1. Evidence for Effective Food Security Decisions John Scicchitano USAID/Food For Peace FEWS NET Program Manager Horn of Africa Vegetation Feb 2012 vs. Feb 2011

2. Geography of food insecurity 2 Food Security Conditions Somalia March 2012

3. Magnitude of food insecurity 33 ________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Ethiopia 2012 Beneficiary Estimates 1,2 REGION LOW MID HIGH AFAR 100,000 120,000 140,000 AMHARA 660,000 780,000 890,000 OROMIA 1,860,000 2,190,000 2,520,000 SNNPR 410,000 490,000 560,000 SOMALI 1,060,000 1,250,000 1,430,000 TIGRAY 360,000 420,000 480,000 OTHER REGIONS (Dire Dawa, Harari, Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella) 90,000 100,000 130,000 TOTAL 4,540,000 5,350,000 6,150,000 1 6-month equivalent 2 Reflects local population needs only. Does not include refugee needs.

4. Severity of food insecurity 4 Food Security Conditions Oct-Dec 2011

5. 5 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK PHASESUMMARY DESCRIPTION (AREA) PHASE 1 Minimal Households are able to meet basic food needs and afford essential non-food expenditure without a reliance on coping strategies or humanitarian assistance. PHASE 2 Stressed For at least 1 in 5 households, food consumption is reduced but minimally adequate without having to engage in unsustainable coping strategies. However, these households are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures. PHASE 3 Crisis At least 1 in 5 households face significant food consumption gaps with high or above usual acute malnutrition, or is marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with unsustainable coping strategies such as liquidating livelihood assets. PHASE 4 Emergency At least 1 in 5 households face extreme food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition or excess mortality, or faces extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption gaps. PHASE 5 Famine At least 1 in 5 households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs. Starvation, death, and destitution are evident.

6. Timing of food insecurity 6 Seasonal Context Somalia

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8. Who is FEWS NET? Inter-Agency Agreement ContractsInter-Agency Agreement 27 year-old activity 8 Kimetrica National, Regional, International institutions

9. 24 FEWS NET offices 18 Africa - National 3 Africa - Regional 1 Haiti 1 Guatemala 1 Afghanistan Non-presence coverage of others Nationality of FEWS Field Representatives American = 0 African = 24 Guatemalan = 1 Afghani = 1 Haitian = 1 9

10. 10 Monitoring prices Understanding how markets function

11. 11 Structure and Conduct of Markets

12. Satellite Products Crop water requirements satisfaction index (WRSI) Multiple-source daily rainfall estimation (RFE) Vegetation Indices (NDVI)

13. www.fews.net 13

14. 14 FEWS analyzes historical patterns of change in weather to inform today’s adaptation planning.

15. 15 www.populationexplorer.com

16. Timor l’Este 1 2 3 4 A B A, B, C = Existing AgMet monitoring focus 1-4 = possible AgMet monitoring windows C 16 New Agro-Meteorological Monitoring Windows

17. Excellent Oct-Dec 2011 rains 17 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Source: FEWS NET/NOAA Horn of Africa - context

18. 18 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Mar-May 12 rainfall forecasts

19. 19 Source: FEWS NET/NOAA/USGS Average March-May rainfall as a percentage of average annual rainfall Importance of Mar-May rains __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

20. 20 Evolution of Mar-May rains Precipitation Anomaly: 1 Feb – 7 May

21. Current Conditions 21 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia

22. 22