1. Texas: Demographic Characteristics and Trends
Central Texas Commercial Real Estate Society
September 14, 2011
Austin, TX
Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

2. Growing States, 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538
Population*
2010
Numerical
Change
Percent
United States
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
15.7% of numerical change in U.S.
Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts.

3. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009
Percent Change Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
Percent
1950
7,711,194 --
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
1,754,652
113,831
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1,402,683
214,370
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
1,260,794
1,771,667
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
1,815,670
941,649
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
1,919,281
1,946,029
22.8
49.65
50.35
2009
24,782,302
3,930,484
2,124,124
1,781,785
18.8
54.04
45.33
*All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.

4. Texas Business-Cycle Index

5. Texas Total Nonfarm Employment Quarterly Growth

6. Texas and U.S. Unemployment Rate

7. Texas Residential Permits and Mortgage Rate, 1990-2010

8. Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000-2009
Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Generally, international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high. However, with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates.

9. Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2009
52% of all migrants were international
(848,702 migrants )
(933,083 migrants)
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.

10. Estimated Domestic Migration (2000-2008) as a Percentage of 2000 Population by County
This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration made up largely of persons who are citizens or legal residents of the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent counties.
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

11. Estimated International Migration (2000-2008) as a Percentage of 2000 Population by County
This map demonstrates in migration of international migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border. Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to those counties.
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

12. States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010
Estimate (thousands)
Range
California
2,550
(2, ,750)
Texas
1,650
(1, ,850)
Florida
825
( )
New York
625
( )
New Jersey
550
( )
Illinois
525
( )
Georgia
425
( )
Arizona
400
( )
Texas has an estimated 1.65 million unauthorized immigrants. Assuming most unauthorized migrants were counted in the Census, this represents about 6.5% of the total population.
Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).

13. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other.
In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts.

14. Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race and Ethnicity, 2010
This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic Anglo is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections.

15. Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race and Ethnicity, 2010
This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic Anglo is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections.

16. Total Population by County, 2010
The counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census Count.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

17. Numeric Change of Total Population by County, 2000-2010
175 counties gained population while 79 lost population over the decade.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Census Counts.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

18. Percent Change of Total Population by County, 2000-2010
Population increase for
Texas was 20.6%
during this period.
This map demonstrates the percent change in population over a ten year period. Percent change is one indicator of the speed of population change but is not always an indicator of the absolute change in numbers. For example, county A with 100 people added 100 people, and has a 100% increase. Meanwhile county B with 1,000 people added 100 people and has a 10% increase. County A is growing at a more rapid rate than county B, but in terms of total numbers, they grew by the same amount.
The State of Texas grew by 20.6% between 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

19. Population Growth in Austin-Round Rock MSA, 1980-2040 (2000-2008 Migration Scenario)
County
1980
1990
2000
2010
2040
Bastrop
24,726
38,263
57,733
74,171
311,306
Caldwell
23,637
26,392
32,194
38,066
64,262
Hays
40,594
65,614
97,589
157,107
581,488
Travis
419,573
576,407
812,280
1,024,266
1,181,101
Williamson
76,521
139,551
249,967
422,679
1,363,538
Total
585,051
846,227
1,249,763
1,716,289
3,501,695
Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Population and 2040 with and numeric and percent change.xlsx
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Census Counts; Texas State Data Center Population Estimates; Texas State Data Center Migration Scenario Projection to 2040.

20. Population Growth in Austin-Round Rock MSA by Area, 1980-2040
County
1980
1990
2000
2010
2040
 Number of Inhabitants by Area 
Travis
419,573
576,407
812,280
1,024,266
1,181,101
Others
165,478
269,820
437,483
692,023
2,320,594
Total
585,051
846,227
1,249,763
1,716,289
3,501,695
 Percent of Population in Area 72 68 65 60 34 28 32 35 40 66
100
Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Population and 2040 with and numeric and percent change.xlsx
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Census Counts; Texas State Data Center Population Estimates; Texas State Data Center Migration Scenario Projection to 2040.

21. Components of Change for Austin-Round Rock MSA, 2000 to 2009
County
Population
Births-Deaths
Migration
2000
2009
Change
Foreign
Domestic
Bastrop
57,733
74,876
17,143
3,990
1,308
12,027
Caldwell
32,194
37,810
5,616
2,301
496
2,977
Hays
97,589
155,545
57,956
10,905
1,697
45,351
Travis
812,280
1,026,158
213,878
102,653
58,855
56,907
Williamson
249,967
410,686
160,719
37,705
5,965
116,977
Total
1,249,763
1,705,075
455,312
157,554
68,321
234,239
Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Components of Change with FIPS.xlsx
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Census Count; Texas State Data Center Population Estimates.

22. Median Household Income
by County,
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey,
5-Year Sample
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

23. Percent of Population Less Than 18 Years of Age Living Under Poverty During Past 12 Months by County,
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey,
5-Year Sample
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

24. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
This graph represents variable population projections for the State under different migration scenarios. The base (brown dashed line) is the assumption of no migration. Under this scenario, the State will grow as a function of natural increase (births-deaths). The ½ scenario (the red split line) is the most conservative. The and scenarios reflect estimates of migration for those two periods and suggest more rapid population growth. Under any scenario, even no migration, Texas will continue to grow.
Year
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections.

25. Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000-2040
The migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015.
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, Migration Scenario.

26. Projected Population by Texas Counties, 2040
Texas State Data Center projections indicate that the most significant growth will continue to occur in the major metropolitan areas and along the southern border area.
Source: Texas State Data Center. Vintage 2008 Population Projections,
Migration Scenario.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

27. Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040
The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate the trends in population growth and decline will continue. Major metropolitan areas will continue to increase as will the southern border region. More rural, less populated counties will continue to lose population.

28. Demographics and Destiny
Texas is growing – with more people being added than in any other state we added 4 additional seats to our representation in the U.S. Congress.
Texas is becoming more urban. Many rural counties are losing population. Urbanized metropolitan areas have been growing dramatically over the decade.
Texas is becoming more diverse – much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population.

29. Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: (512) or (210) Internet:
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.