1. Somali Region Early warning department,Disaster concept & history of disaster 22 – 23 March 2012 March 22 -23 Jijiga

2. O VERVIEW 1.Introductory note on disasters 2.Overview of Disaster in Ethiopia 3.Hazard trends in the Somali Region 4.Learning from the past 5.Situation scenarios in 2011

3. I NTRODUCTION NOTE ON D ISASTERS  Cause h uman tragedy – Deaths, displacement & suffering  Cause crippling economic losses – costing countries millions  Hamper development – shifting of resources & logistical disruptions, halting progress of dev. projects  Increase future vulnerability to disasters  Increase dependence on humanitarian assistance  Increase social unrest & reduce political stability

4. O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA No of events : 1980-2010 No of people killed:313,486 No of people affected:57,382,354 Average affected per year:1,851,044 Ecomomic Damage (US$ X 1,000): 31,700 Ecomomic Damage per year (US$ X 1,000): 1,023

5. O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA Number of Disasters Reported

6. O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA Top 10 Disasters – Affected people DisasterDateAffectedRemark Drought200312,600,000 Drought19837,750,000 Drought19877,000,000 Drought19896,500,000 Drought20086,400,000 Drought20096,200,000 Drought19994,900,000 Drought20052,600,000 Drought1997986,200 Flood2006361,600

7. O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA Killed by Disaster Type

8. O VERVIEW OF D ISASTERS IN E THIOPIA No affected & Killed by Disaster Type

9. H AZARD T RENDS IN THE S OMALI R EGION  Major hazards in SRS: Droughts, diseases, Floods & Conflict  Drought is historically the biggest killer, followed by diseases  SRS is one of the most prone areas to droughts & conflicts  Droughts have grown in frequency over the last 2 decades  Recovery period is reduced, increasing vulnerability  Numbers of IDP & destitute groups are growing over time  Dependence on humanitarian assistance is therefore growing  Critical trend that has serious implications for Dev’t & security

10. H AZARD T RENDS IN THE S OMALI R EGION SRS Droughts 1999-2011 YearSeverityAffected areas 1999-2000Very severe7 Deyr receiving zones 2002-2003Very severeShinile & FIK 2004ModerateGode 2005SevereGode, Liban & Afder 2007SevereGode, Fik, Korahe, Warder & Dagahbur 2008Very severe& deyr receiving zones 2009Severe/ very severeAll the Region

11. L EARNING FROM THE PAST  One of the basic objectives of this workshop is to help us predict the likely social and economic consequences of 2011 gu failure  One way of predicting the future outcome of such an event is to look the outcome of a similar event in the past  Which drought year we need to choose for analysis?  The most similar in asset levels, market situation, migration pattern, disease prevalence and levels of stress  The most likely drought that comes into picture using such criteria is that of 2007-2008

12. L EARNING FROM THE PAST Comparison of the drought situations of 2007/08 & 20110/11

13. L EARNING FROM THE PAST Comparison of the drought situations of 2007/08 & 20110/11

14. L EARNING FROM THE PAST NDVI in May 2008

15. L EARNING FROM THE PAST NDVI in May 2008

16. L EARNING FROM THE PAST

20. S ITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011

21. S ITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2012 Basic current Facts Rains failed in seven zones led to  Emergency water tankering for around 1 million people  Emergency food requirement for 1.7 people  Likely increase of numbers and needs in the months ahead  Livestock in the deyr areas is facing dire feed & water scarcity  Animals failing to trek to water points & grazing areas already reported among the nugul species  A failure of the coming gu rains will be a decisive blow for both

22. S ITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011 Possible scenarios cases  Worst case scenario – complete failure of rains  Mid level case scenario – rains perform inadequately but rains do not fail completely – most likely scenario  Best case scenario – rains perform normal to good  Assumption – no large scale disease outbreaks and dramatic changes in other food security and livelihood parameters beyond the influence of rainfall.

23. S ITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011 Possible scenarios cases  Details of each scenario case will need to be developed  Its implications for response have to be clearly defined and quantified  Resource requirements and availability have to be identified in each case  The gap and potential sources and mechanisms of bridging that gap need to be also outlined.

24. Thank you