1. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia
Post Gu 2011
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia
17th August , 2011
Information for Better Livelihoods
Shabelle Regions
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC
EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
Field Access and Coverage in Shabelle Regions:
Food Security Field analyst in Lower Shabelle travelled to all districts for assessment of crop, livestock and market conditions.
Food security Field analyst Middle Shabelle covered rural areas of Balad, Jowhar, Cadale and Aden Yabal districts. 2

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income:
Riverine livelihood:
Primary sources of income of poor: sale of crops, agricultural labour, and self employment.
Primary food sources of poor: Own crop and purchase.
Primary livelihood asset of poor: Agriculture land
Agropastoral Livelihoods (Agropastoral Maize/cattle and Agropastoral Sorghum/cattle)
Agropastoral Maize/Cattle. Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food of poor: own production(maize) and purchase.
Agropastoral Sorghum/Cattle. Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food : own production(Sorghum) and purchase.
Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland Pastoral and South east Pastoralists)
Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products
Primary sources of food of poor: purchase
Primary livelihood asset of poor: Camel, Sh/goat (SIP), cattle (SEP),

4. Climate Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall
Overall statement: Performance of Gu rains was poor in all livelihoods.
Start of the season: started late, in 3rd dekad of April, in most livelihoods of the Shabelle regions and ended in 3rd of May 2011.
Temporal and spatial distribution: localized and poor distribution with low intensity.
Satellite imagery indicate cumulative rainfall(April-May) of 0-20% of normal in most areas of Shabelle regions.
Certain area in Lower shabelle (South of Brava & Wanleweyn) indicate 20-40% of normal
Localized areas of Middle Shabelle bordering with Hiran indicate % of normal.
Hagaa Rains: Along coastal areas of main Lower Shabelle (Baraawe, Sablaale, Kurtunwarey, Marka, Qoryoley and Afgoye) average Hagaa started in late July 2011
Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

5. Vegetation Conditions
Climate
Vegetation Conditions

6. Civil Insecurity Civil Security Situation:
High political tension among TFG and religious groups in Mogadishu affected Shabelle valley
Increasing threats and limited humanitarian space
The development of security situation of Shabelle valley is uncertain
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:
New IDP camp in km 50 managed by Al-Shabab
Displaced people in the corridor between Mogadishu and Balad as well as Mogadishu and Afgoye
Market disruption mainly in the districts surrounding Mogadishu
Restriction of humanitarian intervention - negative impact on access to food and basic services (IDPs health posts and feeding centers) 6

7. Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates 7 7
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates
Districts
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Total Cereal
Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010
Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA ( )
Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average ( )
Maize
Sorghum
Adan Yabaal 0%
Balcad
1,200
560
1,760
20%
37%
41%
Cadale
Jowhar/Mahaday
1,260
350
1,610
13%
15%
21%
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Gu 2011 Total
2,460
910
3,370
16%
22%
28%
Shabelle Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates
Districts
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Total Cereal
Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010
Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA ( )
Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average ( )
Maize
Sorghum
Afgooye
1,040
300
1,340
10%
12%
16%
Baraawe
500
19%
37%
51%
Kurtunwaarey
2,800
23%
35%
33%
Marka
5,200
39%
24%
38%
Qoryoley
7,350
61%
60%
77%
Sablale
900
29%
46%
41%
Wanla Weyne
540
4,500
5,040
56%
79%
81%
Shabelle Hoose (Lower) Gu 2011 Total
18,330
4,800
23,130
47% 7 7

8. Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in Middle Shabelle
Gu 11 Cereal Production Trends
(1995 – 2011)
Annual Cereal Production Trends
(1995 – 2011)

9. Gu 11 Cereal Production Trends Annual Cereal Production Trends
Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in Lower Shabelle
Gu 11 Cereal Production Trends
(1995 – 2011)
Annual Cereal Production Trends
(1995 – 2011)

10. Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in Shabelle Regions - Combined

11. Regional Contribution of Gu 2011 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia
Agriculture
Regional Contribution of Gu 2011 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia

12. Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates
Middle Shabelle: Cowpea,Sesame, Rice Production Estimates
Districts
Gu 2010 Production in MT
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Cowpea
Sesame
Rice
Adale 60
Adanyabal 30 50 40
Balad
240
200 15
Jowhar
300
500
4500 10
1020
Total
630
700
135
100
1,020
Lower Shabelle: Cowpea, Sesame, Rice Production Estimates
Districts
Gu 2010 Production in MT
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Cowpea
Sesame
Rice
Afgoye
510 60 15
Barawe 90
120
Kurtunwarey
150
600 25 50
Merka
1600
100
Qorioley 20 47
Sablale 80 30
Wanlaweyne 40
Total
2390
1110
127 12 12

13. Agriculture Gu 2011 Off-season Maize Estimates(Mt)– Lower Shabelle
District
Maize crop (MT)
Afgoye
425
Baraawe
1,100
Kurtunwarey
525
Marka
810
Qoryoley
400
Sablaale
500
Total
3,760

14. Good Rice Crop. Barey, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Good Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011
Good Maize Performance. Idow gudow K/warey, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011
Good Rice Crop. Barey, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011
Poor Maize Crop. Malayley,Qorioley,Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011

15. Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow:
Shabelle regions supply limited maize to Banadir (Mogadishu), south Galgadud (El Dheer) and Hiran.
Middle Shabelle supplies some amount of sorghum to Mogadishu.
Lower Shabelle gets limited amount of sorghum from Bay.

16. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Shabelle regions
Trends in Maize Prices:
(Jowhar)
Factors influencing maize prices:
Poor maize crop production in all livelihoods. It is observed a decreasing trend of maize prices between June and July 2011 due to supply from the current Gu harvest.
Low maize supply
High demand for maize due to crop production failure in southern Somalia
Trends in Maize Prices:
(Merka, Afgoye and Qorioley)

17. Labour Rates & Availability
Agriculture
Labour Rates & Availability
Middle Shabelle (Jowhar)
Factors Influencing Wage Labour Availability:
Stable wage rates in M. Shabelle due to on-going cash-crop activities in the riverine
Low agricultural activities during Gu season due to poor seasonal performance
Low labour demand
Increase of labour wages in Lower Shabelle in July due to Gu harvest and Hagaa planting
Civil insecurity
Lower Shabelle

18. Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Shabelle
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Labor to Maize – M. Shabelle – Jowhar market
(5 kg/ daily wage rate in Jul ‘11 vs 7kg in Jul’10)
Factor Affecting ToT decline:
Significant increase in Maize prices
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Labor to Maize – L. Shabelle – Afgoye, Merka and Qoryoley markets
(4 kg/ daily wage rate in Jul ‘11 vs 8kg in Jul’10)

19. Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration in Gu 2011
Water availability is poor to average in most agropastoral livelihoods of the two regions
Average pasture condition in riverine and Wanlaweyn. Currently, coastal areas of Lower Shabelle have average pasture condition as a result of on-going Hagaa rains. However, poor pasture in key pastoral and other agropastoral areas of Shabelle regions.
Average body condition for camel and poor for sheep/goats and cattle
Normal livestock migration for both regions
Average milk production for camel and slight decline of milk prices yet higher than in the last year 19

20. Livestock Sector Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region
Livelihoods
Conception
(Gu ’11)
Calving/kidding
(Gu ‘11)
Milk production
Expected calving/ kidding
Jul – Dec ‘11
Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘11)
Livestock species
M/L Shabelle
Shabelle Agro-pastoral
Sh/goat: low
Camel: low
Cattle: none
Camel: medium
Cattle: low
Average for camel
All Species: decreased trend

21. Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: Lower Shabelle
Livestock
Trends in Goat Prices and Terms of Trade - L.Shabelle
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: Lower Shabelle
Factors Influencing Local Goat prices:
High supply of livestock into markets
Poor livestock body condition
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: Middle Shabelle

22. Livestock Trends in Terms of Trade – Shabelle Regions
Regional Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade: Lower Shabelle (46 kg/head in Jul ‘11 vs 138 kg/head in Jul ‘10)
Factors Influencing TOT (goat to red sorghum):
High cereal prices
Decreased livestock prices due to poor body condition and increased supply on markets.
Regional Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade Middle Shabelle (57 kg/head in Jul ‘11 vs 115 kg/head in Jul ’10)

23. Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Shabelle regions
Livestock
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Shabelle regions
Mixed Livestock Body Condition
Poor Cattle Body Condition. Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011.
Poor Cattle Body Condition. Cadale, Middle Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011
Poor Cattle Body Condition. Kurtunwarey, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011. 23

24. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price increase (last six months)
Poor crop production and shifting to imported cereals
Increased fuel prices
Increased prices on international markets
Reduced number of vessels due to piracy threat
Persistent fighting in Mogadishu
Disruption of main distribution markets in Mogadishu following the conflict.

25. Nutrition: Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Nutrition Surveys
(July 11)
Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm % < 11.5cm)
Health Information System Info
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Other relevant information – Key driving factors
Summary of analysis and change from Deyr 10/11
Shabelle
M. Shabelle Riverine
N=746
GAM =19.6 ( )
SAM= 8.2( )
CMR =1.71 ( )
U5MR= 5.19 ( )
M. Shabelle Agro-pastoral
N=590
GAM =35.3 ( )
SAM =17.1 ( )
CMR =2.28 ( )
U5MR = 6.84 ( )
L. Shabelle Riverine
N=804
GAM =28.7 ( )
SAM =14.2 ( )
CMR =5.93 ( )
U5MR = ( )
L.Shabelle Agro-pastoral
N=799
GAM =40.6 ( )
SAM= 20.9 ( )
CMR =4.21 ( )
U5MR = ( )
Afgoye IDPs
N=951
GAM =40.7 ( )
SAM =17.7 ( )
CMR= 4.24 ( )
U5MR = ( )
Mogadishu IDPs
N=870
GAM =39.4 ( )
SAM =15.3 ( )
CMR= 4.29 ( )
U5MR = 14.09( )
<12.5 GAM= 22.6 ( )
<11.5 SAM = 8.4 ( )
<12.5 GAM= 35.3 ( )
<11.5 SAM = 17.1( )
<12.5 GAM= 36.0 ( )
<11.5 SAM = 14.0 ( )
L. Shabelle Agro-pastoral
<12.5 GAM= 37.8(12.20)
<11.5 SAM = 12.2 ( )
Afgoye IDPS
<12.5 GAM= 26.3( )
<11.5 SAM = 8.8 ( )
Mogadishu IDPS
<12.5 GAM= 25.4( )
<11.5 SAM = 7.50( )
High (>15%) and stable trends July-Dec ‘10, consistent with ‘09 trends
High (>20%) and increasing trends July-Dec ‘10, higher than ‘09 trends
High (>20%) and stable trends
High (>20%) and increasing trends
Overall Aggravating Factors:
Civil insecurity - Mogadishu remains the epicenter
Limited Humanitarian space; displacement associated with civil insecurity
Increasing number of IDPs moving into Mogadishu town
Disease outbreaks- AWD, cholera, measles
Limited access to health centers
Overall Mitigating Factors:
Limited access to SF programs
Social support
M. Shabelle Riverine – Deterioration from likely very critical to very critical and situation is likely to deteriorate further
M. Shabelle Agrop -
Deterioration from likely very critical to very critical and situation is likely to deteriorate further
L. Shabelle Riverine – Deterioration from likely very critical to very critical and situation is likely to deteriorate further
Situation has remains very critical in Gu ’11 just as had been in Deyr 10
Very Critical and likely to deteriorate 25

26. Shabelle Nutrition Situation Estimates Aggravating factors:
Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation ( )
Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011
Aggravating factors:
Limited food production and high price of food resulting from the drought
Increased population displacements
Limited humanitarian space for interventions
Outbreaks of diarrhoea, cholera, measles and whooping cough reported in the region
Very limited access to health centers in the area
Mitigating factor:
Access to humanitarian interventions in Mogadishu
Social support

27. SHABELLE Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes
Urban Population:
Middle Shabelle: 100% Pand 25% of Middle HE; 75% Middle AFLC
Lower Shabelle: 100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLC
Rural Population
Middle Shabelle
Riverine (50% P Famine; 50% P HE and 100%M HE)
Southern Agropastoral (100% P- Famine; 100%M-HE);
Cowpea (50% P Famine; 50% P - HE and 100% M – HE); Southern Inland Pastoral (100% P-HE; 50%M-AFLC)
Coastal (50%P Famine; 50%P-HE and 100% M HE)
Lower Shabelle
Riverine (100% P Famine; 50%M HE; 50% M AFLC M);
Southern Agropastoral (Wanlaweyne 100% P in HE; 50%M AFLC; the rest of the districts are 100% P in Famine; 100% M HE);
Southeast Pastoral (100% P - Famine; 100% M- HE);
Coastal (100% P Famine; 50% M-HE and 50% M AFLC)
Southern Inland Pastoral (100% P Famine; 50% M HE and 50% M AFLC)
Acute malnutrition: Very Critical and likely to deteriorate
Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day ; in HE face severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day, while those in AFLC lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping
Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litres ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day -human usage only); AFLC litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping
Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); AFLC (emerging; diffuse)
Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference). AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing)
Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access)
MAP 1: IPC, April 2011
MAP 2: IPC, Gu 2011

28. SHABELLE Main Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation
Aggravating Factors:
Poor crop production (L. Shabelle – 37% PWA; M. Shabelle – 22% PWA) resulting from poor Gu
rains in Somalia and upper river catchments, low river levels and poor irrigation infrastructure
(mainly in Middle Shabelle)
Lack of cereal stocks (poor and lower middle households) as a result of very low cereal
production in Lower Shabelle (Deyr 2010 and Gu 2011) and Middle Shabelle (since Gu 2008)
High influx of livestock from neighboring regions towards riverine areas exerting pressure on
the limited pasture resources (particularly L. Shabelle)
Deteriorated livestock (cattle) body condition and limited milk production
Declined cattle herd size in both regions
Increased food prices (local and imported commodities) due to low supply of local cereals
Decrease in livestock prices (30-40% since June ‘10)
High supply of labour in riverine areas leading to the decline in labour wage rates
Weak purchasing power: ToT maize and labour (7 to 3kg/wage); ToT goat and maize (135 to
55kg/head) and ToT cattle to maize (565 to 177kg/head)
Trade restrictions due to high political confrontation among opposing groups in the regions
Limited humanitarian space
High IDP concentration in Balad and Afgoye Corridor
Mitigation Factors:
Expected off-season maize production following Hagaa rains in Lower Shabelle to improve
local cereal availability
Agricultural labour opportunities from off-season planting in L. Shabelle and cash crop activities in
both regions.
Below average (75% of PWA) of sorghum production in main sorghum producing district
(Wanlaweyne) of Lower Shabelle
Cash crop production (sesame, cowpea, rice, citrus, vegetables, banana, etc.)
Improved access to Mogadishu (for labour and humanitarian aid)
Social support

29. SHABELLE Rural Population in Crisis by District
Affected Regions and District
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Famine
M/ Shabelle
Adan Yabaal
55,717
7,000
40,000
5,000
Balcad/Warsheikh
105,266
22,000
68,000
23,000
Cadale
35,920
26,000
3,000
Jowhar/Mahaday
222,167
36,000
17,000
106,000
46,000
SUB-TOTAL
419,070
70,000
240,000
77,000
Total Affected Population in AFLC & HE
87,000
334,000
Affected Regions and District
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Famine
L/ Shabelle
Afgooye/Aw Dheegle
178,605
5,000
83,000
44,000
Baraawe
42,239
1,000
18,000
9,000
Kurtunwaarey
48,019
4,000
20,000
11,000
Marka
129,039
12,000
53,000
37,000
Qoryooley
111,364
10,000
46,000
28,000
Sablaale
35,044
2,000
16,000
Wanla Weyn
133,627
35,000
SUB-TOTAL
677,937
69,000
280,000
138,000
Total Affected Population in AFLC & HE
487,000

30. SHABELLE Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Famine
M/ Shabelle
Central Agro-Past
36,695
5,000
25,000
Coastal Deeh: sheep
93,722
12,000
23,000
6,000
Shabelle Riverine
53,657
11,000
39,000
Southern Agro-Past
160,948
42,000
87,000
55,000
Southern Inland Past
74,048
17,000
19,000
Destitute pastoralists
46,861
47,000
SUB-TOTAL
419,070
70,000
240,000
77,000
Total Affected Population in AFLC & HE
334,000
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Famine
L/ Shabelle
Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle
2,534
1,000
L.Shab. r/fed & f/irr
372,273
187,000
84,000
Shabelle Riverine
115,552
30,000
45,000
South-East Pastoral
6,884
15,000
8,000
Southern Agro-Past
106,902
9,000
29,000
37,000
Southern Inland Past
73,793
10,000
11,000
SUB-TOTAL
677,937
69,000
280,000
138,000
Total Affected Population in AFLC & HE
487,000

31. SHABELLE Urban Population in Crisis
District
UNDP 2005 Total Population
UNDP 2005 Urban Population
Deyr
Gu 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC
Humanitarian Emergency (HE
Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
Adan Yabaal
62,917
7,200
2,000 28
3,000 42
Balcad
120,434
28,106
6,000 21
8,000
Cadale
46,720
10,800
4,000 37
Jowhar
218,027
36,844 22
11,000 30
Mahaday
51,230
10,246 20 29
Warsheikh
15,573
2,635
1,000 38
Sub-Total
514,901
95,831
22,000 23
30,000 31
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
Afgooye
135,012
21,602
7,000
5,000
15,000 93
Aw Dheegle
76,700
11,505 43 96
Baraawe
57,652
15,413 32
Kurtunwaarey
55,445
7,426 40
Marka
192,939
63,900 45
29,000
Qoryooley
134,205
22,841 35
Sablaale
43,055
8,011
Wanla Weyn
155,643
22,016 36
850,651
172,714
17,000
53,000 41
79,000 50
Grand Total
1,365,552
268,545
39,000 64
109,000 44

32. The End