1. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Northeast Post Deyr 2010/11 26 th January 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2. Deyr 2010-11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage:

3. Performance of the Season Deyr 2010/11 Overall statement: The overall seasonal performance in Northeast was poor except in the localized areas of western Burtinle, Northern Galkacyo, Iskushuban and Caluula districts. Start of Season: Started on time in 3 rd dekad of September in Hawd along the border, but the rains were generally patchy and less intensive. Performance: No significant rains occurred in NE regions. Bari region: The overall rainfall performance was poor except in parts of Caluula district. Nugal region: Generally poor rainfall except from patchy rains along the borderline of western Burtinle district and Ethiopia. Northern Mudug: No rains in the entire region with the exception of localized areas in northern Galkacyo. Climate

4. Pasture and Browse condition Overall pasture and water availability deteriorated in most parts of Bari, Nugal and north Mudug regions with the exception of Caluula and localized area in western Burtinle, bordering with the Somali region of Ethiopia. Climate Vegetation Conditions NDVI at the end of December 2010

5. Water Situation : Availability & Access to Water in all Livelihood zones of Northeast is very poor as the Deyr rains missed. RFE shows 0-25mm which is 0-20% of the LTM Climate Water Conditions

6. Civil Insecurity Overall situation: Stable security situation in all of Northeast apart from: B/Beyla: Tension related to clan retaliation in localized rural areas of Beyla district. Galkacyo towns: Resource based conflict in northern Galkacyo Increased presence of sea pirates directly impacting fishing livelihoods.

7. Deyr 2010/11 Livestock Migration Livestock

8. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Conception (Deyr ‘10/11) Calving/kidding (Deyr ‘10/11) Milk production (Deyr ‘10/11) Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ’11 Herd Size Recovery Projected at (June 2011) LivelihoodsLivestock species Northeast Camel: none to low Sh/Goats: none to low Camel: Medium to Low in Bari & Mudug None in Mudug Sheep/Goat: Medium to low Camel: Low to none Sheep/Goat: low to none (Poor yield due to the drought ) Camel: Low in all regions Sheep/Goats: Low to None in Bari region But Low to medium in Nugal & Mudug regions Hawd Pastoral Camel: Slightly above Baseline. Slight decrease of 4% between Jun - Dec ’10 but expected to increase 21% in Jun ’11 Goat: Slightly below Baseline. Same as Jun ‘10 and projected unchanged in Jun 11. Nugal Valley Pastoral Sheep/Goats: Below Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to Decline by 43% till Jun ‘11 Sool Plateau Pastoral Sheep/Goats: Below Baseline. Decreased by 2% between Jun – Dec ’10 and is expected further decrease of 20 % till Jun ‘11 Addun Pastoral Camel: Same as baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 and is expected to increase by 23% in Jun ‘11 Sheep/goat: Same as Baseline. Slightly increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but declined by 4% in Jun ’11

9. Livestock Livestock Exports-Bossaso

10. Livestock Water Prices RAKO Kalabayr Significant water price increases starting from September indicating water shortages due to Deyr season rain failure Early commercial water trucking is ongoing in all livelihood zones Prices of water range is SoSh 80,000- 150,000 in Bari region. In Nugal and Mudug region the water price is between SoSh: 100,000-200,000 for one drum of water Accumulated debts of poor pastorals is mainly incurred with water for livestock and human. Debts level range US$ 300-400 in Bari region while in Nugaal & Mudug ranges US$ 200- 300

11. Water crisis in Galdogob Mudug, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Dried up shallow well. Xamurre, Qandala Bari, FSNAU, Dec ’10

12. Poor L/S feeding with leaves, Darmadow, Qandala, Bari, FSNAU, Dec. ’10 Carcasses of Deyr off-spring, Iskushuban, Bari, FSNAU, Dec. ’10 Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos

13. Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow

14. Markets Regional Trends in Cereal Prices (Red Rice) Regional trends in imported rice prices in: 1- Garowe market 2- Galkayomarket 3- Bosassomarket 12 3

15. Markets Livestock Prices Local goat prices: 1 -Garowe market 2 -Bossasomarket 3 -Galkayo market 12 3

16. Markets Terms of Trade (local quality goat/ rice) 1 -Garowe market 2 -Bossasomarket 3 -Galkayo market 1 2 3

17. Trend in imported commodity prices compared to exchange rate Markets

18. Region Nutrition Surveys (Oct –Dec10) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/ OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu 10 NEHawd Pastoral (n=593) GAM:13.0%&SAM:2.9 %; Oedema: 0.3% CMR: 0.30 / 10,000/day U5MR: 0.62 /10.000 Addun Pastoral=591 GAM: 12.0% SAM: 2.5% CMR:0.71/10,000/day&U5MR:1. 91/10,000/day. Golis/Dharoor - assess. N= 659 GAM: 11.1%, SAM: 2.1% CMR: 0.13 / 10,000/day U5MR: 0.3 /10.000/day Sool Plateau : assessm.N=637 GAM: 8.3%, SAM: 1.6% CMR: 0.45 / 10,000/day U5MR: 1.11 /10.000/day Coastal Deeh: Assess. N=670 GAM:12.5 % SAM: 2.5%; CMR: 0.38 / 10,000/day U5MR: 1.1 /10.000/day Nugaal assessment N=516 GAM:10.3%:SAM:1.0% CMR: 0.71 / 10,000/day U5MR: 1.91 /10.000/day Hawd: <12.5cm=3.7% <11.5cm=1.7% Addun: <12.5cm=2.8% <11.5cm=0.6% Golis:<12.5 cm=.5.1% <11.5cm=0. 5% Sool Plateau: <12.5cm=2.9 11.5cm=1.3% Coastal Deeh: <12.5cm= 6.5 <11.5cm= 2.5 Nugaal < 12.5cm= 4.2,<11.5cm= 1.2 Low proportion and but increasing in Hawd & Addun pastoral MCHs.(FSNAU, HIS, Jan – Dec’10, R=3). Low proportion and stable in Golis and Sool (Jan- Dec’10, R=3). Low Low proportion and stable (MOH, SRCS,Jan- Dec10, R=3) Low proportion and decreasing in Nugaal Valley( MOH,SRCS,Jan- Dec10, R=3) OTP data shows increasing trend in last 3 months (UNICEF,J an-Oct’10) Hawd/Addun: High morbidity and suboptimal child feeding is a concern Low access to safe water 30.9% & 61.7% latrine 35.1% &54.3% in Hawd and Addun respectively High morbidity: 34.6% in Hawd and 32.8% in Addun low coverage of health programmes<80 Golis, Sool plateau, Coastal & Nvaley High morbidity in Golis and Coastal Low food access (low frankincense production, fishing and high temperature, cyclone impact. Limited milk availability in Golis/karkaar. Poor infrastructure in Golis and coastal areas. Some mitigating factors Interventions in Hawd and Addun(health, nutrition, WASH and Food Aid) Gu impact on livestock Active social support High immunization status and Vit A supplementation except in Addun and Hawd. Ongoing Child Health Days. Hawd –Serious improvement from GU’10 Addun: Serious – Improved from post Gu’10 Very Critical Golis: Serious Improved from post Gu,10 Critical phase Sool Plateau: Sustained Alert since Gu ‘10 Coastal Deeh: sustained Serious since GU’10. Nugal Valley: Serious- deteriorated from Alert in Gu’10 Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

19. RegionNutrition Surveys (Oct -Dec10) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/ OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu 10 NEBossaso IDPs: Nut. assessment N=749 GAM:15.6 % SAM: 2.8%; CMR: 0.15 / 10,000/day U5MR: 1.24 /10.000/day Garowe IDPs: Nut. assessment N=761 GAM:13.3% SAM: 2.5%; CMR: 0.31 / 10,000/day U5MR: 0.41 /10.000/day Galkahyo IDPs: Nut. assessment N=869 GAM: 16.3 % SAM: 2.6%; CMR: 1 / 10,000/day U5MR: 1.5 /10.000/day Qardho IDPs: Nut. assessment N=214 GAM: >10.6 % SAM: 2.9%; CMR: / 10,000/day U5MR: /10.000/day Bossaso: <12.5cm= 15.1% <11.5cm= 4.3% Garowe IDPs: <12.5cm= 9.6% <11.5cm= 0.4% Galkahyo IDPs: <12.5cm= 5.1% <11.5cm= 0% Qardho IDPs: <12.5cm= 13.2% <11.5cm= 8.1% High>25 %, stable.(FSNAU, HIS, Jan –Dec ’10, R=3). N/A High OTP admission and increasing trend s in Bossaso ( Jan- Dec’10, R=2) Bossaso, Garowe and Galkacayo IDPs: High morbidity and suboptimal child feeding is a concern Poor Housing conditions Low access to safe water 28.5% %, 14.0%, 31.5% latrine 60.7 % & 41.7 %, and 65.4% in Bosaso, Garowe & Galkacayo IDPs respectively Limited access to milk and milk products Limited consumption of fruits and vegetables Some mitigating factors Child Health Days conducted in all IDPs. >80% of Vitamin A and Measles vaccination Coverage Access to humanitarian interventions No outbreak of diseases reported Bossaso IDPs Critical; improved from Gu’10 Very Critical phase Garowe IDPs: Sustained Serious since post Gu’10. Galkahyo IDPs: Critical - deteriorated from post Gu’10 from Serious Qardho IDPs Serious: Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

20. Nutrition Situation, July, 2010 Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation, January, 2010

21. Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11 Key IPC Reference Outcomes: HAWD: HE - NUGAL Eyl dist. (75% P HE; 25%P & 25%M AFLC); other districts (25%P HE, 75% P AFLC); Addun: HE -NUGAL & N. Mudug (50%P HE; 50%P AFLC; 100%M AFLC); Sool Plateau: BFI High Risk to AFLC(25%P AFLC); Coastal Deeh: BARI AFLC HR to HE(25%P HE; 75%P and 25%M AFLC); EYL and JARIBAAN – HE (100%P HE; 50%M AFLC); GOLIS-GAGAB – AFLC (100%P) -Watch Main Contributing Factors: Three previous seasons of poor rains (Golis/Gagaab and Karkaar/Dharoor zones) Below normal or failed Deyr 2010/11 rainfall in all livelihoods Failed production of frankincense and loss of fishing activities (East Golis/Gagaab, Coastal Deeh and Karkaar/Dharoor zones) Decreasing livestock herd sizes and low productivity High death of Deyr off-spring Low Terms of Trade Poor infrastructure and difficult market access

22. NE Regions - Affected Districts UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Bari Bandarbayla8,97600 1,000 Bossaso57,72515,0000 0 Caluula27,0028,0000 1,000 Iskushuban36,5195,0000 7,0001,000 Qandala26,9027,0000 0 Qardho/Dan Gorayo45,61300 3,0000 Sub-total202,73735,0000 41,0003,000 NorthMudug Gaalkacyo58,00720,00011,00022,0009,000 Galdogob33,3664,0006,000 4,000 Jariiban32,86616,0005,00016,0006,000 Sub-total 124,23940,00022,000 44,00019,000 Nugaal Burtinle26,0053,000 5,0002,000 Eyl25,2593,0002,000 6,0004,000 Garoowe24,5962,0003,000 2,000 Sub-total75,8608,000 14,0008,000 GRAND TOTAL 402,836 83,00030,00099,00030,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE113,000129,000 IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts

23. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones NE Regions - Affected Livelihood Zones Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Bari Coastal Deeh: sheep7,6991,0000 2,0003,000 East Golis Pastoral85,47426,0000 25,0000 Gagaab Pastoral28,5398,0000 9,0000 Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats32,79300 2,0000 Sool pastoral; camel&shoats48,23300 3,0000 Sub-total202,73735,0000 41,0003,000 NorthMudug Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel46,88630,0007,00030,0007,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep5,2592,0000 1,000 Destitute pastoralists7,12608,000 07,000 Hawd Pastoral64,9698,0007,000 13,0004,000 Sub-total124,46740,00022,00044,00019,000 Nugaal Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel4,2113,0001,000 3,0001,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep7,01400 1,0002,000 Hawd Pastoral43,1785,0006,000 8,0004,000 Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel15,77100 2,0000 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral4,21100 00 Destitute pastoralists1,47601,000 0 Sub-total75,8608,000 14,0008,000 GRAND TOTAL402,836 83,00030,000 99,00030,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 133,000 129,000

24. IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District District UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Deyr ‘10/11 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Deyr ‘10/11 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Deyr ‘10/11 Bari Bandarbayla 5,4002,000037 Bossaso 107,18136,000034 Caluula 13,0004,000031 Iskushuban 8,5083,000035 Qandala 15,6005,000032 Qardho 29,94410,000033 Sub-Total 179,63360,000033 Nugaal Burtinle 8,6694,000046 Dan Gorayo 5,5993,000054 Eyl 7,0863,000042 Garoowe 33,39515,000045 Sub-Total 54,74925,000046 North Mudug Galdogob 7,0672,000028 Jariiban 6,3412,000032 Sub-Total 13,4084,000030

25. The End