,000012,0003,000 Lower Juba Agro-Past8,7802,0001,0002,0004,0001,000 South-East Pastoral18,2324,0001,00010,0005,0000 Southern Agro-Past46,81612,0004,00013,00026,0004,000 Southern Inland Past22,725002,00000 Southern Juba Riv59,3049,00018,000042,0009,000 SUB-TOTAL184,13830,000 27,00089,00017,000 Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,35400000 Lower Juba Agro-Past70,18314,0007,00019,00034,0007,000 South-East Pastoral38,8109,0003,00021,00012,0000 Southern Agro-Past11,6373,0001,0003,0006,0001,000 Southern Inland Past50,1190010,00000 Southern Juba Riv57,0059,00017,000040,0009,000 SUB-TOTAL261,10835,00028,00053,00092,00017,000 GRAND TOTAL445,24665,00058,00080,000181,000 34,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE123,000295,000

32. Juba Urban Population in Crisis District UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Juba Dhexe (Middle) Bu'aale 59,48913,58807,0005207,00052 Jilib 113,41529,951015,00050015,00050 Saakow/Salagle 65,97311,20004,0003604,00036 Sub-Total 238,87754,739026,00047026,00047 Juba Hoose (Lower) Afmadow/Xagar 51,3347,1222,0000281,0002,00042 Badhaadhe 38,6405,8122,0000341,0002,00052 Jamaame 129,14922,4158,0000362,0006,00036 Kismaayo 166,66789,33316,0000188,00023,00035 Sub-Total 385,790124,68228,00002212,00033,00036 Grand Total 624,667179,42128,00026,0003012,00059,00040

33. The End