1. Food Security Update
28 July 2016

2. The bulk of the country will in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)
June to September 2016
October 2016 to January 2017

3. Lower than typical regional maize availability 2016-17
South Africa
Zambia
Carry over stocks
2.3 million Mt (mainly from imports)
Production
7.73 million Mt (40% of ave)
Deficit
1.6 million Mt
Est. Exports
600,000 Mt
Est. Imports
3.3 Million Mt (1ml Mt white, 2.2 MT yellow maize)
Carry over stocks
667,500 Mt
Production
2.87 million Mt (10% above 2015)
Surplus
634,700 Mt
Est. Exports
167,000 Mt to Spt (old contracts)
Est. Imports
0 Mt

4. Higher than typical maize grain imports
April-June 2016 maize imports (174,000 MT) are 62% higher than same time last year (107,000 MT)
Of the April-June ‘16 imports, 45% from SA, 19% Zambia, the rest (36%) from international markets.
Landing prices from international markets significantly higher than from regional markets

5. Projected higher than average maize grain prices for 2016-17 marketing season

6. Key Assumptions for the June 1’6 to Jan ‘17 Outlook Period
Higher than normal cereal deficit – June 2016 to January 2017
Poor water availability: June to October
Normal to above normal rains: November 2016 to March 2017
Maize grain prices: higher than last year and 5-year
Maize meal prices: expected increase later in the consumption year
Livelihoods options: below average (cash crop sales, livestock sales, agric & non-agric labor & self employment, remittances); also below average labor rates
Acute malnutrition: high and increasing
Inter-annual and emergency assistance: resource constraints

7. Critical water shortages in much of the south and marginal areas in the north to impact on livelihoods

8. Below average typical livelihoods and coping options