Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Population Change in Texas: Implications of the 2010 Census for Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development Steve H. Murdock, Director Hobby Center for the Study of Texas and Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology Rice University TEDA in Houston March 24, 2011 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Major Topics of the Presentation __________________________ Population Change Increasing Racial/Ethnic Diversity Aging of the Population Implications of Demographic Change for Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850-2010 Total Population Percent Change Year Texas U.S. 1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- 1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.6 1870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.6 1880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.0 1890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.5 1900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.7 1910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.0 1920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.9 1930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.1 1940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.2 1950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.5 1960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.0 1970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.4 1980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.4 1990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.8 2000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.2 2010 25,145,561 308,745,538 20.6 9.7 Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year. Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009 United States Texas Component Numeric Change Percent of Total Change Total Change 25,584,644 100.0 3,930,482 Natural Increase 15,875,579 62.1 2,124,124 54.0 Net Domestic Migration ---- --- 848,702 21.6 Net International Migration 9,709,065 37.9 957,656 24.4 Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census. 4
Ten Largest States in the United States by Population Size in 2010 Change 2000-2010 State 2000 Population 2010 Population Numeric Percent United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7 California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0 Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 New York 18,976,457 19,378,102 401,645 2.1 Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6 Illinois 12,419,293 12,830,632 411,339 3.3 Pennsylvania 12,281,054 12,702,379 421,325 3.4 Ohio 11,353,140 11,536,504 183,364 1.6 Michigan 9,938,444 9,883,640 -54,804 -0.6 Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3 North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5 Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Ten States in the United States with the Largest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010 Change 2000-2010 State 2000 Population 2010 Population Numeric Percent United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7 Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0 Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6 Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3 North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5 Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6 Virginia 7,078,515 8,001,024 922,509 13.0 Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 830,419 14.1 Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9 Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1 Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Ten States in the United States with the Largest Percentage Population Increase 2000-2010 Change 2000-2010 State 2000 Population 2010 Population Numeric Percent United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7 Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1 Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6 Utah 2,233,169 2,763,885 530,716 23.8 Idaho 1,293,953 1,567,582 273,629 21.1 Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5 Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3 Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6 Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9 South Carolina 4,012,012 4,625,364 613,352 15.3 Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Regional Population Change as a Proportion of U.S. Population Change, 2000-2010 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Population of the United States by Regions, 1910-2010 Population in Thousands (Thousands) United States/ Regions 1900 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 United States 76,212 151,326 179,323 203,302 226,546 248,710 281,422 308,746 Northeast 27.6 26.1 24.9 24.1 21.7 20.4 19.0 17.9 Midwest 34.5 29.4 28.8 27.9 25.9 24.0 22.9 South 32.2 31.2 30.7 30.9 33.3 34.4 35.6 37.1 West 5.7 13.3 15.6 17.1 19.1 21.2 22.5 23.3 Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Texas Regional Councils of Governments 11 11
Councils of Governments in Texas Ranked by Total Population in 2010: Total Population in 2000 and 2010; Numeric and Percent Change, 2000-2010; and Percent of the State Population (2010) and State Population Change Total Population Population Change Percent of State Council of Government 2000 2010 Numeric % Population Change, 2000-10 North Central Texas 5,309,277 6,539,950 1,230,673 23.2 26.0 28.7 Houston-Galveston 4,854,454 6,087,133 1,232,679 25.4 24.2 Alamo Area 1,807,868 2,249,011 441,143 24.4 8.9 10.3 Capital Area 1,346,833 1,830,003 483,170 35.9 7.3 11.3 Lower Rio Grande Valley 924,772 1,203,123 278,351 30.1 4.8 6.5 East Texas 745,180 829,749 84,569 3.3 2.0 Rio Grande 704,318 825,913 121,595 17.3 2.8 Coastal Bend 549,012 571,987 22,975 4.2 2.3 0.5 Central Texas 374,518 449,641 75,123 20.1 1.8 1.7 Panhandle 402,862 427,927 25,065 6.2 0.6 Permian Basin 376,672 417,679 41,007 10.9 1.0 South Plains 377,871 411,659 33,788 1.6 0.8 South East Texas 385,090 388,745 3,655 0.9 1.5 0.1 Deep East Texas 355,862 378,477 22,615 6.4 Heart of Texas 321,536 349,273 27,737 8.6 1.4 South Texas 264,177 330,590 66,413 25.1 1.3 West Central Texas 324,901 327,390 2,489 Brazos Valley 267,085 319,447 52,362 19.6 1.2 Ark-Tex 270,468 281,947 11,479 1.1 0.3 Nortex 224,366 222,860 -1,506 -0.7 0.0 Texoma 178,200 193,229 15,029 8.4 0.4 Golden Crescent 183,905 188,626 4,721 2.6 Middle Rio Grande 154,381 167,010 12,629 8.2 0.7 Concho Valley 148,212 154,192 5,980 4.0 State of Texas 20,851,818 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 100.0 12 12
Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas 13 13
Total Population in 2000 and 2010 in Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Texas Ranked by Numerical Change Between 2000 and 2010 Total Population Change Metropolitan Statistical Area 2000 2010 Numeric % Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 4,715,407 5,946,800 1,231,393 26.1 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 5,161,544 6,371,773 1,210,229 23.4 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 1,249,763 1,716,289 466,526 37.3 San Antonio-New Braunfels 1,711,703 2,142,508 430,805 25.2 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 569,463 774,769 205,306 36.1 El Paso 679,622 800,647 121,025 17.8 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood 330,714 405,300 74,586 22.6 Brownsville-Harlingen 335,227 406,220 70,993 21.2 Laredo 193,117 250,304 57,187 29.6 College Station-Bryan 184,885 228,660 43,775 23.7 Lubbock 249,700 284,890 35,190 14.1 Tyler 174,706 209,714 35,008 20.0 Corpus Christi 403,280 428,185 24,905 6.2 Amarillo 226,522 249,881 23,359 10.3 Waco 213,517 234,906 21,389 10.0 Midland 116,009 136,872 20,863 18.0 Longview 194,042 214,369 20,327 10.5 Odessa 121,123 137,130 16,007 13.2 Sherman-Denison 110,595 120,877 10,282 9.3 San Angelo 105,781 111,823 6,042 5.7 Abilene 160,245 162,252 5,007 3.1 Victoria 111,663 115,384 3,721 3.3 Texarkana* 89,306 92,565 3,259 3.6 Beaumont-Port Arthur 385,090 388,745 3,655 0.9 Wichita Falls 151,524 151,306 -218 -0.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau *Reflects total population for Texas portion of MSA only. 14 14
Total Population in 2000 and 2010 and Population Change for the Twenty Largest Counties in Texas (2010) Change 2000-2010 County 2000 2010 Numeric Percent Harris County 3,400,578 4,092,459 691,881 20.3 Dallas County 2,218,899 2,368,139 149,240 6.7 Tarrant County 1,446,219 1,809,034 362,815 25.1 Bexar County 1,392,931 1,714,773 321,842 23.1 Travis County 812,280 1,024,266 211,986 26.1 El Paso County 679,622 800,647 121,025 17.8 Collin County 491,675 782,341 290,666 59.1 Hidalgo County 569,463 774,769 205,306 36.1 Denton County 432,976 662,614 229,638 53.0 Fort Bend County 354,452 585,375 230,923 65.1 Montgomery County 293,768 455,746 161,978 55.1 Williamson County 249,967 422,679 172,712 69.1 Cameron County 335,227 406,220 70,993 21.2 Nueces County 313,645 340,223 26,578 8.5 Brazoria County 241,767 313,166 71,399 29.5 Bell County 237,974 310,235 72,261 30.4 Galveston County 250,158 291,309 41,151 16.5 Lubbock County 242,628 278,831 36,203 14.9 Jefferson County 252,051 252,273 222 0.1 Webb County 193,117 250,304 57,187 29.6 ________ Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171. Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest Numeric Population Increase Between 2000 and 2010 Change 2000-2010 County 2000 2010 Numeric Percent Harris County 3,400,578 4,092,459 691,881 20.3 Tarrant County 1,446,219 1,809,034 362,815 25.1 Bexar County 1,392,931 1,714,773 321,842 23.1 Collin County 491,675 782,341 290,666 59.1 Fort Bend County 354,452 585,375 230,923 65.1 Denton County 432,976 662,614 229,638 53.0 Travis County 812,280 1,024,266 211,986 26.1 Hidalgo County 569,463 774,769 205,306 36.1 Williamson County 249,967 422,679 172,712 69.1 Montgomery County 293,768 455,746 161,978 55.1 Dallas County 2,218,899 2,368,139 149,240 6.7 El Paso County 679,622 800,647 121,025 17.8 Bell County 237,974 310,235 72,261 30.4 Brazoria County 241,767 313,166 71,399 29.5 Cameron County 335,227 406,220 70,993 21.2 Hays County 97,589 157,107 59,518 61.0 Webb County 193,117 250,304 57,187 29.6 Guadalupe County 89,023 131,533 42,510 47.8 Brazos County 152,415 194,851 42,436 27.8 Galveston County 250,158 291,309 41,151 16.5 ________ Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171. Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Twenty Counties in Texas with the Largest Percentage Population Increase Between 2000 and 2010 Change 2000-2010 County 2000 2010 Numeric Percent Rockwall County 43,080 78,337 35,257 81.8 Williamson County 249,967 422,679 172,712 69.1 Fort Bend County 354,452 585,375 230,923 65.1 Hays County 97,589 157,107 59,518 61.0 Collin County 491,675 782,341 290,666 59.1 Montgomery County 293,768 455,746 161,978 55.1 Denton County 432,976 662,614 229,638 53.0 Guadalupe County 89,023 131,533 42,510 47.8 Kaufman County 71,313 103,350 32,037 44.9 Kendall County 23,743 33,410 9,667 40.7 Comal County 78,021 108,472 30,451 39.0 Hidalgo County 569,463 774,769 205,306 36.1 Chambers County 26,031 35,096 9,065 34.8 Ellis County 111,360 149,610 38,250 34.3 Garza County 4,872 6,461 1,589 32.6 Wilson County 32,408 42,918 10,510 32.4 Waller County 32,663 43,205 10,542 32.3 Parker County 88,495 116,927 28,432 32.1 Bell County 237,974 310,235 72,261 30.4 Webb County 193,117 250,304 57,187 29.6 ________ Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L. 94-171. Population Counts as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Population Change in Texas Counties, 1990-2000 Source: Texas State Data Center 18
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/ Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH White (Anglo) 10,933,313 11,397,345 464,032 4.2 52.4 45.3 Hispanic 6,669,666 9,460,921 2,791,255 41.8 32.0 37.6 NH Black 2,364,255 2,886,825 522,570 22.1 11.3 11.5 NH American Indian 68,859 80,586 11,727 17.0 0.3 NH Asian 554,445 948,426 393,981 71.1 2.7 3.8 NH Hawaiian/Pac. Isldr. 10,757 17,920 7,163 66.6 0.1 NH Some Other Race 19,958 33,980 14,022 70.3 NH Two or More Races 230,567 319,558 88,991 38.6 1.1 1.3 Total 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 100.0 ________ Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171. *Hispanic includes Hispanic persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (non-Hispanic White[Anglo], non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic American Indian, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic Some Other Race, non-Hispanic Two or More Races).
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population (Age 18+) by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 8,426,166 9,074,684 648,518 7.70 56.31 49.64 Hispanic (All Races) 4,282,901 6,143,144 1,860,243 43.43 28.62 33.61 NH Black 1,631,448 2,076,282 444,834 27.27 10.90 11.36 NH Asian 415,219 716,968 301,749 72.67 2.77 3.92 NH "Other" Races 70,612 95,973 25,361 33.05 0.47 0.53 NH Two or More Races 138,715 172,686 33,971 24.49 0.93 0.94 State of Texas 14,965,061 18,279,737 3,314,676 22.15 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population (Age <18) by Race/Ethnicity for Texas, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 2,507,147 2,322,661 -184,486 -7.36 42.59 33.83 Hispanic (All Races) 2,386,765 3,317,777 931,012 39.01 40.54 48.32 NH Black 732,807 810,543 77,736 10.61 12.45 11.81 NH Asian 139,226 231,458 92,232 66.25 2.37 3.37 NH "Other" Races 28,962 36,513 7,551 33.05 0.49 0.53 NH Two or More Races 91,852 146,872 55,020 59.90 1.56 2.14 State of Texas 5,886,759 6,865,824 979,065 16.63 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Galveston COG Region, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 2,348,844 2,429,516 80,672 3.43 48.39 39.91 Hispanic (All Races) 1,389,915 2,142,892 752,977 54.17 28.63 35.20 NH Black 809,631 1,023,683 214,052 26.44 16.68 16.82 NH Asian 227,755 386,015 158,260 69.49 4.69 6.34 NH "Other" Races 19,313 28,329 9,016 46.68 0.40 0.47 NH Two or More Races 58,996 76,698 17,702 30.01 1.22 1.26 Houston-Galveston COG 4,854,454 6,087,133 1,232,679 25.39 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Galveston COG Region, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 1,787,751 1,920,778 133,027 7.44 51.78 43.71 Hispanic (All Races) 887,588 1,383,264 495,676 55.85 25.71 31.48 NH Black 557,817 734,889 177,072 31.74 16.16 16.72 NH Asian 169,234 293,416 124,182 73.38 4.90 6.68 NH "Other" Races 13,446 19,882 6,436 47.87 0.39 0.45 NH Two or More Races 36,670 41,911 5,241 14.29 1.06 0.95 Houston-Galveston COG 3,452,506 4,394,140 941,634 27.27 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Galveston COG Region, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 561,093 508,738 -52,355 -9.33 40.02 30.05 Hispanic (All Races) 502,327 759,628 257,301 51.22 35.83 44.87 NH Black 251,814 288,794 36,980 14.69 17.96 17.06 NH Asian 58,521 92,599 34,078 58.23 4.17 5.47 NH "Other" Races 5,867 8,447 2,580 43.97 0.42 0.50 NH Two or More Races 22,326 34,787 12,461 55.81 1.59 2.05 Houston-Galveston COG 1,401,948 1,692,993 291,045 20.76 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 2,274,829 2,360,472 85,643 3.76 48.24 39.69 Hispanic (All Races) 1,353,477 2,099,412 745,935 55.11 28.70 35.30 NH Black 783,955 998,883 214,928 27.42 16.63 16.80 NH Asian 226,308 384,596 158,288 69.94 4.80 6.47 NH "Other" Races 18,867 27,895 9,028 47.85 0.40 0.47 NH Two or More Races 57,971 75,542 17,571 30.31 1.23 1.27 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA 4,715,407 5,946,800 1,231,393 26.11 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 1,728,113 1,862,144 134,031 7.76 51.63 43.46 Hispanic (All Races) 863,565 1,353,998 490,433 56.79 25.80 31.60 NH Black 538,356 715,248 176,892 32.86 16.08 16.69 NH Asian 168,231 292,317 124,086 73.76 5.03 6.82 NH "Other" Races 13,114 19,537 6,423 48.98 0.39 0.46 NH Two or More Races 36,035 41,266 5,231 14.52 1.08 0.96 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA 3,347,414 4,284,510 937,096 27.99 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population by Race/Ethnicity for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 546,716 498,328 -48,388 -8.85 39.96 29.98 Hispanic (All Races) 489,912 745,414 255,502 52.15 35.81 44.84 NH Black 245,599 283,635 38,036 15.49 17.95 17.06 NH Asian 58,077 92,279 34,202 58.89 4.25 5.55 NH "Other" Races 5,753 8,358 2,605 45.28 0.42 0.50 NH Two or More Races 21,936 34,276 12,340 56.25 1.60 2.06 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA 1,367,993 1,662,290 294,297 21.51 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by Race/Ethnicity for the City of Houston, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 601,851 537,901 -63,950 -10.63 30.81 25.62 Hispanic (All Races) 730,865 919,668 188,803 25.83 37.41 43.81 NH Black 487,851 485,956 -1,895 -0.39 24.97 23.15 NH Asian 102,706 124,859 22,153 21.57 5.26 5.95 NH "Other" Races 6,528 8,367 1,839 28.17 0.00 0.40 NH Two or More Races 23,830 22,700 -1,130 -4.74 1.22 1.08 City Houston 1,953,631 2,099,451 145,820 7.46 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Adult Population by Race/Ethnicity for the City of Houston, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 499,473 458,859 -40,614 -8.13 35.25 29.48 Hispanic (All Races) 476,451 613,353 136,902 28.73 33.62 39.41 NH Black 340,032 361,356 21,324 6.27 24.00 23.22 NH Asian 80,191 102,177 21,986 27.42 5.66 6.56 NH "Other" Races 4,689 6,141 1,452 28.17 0.33 0.39 NH Two or More Races 16,137 14,541 -1,596 -9.89 1.14 0.93 Houston 1,416,973 1,556,427 139,454 9.84 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Child Population by Race/Ethnicity for the City of Houston, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Race/Ethnicity* 2000 2010 Numeric Percent NH Whites (Anglo) 102,378 79,042 -23,336 -22.79 19.08 14.56 Hispanic (All Races) 254,414 306,315 51,901 20.40 47.41 56.41 NH Black 147,819 124,600 -23,219 -15.71 27.54 22.95 NH Asian 22,515 22,682 167 0.74 4.20 4.18 NH "Other" Races 1,839 2,226 387 28.17 0.34 0.41 NH Two or More Races 7,693 8,159 466 6.06 1.43 1.50 Houston 536,658 543,024 6,366 1.19 100.00 Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L. 94-171 * “Other Race” is comprised of Native American and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, and “Some Other Race” as per the Census 2000 and Census 2010. Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are non-Hispanic (e.g., non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.)
Median Age in the United States and Texas, 1900-2007 In addition to population change, distribution, diversification, we are experience growth in the population in older ages “Aging of the population” Note decline in average age during 1960s and 1970s Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 38
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000 Combination of ethnic diversity and aging will be felt in the next few decades In about 2003, Texas became a non-majority state and by 2035, Texas is predicted to become Hispanic majority state What is seen here is to the right – the Texas of old and to the left – the Texas of the future Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 39
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2040* By 2040, all but the oldest ages will be majority Hispanic What is happening in Texas will occur for the U.S. as a whole Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 40
Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000 Non-anglo populations primarily in younger ages Largest proportion of anglos in oldest ages Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 41
Percent of United States Population by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050 By 2040, all but oldest ages will be majority non-Anglo In fact, Half of the population will be non-Anglo by 2042 and ½ of Children will be non-Anglo by 2023! Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 42
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Median Household Income* Median Household Income Total and Percent of the Texas Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009 1999 2009 Population in Poverty % Median Household Income* Median Household Income Anglo 826,459 7.8 $60,839 1,010,170 9.0 $59,836 Hispanic 1,658,434 25.4 $38,536 2,364,407 26.4 $35,628 Black 525,082 23.4 $37,803 630,479 23.1 $35,438 Asian 65,048 11.9 $64,576 105,186 12.1 $63,692 Other 42,586 13.9 NA 40,000 Total 3,117,609 15.4 $51,506 4,150,242 17.2 $50,043 *In 2009 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009 44 44
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years of Age By Race/Ethnicity _____________________________________ Percent Attainment rates for black and hispanic far below that of Asians and Anglos Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Educational Attainment by Ethnicity in Texas, 2008 State of Texas Number Percent Educational Attainment Anglo Hispanic Total Population Less than high school diploma 677,707 2,044,771 3,082,598 8.5 42.8 20.4 H.S. graduate, GED, or alternative 2,016,649 1,205,247 3,848,003 25.3 25.2 25.4 Some college or associate's degree 2,609,018 1,011,674 4,362,145 32.8 21.2 28.8 Bachelor's degree or higher 2,656,310 520,106 3,832,100 33.4 10.9 Population Age 25 and Over 7,959,684 4,781,798 15,124,846 100.0 Source: American Community Survey, 2008 In Texas, only 11% of those with Hispanics have a BA or higher Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001 by Selected Characteristics Story about Murdock Income bias in tests Because race/ethnicity correlated with lower income due to various historical and discriminatory reasons, then we excluding those who most need education Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University PROJECTIONS Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions) Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Projected Change in the U. S Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050
Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Texas Counties with 50 Percent or More of Their Total Population That is Anglo in 2000 and Projected for 2040 Under Alternative Projection Scenarios Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2020 to 2040 for Texas Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration
Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2040* * Assuming rates of migration equal to 2000-2004 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University TEXAS EDUCATION Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Enrollment and Change in Enrollment of Economically Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas Public Schools, 1998-99 and 2008-09 School Years Enrollment 10-Year Change Race/Ethnic Category 1998-99 2008-09 Numeric Percent Economically Disadvantaged White 368,387 402,057 33,670 9.1 African American 364,434 460,703 96,269 26.4 Other 36,589 57,852 21,263 58.1 Hispanic 1,146,071 1,765,647 619,576 54.1 Total 1,915,481 2,686,259 770,778 40.2 1,746,896 1,616,115 -130,781 -7.5 568,757 671,871 103,114 18.1 112,068 186,487 74,419 66.4 1,526,713 2,275,098 748,385 49.0 3,954,434 4,749,571 795,137 20.1 Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools, 2008-09 http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/research/pdfs/enrollment_2008-09.pdf Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 62 62
Asian/Pacific Islander (%) Total Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity in the 10 Largest* School Districts in Texas, 2000-2001 and 2007-2008 District/County/School Year White (%) African American (%) Hispanic (%) Asian/Pacific Islander (%) Native American (%) Total Enrollment Houston ISD (Harris) 2000-2001 10.0 32.1 54.9 2.9 .1 208,462 2007-2008 8.0 28.4 60.3 3.2 198,769 Dallas ISD (Dallas) 7.8 35.9 54.5 1.4 .4 161,548 4.8 28.7 65.3 1.0 .2 157,605 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (Harris) 58.5 23.4 7.9 63,497 38.8 15.2 37.1 8.6 .3 96,546 Northside ISD (Bexar) 36.7 6.6 54.3 2.2 63,739 25.4 63.2 3.3 85,544 Austin ISD (Travis) 33.7 15.7 47.8 2.5 77,816 26.4 12.1 58.0 82,181 Fort Worth ISD ( Tarrant) 21.4 30.9 45.4 2.1 79,661 14.3 25.6 58.2 1.6 78,732 Fort Bend ISD (Fort Bend) 37.8 28.0 18.1 16.0 53,999 24.4 31.8 23.0 20.6 67,780 Arlington ISD (Tarrant) 47.3 21.3 24.0 6.8 .6 58,866 31.4 23.9 37.2 7.1 62,560 North East ISD (Bexar) 49.1 9.4 50,875 39.2 47.4 3.7 61,910 El Paso ISD (El Paso) 78.5 1.2 62,325 12.2 81.3 61,839 *Largest enrollment based on 2007-2008 school year Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center from Texas Education Agency, Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) District Profiles
Texas Higher Education Enrollment in Public Universities, Public 2-year Colleges and Health-related Institutions by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2008 Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Public Univ 2-year Colleges Health-related Institutions 2000 Enrollment White (%) 58.4 52.8 61.3 African American (%) 9.8 11.0 4.9 Hispanic (%) 19.6 28.9 12.6 Asian (%) 5.7 3.9 14.6 American Indian (%) .5 International (%) 5.3 2.4 4.8 Unknown (%) .7 1.3 Total 2000 Enrollment 414,626 447,998 13,806 2008 Enrollment 50.4 45.2 51.3 11.6 11.8 6.6 24.3 34.1 13.8 4.2 14.5 .6 2.5 9.7 .9 1.7 3.5 Total 2008 Enrollment 509,136 617,507 20,421 Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center using data from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB)
Public Elementary and Secondary Public Community College, and Public University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)
Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and Public University Enrollment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)
Future Demands for Specific Programs
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University TEXAS LABOR FORCE Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University 68 68
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Projections of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000 to 2040 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Percent Change in Projected Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000-2040 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Projections of the Percent of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000-2040 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Number and percent of Net Change in the Civilian Labor Force in Texas Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group, Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars)
Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 tc 6.1 -- 12-4-02 308 Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040* Billions $1,200 $938 $1,000 $765 $752 $800 $621 $629 $528 $600 $400 $251 $210 $200 $0 2000 2040 Assuming 2040 Assuming 2040 Assuming Base Values 2000 Attainment 1990-2000 Trends Anglo Trends Differentials in Differentials Apply to all Groups Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures *Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
The mark of a truly educated man is to be moved deeply by statistics. George Bernard Shaw
Website: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu Steve Murdock Phone: 210-867-4385 E-mail: shm3@rice.edu Website: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu