1. PACAPS Early Warning/Response Mandera Triangle response strategy for pastoral communities
June 11th, 2009
UNICEF Nairobi

2. Relationships of RELPA Implementation Activities
CAADP – Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program – African owned agenda led by African governments
Objectives: To accelerate growth, eliminate poverty & hunger among African countries
(refer to achievement of MDG 1) reducing hunger & poverty by half in COMESA countries by year 2015

3. Livelihoods Information & Response Support Key Objectives
Regional coordination, analysis & policy support
Improve capacity of ELMT partners to support timely and harmonised livelihoods-based cross-border relief interventions
Regional Early Warning & Early Response
Improved regional EW/ER analytical approaches
Enhanced regional coordination of information and response – to add value to existing national and local EW information bases

4. Livelihoods Framework
1 the context
3a food
3b cash income
2 The level of assets
3c expenditure/
consumption

5. Livelihoods Framework
The population is ‘disaggregated’ according to
a) where they live ….
HEA defines a geographical area in which the economic opportunities available are broadly the same (a “livelihood zone”).
b) and who they are…
In each zone, we can say that all households with the same level of assets have the same access to the same opportunities and so meet their needs in similar ways. The population is divided into groups of households with roughly the same level of assets (economic classes or “wealth groups”).
c) and their seasonal access to food, income and change in expenditure patterns.

7. Generic pastoral baseline calendar
INDICATORS
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
NORMAL
Rainfall
long rains
short rains
Livestock births
cows calve
shoats kidding
camels calving
(some camel births)
Cows Milk
Camel's milk
min milk
Livestock prices
l'stock price down 20-30%
l'stock prices high
Grain prices
harvest
low
high
Water access cows
migration for water
Water access camels
Debts
debts build up
seasonal debts repaid

8. “response to crises is often too late ”
The problem
“response to crises is often too late ”
Which results in:
Massive asset depletion
Livelihoods ever more fragile
Only response possible is life-saving, not livelihood protection
drought interventions despite late were the largest known by Kenya in terms of amount of funds made available, types of interventions carried out.
National and international agencies already on ground responded by rapidly adapting existing livelihood interventions to respond to the crisis. However there was not coordination between the long term programming and emergency response.
2006 – acute = 40% - 70% livestock died

9. The ‘normal’ year Sep-Oct Nov-Dec Jan-Feb Mar-Apr May-June Jul-Aug
Rainy
season
short
rains  
cattle & goat births
goat births
milk
l'stock price high
l'stock price -25%
grain price up 50%
grain price falls
Milk ends

10. The Oct/Nov rains fail…
Sep-Oct
Nov-Dec
Jan-Feb
pasture declining
pasture very bad, water scarce
normal births
cattle condition declining
milk
milk ends early
early migration (cattle)
abnormal distant migration
high l'stock price
low demand for l'stock, low price
reluctance to sell, expecting rains
Debts not repaid
Debts accumulating
Grain price?
List other livelihood impacts – expansion on existing coping strategies – need to know livelihood context to plan appropriate response

11. The April/May rains fail….
Mar-Apr
May-June
Jul-Aug
poor rain
no pasture
almost no pasture recovery
water very scarce
cattle condition very
Poor.
old & weak start to die
L’stock mortality increasing
high l'stock mortality
v. low demand for
l'stock, v. low price
almost no demand
for l'stock.
Exploitation price
Distress sales to repay loans
Grain price ?

12. What could we do to help? Protect core breeding herds for recovery
Improve income from l’stock (condition/price)
Reduce grain prices
Alternative income or food

13. What could we do to help? Possible ‘projects’: animal health
fodder supply (distribution, sale, production and marketing)
water support (trucking, water sources)
marketing (l’stock and/or grain)
support to migration
and
free food distribution, CFW or FFW, etc.

14. When is ‘on time’?
animal health: before pasture disappears, before rains?
fodder supply: when condition affects price, when breeding animals in danger?
l’stock marketing: when prices and/or demand are ‘excessively’ low
Note that ‘on time’ is NOT determined by humanitarian situation (except CFW), but by the nature of the intervention and the calendar

15. When is ‘on time’? Vet care Vet care Fodder marketing Sep-Oct Nov-Dec
Jan-Feb
Mar-Apr
May-June
Jul-Aug
poor rains
no rain
poor rain
pasture
declining
very scarce
none
l'stock condition
v. poor
old & weak dying
mortality increasing
high m’tality
l'stock market
high
low demand & price
v. low demand & price
no demand, exploitation price
Vet care
Vet care
CHANGE MONTHS!!!!!!
Fodder
marketing

16. When do decisions need to be taken ?
Activities don’t start the day we decide to implement them.
Decisions need to be taken by a date that allows start up of implementation on time.
So, if it takes 8 weeks from decisions to implementation, then decisions need to be taken at least 8 weeks before the latest appropriate date to start implementation

17. Fodder distribution start-up timeline
ACTIVITIES
Time
Identify intervention areas, partners
1 week
identify beneficiaries
Identify and source feeds
Proposal writing, internal approval
2 weeks
Communication with donor
Procurement process
3 weeks
transport of feeds
10 days
Start-up timeline
3 months
PACAPS thinks this is far too optimistic – definitely a best case scenario.
Show how
Really ??

18. When is ‘on time’? 3 months Fodder Fodder decision making Sep-Oct
Nov-Dec
Jan-Feb
Mar-Apr
May-June
Jul-Aug
poor rains
no rain
poor rain
pasture
declining
very scarce
none
l'stock condition
v. poor
old & weak dying
mortality increasing
high m’tality
l'stock market
high
low demand & price
v. low demand & price
no demand, exploitation price
3 months
Point out how if you make the decision early Nov, you implement February at the earliest. This is exactly what has been happening in 2005!
Fodder
Fodder decision making

19. When is ‘on time’? 2 months Marketing decision making marketing
Sep-Oct
Nov-Dec
Jan-Feb
Mar-Apr
May-June
Jul-Aug
poor rains
no rain
poor rain
pasture
declining
very scarce
none
l'stock condition
v. poor
old & weak dying
mortality increasing
high m’tality
l'stock market
high
low demand & price
v. low demand & price
no demand, exploitation price
2 months
Marketing decision making
marketing
If you provide capital for marketing, then time lines are much longer.

20. When is ‘on time’? Vet care Vet care decision making Sep-Oct Nov-Dec
Jan-Feb
Mar-Apr
May-June
Jul-Aug
poor rains
no rain
poor rain
pasture
declining
very scarce
none
l'stock condition
v. poor
old & weak dying
mortality increasing
high m’tality
l'stock market
high
low demand & price
v. low demand & price
no demand, exploitation price
Vet care
Vet care decision making

21. Objectives of the response analysis
Identify geographical areas of concern
Identify vulnerable groups
Understand how the vulnerable groups’ livelihood is affected
Quantify the impact of the crisis/es
Identify appropriate response & realistic start-up timelines
Coordinate who is best placed to do what when in each sector – link to response coordination bodies
Discuss how these responses can compliment development programmes and contribute to long term strategies

22. Steps of the response analysis
Give an up-to-date situation report on the area of concern – verify with partners working on ground
Compare the current situation with trend data
Incorporate the impact of the current situation into the livelihood calendar
Identify who are most affected?
Quantify the impact of the combination of different ‘shocks’ on a household
Predict the impact on households’ access to basic needs based on the hypothesis
Working through the livelihood calendar – analyse which response would be appropriate when
Establish start-up timeline to incorporate into the response strategy
Ensure this is included in contingency plans (district, organisation)
Link this to response coordination – who does what where when

23. Pay closer attention to distribution
Seasonal Rainfall Performance (Percent of Normal)
MAM 2006
MAM 2007
MAM 2008
MA 2009
0.13M ()
OND 2006
OND 2007
OND 2008
1.3M ()
0.7M ()
3.2M ()
2.7M ()
Pay closer attention to distribution

24. Non-Climatic Factors – Declining Terms of Trade
Steady decline in the goat prices in the pastoral
This is a consistent effect of the past successive rainfall failures, insecurity and occurrence of Peste Petite Des Ruminants (PPR).
Decreased food access manifesting through high malnutrition rates and reduced income.
Reduction of essential household expenditure
Negative coping strategies
0.13M ()
6.4M ()
1.3M ()
0.7M ()
3.2M ()

28. Response Recommendations
Interventions to be prioritised now
Water trucking for humans if rains fail
Fodder distribution although start-up time is late (cost benefit)
Continue food aid although may need to scale up ration size or coverage – no mention of cash alternatives
Decision made and start up for fodder distribution
Decision and start up for emergency destocking
Develop forums - negotiate the use of conflict grazing land
Ensure poorer HHs can access water distributed by Water Ass.
Long term interventions to compliment humanitarian response
Population planning
Long term National resource/rangeland improvement for marginalized areas
Developing alternative livelihoods for the pastoralists

29. Lessons Learnt from response analysis
National early warning information does not always reflect the current situation on ground
Regional trend data is useful
Response analysis should be regular
Opportunities of incorporating nut/watsan into livelihood calendar
Dry season response should be standard & integrated into normal response/programme design in drought prone areas
Each emergency response should be designed to compliment and maintain the good work of development programs
We need a clear long-term vision for pastoralists developed by all stakeholders
Improve food aid targeting - traditional sharing is common
Interventions need to incorporate community sensitization on conflict and population growth issues

30. Nutritional Opportunities
Incorporate food access within the normal calendars (all food groups)
Identify trends of seasonal disease prevalence & possible seasonal causes
Identify changes in these during dry season or drought scenarios
Incorporate appropriate and timely nutritional/health interventions within the response analysis
Address multi-sectoral underlying causes rather than focuses on one sector response strategies