1. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Post Gu 2011 17 th August 2011 Central EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Information for Better Livelihoods

2.  Normal access in Hawd and Addun LHZs;  Partial access in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Agro- pastoral LHZs;  Local authority, enumerator, Key informants with FSNAU /WFP Teleconferencing Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

3.  Three Pastoral Livelihoods: Hawd, Addun, Coastal Deeh Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock and livestock products, bush product and kinship support Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and food aid Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat  Agropastoral livelihood: Cowpea Agro pastoral - are more livestock rather than crop-reliant. Income: sale of livestock, livestock products and bush product sales Main sources of food: own production (cowpea) and purchases Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

4. Climate Overall Statement: Normal rains in Coastal Deeh and larger parts of Cowpea belt (pockets in Cowpea belt received below normal rains); below normal rains in Hawd and Addun with pockets receiving average rains.  Start of Season: Gu rains started 2 to 3 weeks late (April 26 th ).  Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Started in April 26 th and ended by end of 2 nd Dekad of May. Rainfall performance was normal in Coastal Deeh and most parts in Cowpea Belt. However, Hawd and Addun received below normal precipitation.  Rains have started 2-3 weeks later than usual and ended about 2 weeks earlier. Gu 2011 Seasonal Performance Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

6. Civil Security Situation  Resource-based conflicts in rural settlements of Gelinsor and Adado areas between opposing clans;  High political confrontation among opposing sides over parts in Galgadud region;  Resource-based tensions and livestock rustling among clans over the area centered between Harardere and Hobyo districts;  Marine piracy attacks with successful hijackings of cargo vessels; Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:  Human death and causalities of active workforce and displacement  High impact and long term restrictions on population movement and pastoral access to key grazing areas Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity

7. Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates RegionDistrict Gu ‘11 production in MT CowpeaSorghumMaize GalgadudElbur 000 GalgadudElder 000 MudugHarardere 11500 MudugHobyo 000 Total 11500 Cowpea Production in Gu 2010: Galgadud – 750MT; Mudug – 305MT

8. Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Agriculture Failure of cowpea crop harvest in Harardere, July, 2011 Failure of cowpea crop harvest in Hobyo, July, 2011

9. Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow

10. Markets Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade –Cowpea and Coastal Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Rice) - Increasing Trend Regional Trends in Terms of trade: Local quality goat/cereal (Goat/Rice) - Declining Trend

11. Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) -Increasing Trend Regional Trends in Terms of trade: Local quality goat/cereal (Goat/Sorghum) - Declining Trend Market Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade – Cowpea Belt and Coastal Deeh

12. Market Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices - Cowpea and Coastal Regional Trends: Local Quality Goat price - Declining Trend (seasonal)

13.  Normal to near normal rainfall performance in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt and below normal rains in Hawd and Addun LHZs;  Improved rangeland conditions in Coastal Deeh and most parts in Cowpea Belt.  Below average rangeland and water conditions in parts of Hawd and Addun.  Normal livestock body conditions for goat and sheep across the livelihoods.  Below normal livestock body conditions for camel and cattle in Coastal, Cowpea and Addun. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Gu 2011

14. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Conception (Gu 2011) Calving/kidding (Gu 2011) Milk production (Gu 2011) Expected calving/ kidding Jul-Dec. 2011 Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11) LivelihoodsLivestock species Galgaduud & South Mudug Camel: Low to none Cattle: None Goat/shee p: Low to medium Cowpea & Coastal: Camel: Low to none Cattle: None Goat/sheep: None Hawd/Addun: Camel :Hawd- Medium Addun - Low Sheep/goats: Low Cowpea and coastal: Camel –Below Average Hawd and Addun: Below Average (all species) Cowpea belt and Coastal : Camel - Low Cattle - None Goat/sheep - Low to Medium Hawd and Addun: Camel -None Goat/sheep- Low Addun Pastoral Camel: Increased (below BL) Shoats: Decreased (below BL) Hawd Pastoral Camel: Increased (below BL) Goats: Decreased (below BL) Cowpea Belt Camel: Decreased (below BL) Cattle: Decreased (below BL) Sheep/goats: Decreased (below BL) Coastal DeehCattle: Insignificant Goat/sheep: Decreased (below BL)

15. Livestock Regional Trends in Cereal Prices and ToT- Hawd and Addun Regional Trend in Rice Prices - Trend increasing Regional Trends in Terms of trade: Local quality goat/cereal (Goat/Rice) - Trend is declining

16. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Water trucking. Dhabad, Abudwak, Jul. ‘11, Average camel. Arfuda Galkacyo, Mudug, Jul. ‘11, Livestock watering. Hadile, Hobyo, Mudug, Jul. ‘11, Average goat body condition browsing. Beer Abdi Farah, Dhusamareb, Galgadud, Jul.’11

17. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Markets Increase in Imported Commodity Prices (last six months) Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices: Increased global prices Declined local cereal supply on the markets due to low production in southern regions Limited humanitarian food distributions

18. RegionNutrition Surveys (July 2011) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm; & <11.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/ OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Deyr ‘10/11 CentralHawd Pastoral (N=576) GAM:14.4%&SAM:3.8%; Oedema: 0.5% CMR: 0.91/ 10,000/day U5MR: 2.12/10.000 Addun Pastoral (N=583) GAM: 17.8% SAM: 4.1% CMR:0.56/10,000/day &U5MR:1.92/10,000/day. Coastal Deeh: Assess. N=427 GAM/SAM: N/A CMR/U5MR: N/A Cowpea assessment N=755 GAM/SAM: N/A CMR/U5MR: N/A Dusamareb IDPs (N=198) GAM: >34.0% SAM: >6.2% CMR:1.85/10,000/day U5MR:6.57/10,000/day. Hawd: <12.5cm=5.9% <11.5cm=1.6% Addun: <12.5cm=7.7% <11.5cm=1.4% Coastal : <12.5cm=16.9 <11.5cm=5.4 Cowpea <12.5cm=12.5 <11.5cm= 4.9 Dusamareb IDPs 1.3% High proportion but fluctuating in Hawd & Addun high and increasing MCHs.(FSNA U, HIS, Jan – July’11, R=3). High proportion but decreasing in Coastal (Jan-July’11, R=3). Low N/A OTP data shows stable trend in last 3 months (UNICEF,Jan- July’11) N/A Hawd/Addun: High morbidity, cholera outbreak and suboptimal child feeding is a concern Low access to safe water 33.8% & 26.8% latrine 66.5% &57.4% in Hawd and Addun respectively High morbidity: 37.5% in Hawd and 36.7% in Addun low coverage of health programmes<80 Coastal Deeh High morbidity in Coastal Low food access ( fishing and high temperature, cyclone impact. Limited milk availability in Golis/karkaar. Poor infrastructure in Golis and coastal areas. Some mitigating factors Interventions in Hawd and Addun(health, nutrition, WASH and Food Aid) Active social support High immunization status and Vit A supplementation except in Addun and Hawd. Ongoing Child Health Days. Hawd –Serious sustained from Deyr’10/11 Addun: Critical – Deteriorated from post Deyr’10/11 from serious Coastal Deeh: Very Critical Deteriorated from Critical Deyr,11 Cowpee: Critical – sustained critical Deyr’11 Dusamareb IDPs Very Critical (1 st assessment) Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

19. CENTRAL Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Aggravating factors : AWD and cholera outbreak in Galgadud and Mudug regions Insecurity & displacements with limited interventions in Addun, Cowpea Belt & Coastal Deeh Limited milk availability in Addun, Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt LZ High morbidity and poor health seeking behavior, sub- optimal child feeding, poor access to safe water and health care services across all the livelihoods IDPS Poor shelters High morbidity in Dusamareb IDPs. Mitigating factors : Increased access to milk and milk products and stable ToT - after some Gu ‘11 rains in parts of the Hawd Access to humanitarian assistance (health, nutrition, WASH) in the Hawd and active social support) Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)

20. Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep) Urban Population: Galgadud 100%P in HE; 25%M in AFLC; Mudug: 100%P in HE; 25%M in AFLC Rural population: Coastal Deeh (100% of population in HE); Cowpea Belt (100% of P- HE; 100% M- AFLC); Addun (50% of the P-HE; 50% of P-AFLC) Acute Malnutrition : Dhusamareb IDP Very Critical; Coastal Deeh Livelihood Zone deteriorated from Critical to Very Critical while Cowpea sustained Critical levels with potential to deteriorate Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset Stripping) Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage only); in AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping) Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in AFLC (emerging; diffuse) Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access) CENTRAL Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 2: IPC, Gu 2011 MAP 1: IPC April 2011

21.  Below normal Gu 2011 rains in parts of Hawd and Addun leading to poor pasture and water availability  Poor milk production /availability in most livelihoods due to low calving/kidding  High livestock asset losses in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt due to the successive droughts (2008-2011)  Increases in local (red sorghum) and imported (rice) cereal prices  Crop failure in Cowpea Belt due to the long dry spell, coupled with pests and diseases  Significant decline (57%) in ToT between goat and red sorghum (from 95 kg in June ’10 to 41 kg in Jun ’11)  High indebtedness (> 200 USD) accrued during previous droughts to meet water and food needs  Reduced fishing activities due to piracy along the coastline  Increased pastoral destitution (Coastal Deeh)  Increased inter-clan resource based conflicts (rangelands)  Limited humanitarian space (Harardheere, Eldheer and Elbuur districts)  Increased civil insecurity among opposing groups affecting trade and pastoral mobility CENTRAL Main Contributing Factors of Rural IPC Situation

22. CENTRAL Rural Population in Crisis by livelihoods Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Population of Affected Livelihood Zones Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanit arian Emergen cy (HE) GalgaduudAddun pastoral123,21848,00017,00019,00017,000 Central Agro-Past60,94434,00015,00035,00016,000 Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral41,0308,0003,00011,0000 Coastal Deeh: sheep21,6714,000 02,000 Southern Inland Past7,4532,0001,0003,0002,000 Destitute pastoralists16,764018,000028,000 SUB-TOTAL271,08096,00058,00068,00065,000 South MudugAddun pastoral41,82321,0007,0008,0004,000 Central Agro-Past31,75017,0008,00013,0008,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep29,2575,0006,00001,000 Hawd Pastoral16,2432,0001,00010,0000 Destitute pastoralists12,38207,000026,000 Sub-Total131,45545,00029,00031,00039,000 GRAND TOTAL402,535141,00087,00099,000 104,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 228,000203,000

23. CENTRAL Rural Population in Crisis by District Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Deyr 2010/11Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitari an Emergenc y (HE) GalgaduudCabudwaaq32,6548,0005,0008,0005,000 Cadaado36,3049,0007,0008,0006,000 Ceel Buur66,27427,00015,00018,00015,000 Ceel Dheer61,40726,00016,00024,000 Dhuusamarree b 74,44126,00015,00010,00015,000 SUB-TOTAL271,08096,00058,00068,00065,000 South MudugGaalkacyo24,8606,0004,0007,0003,000 Hobyo54,43819,00013,00010,00018,000 Xarardheere52,15720,00012,00014,00018,000 SUB-TOTAL131,45545,00029,00031,00039,000 GRAND TOTAL402,535141,00087,00099,000104,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 228,000203,000

24. CENTRAL Urban Population in Crisis District UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) South Mudug Gaalkacyo 137,66754,80019,000035021,00038 Hobyo 67,24912,8113,0001,0003104,00031 Xarardheere 65,54313,3864,0001,0003705,00037 Sub-Total 270,45980,99726,0002,00034030,00037 Galgaduud Cabudwaaq 41,0678,41303,000361,0003,00048 Cadaado 45,6309,32603,0003203,00032 Ceel Buur 79,09212,81804,0003104,00031 Ceel Dheer 73,00811,60104,0003404,00034 Dhuusamarreeb 91,26016,81908,000482,0008,00059 Sub-Total 330,05758,977022,000373,00022,00042 Grand Total 600,516139,974 50,00036 55,00039