1. Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections of Texas Children
NALEO Roundtable on the Youngest Texans
Austin, TX
January 16, 2019
@TexasDemography

2. Population Growth of Select States, 2000-2018
2010
2018 Population
Numeric
Change
Percent
United States
281,421,906
308,745,538
327,167,434
18,409,329 6%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
28,701,845
3,555,731
14%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
39,557,045
2,302,522
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
21,299,325
2,494,745
13%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
10,519,475
830,766 9%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
10,383,620
847,884
Washington
5,894,121
6,724,540
7,535,591
811,051
12%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
7,171,646
779,358
Colorado
5,029,196
5,695,564
666,248
Texas is growing and growing fast. Texas began the decade at just over 25 million and is now well on track to meet or surpass the growth that took place between the last two censuses (nearing 4.3 million). Today we estimate Texas is at 28.7 million and growing at a rate of 14% between 2010 and 2018, or 1.75% annually. At this rate, Texas could reach a population approaching 30 million by 2020.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Count, 2018 Population Estimates.

3. Texas Population by Race/Ethnicity,
Latinos are a major driver of growth in Texas. Between 2000 and 2010, of every 10 people added to the Texas population, 6 were Hispanic. In 2010, Hispanics made up 32% of the total Texas population. Currently, Hispanics make up 39% of the total population. This represents an annual growth rate of over 2.5%, higher than the state growth rate. Over half (53.7%) of the growth add to the Texas population between 2010 and 2017 can be attributed to growth among Hispanics.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

4. Race/Ethnicity Composition and Change among Children, Texas, 2010 & 2017
Numeric Change
Percent Change
All Children, Under 18
6,865,824
7,366,039
500,215
7.3%
Hispanic
3,317,777
3,645,511
327,734
9.9%
Children 0-8 years
3,586,052
3,815,002
228,950
6.4%
1,769,202
1,871,670
102,468
5.8%
NH White
1,198,368
1,236,875
38,507
3.2%
NH Black
441,498
482,578
41,080
9.3%
NH Asian
150,839
192,661
41,822
27.7%
NH Other
26,145
31,218
5,073
19.4%
Latinos are also driving growth among Texas children. The number of Texas children is growing but at a slower rate than the state as a whole. Their share of the total Texas population has also been in decline since 2010, making up 27.3% at the beginning of the decade and dropping to 26% in In 2010, there were nearly 6.9 million Texas children. The Texas child population is now estimated at nearly 7.4 million. Growth among the Texas child population since the last Census has been slower than growth in the state as a whole, growing by 1 percent each year compared to the Texas growth rate of 1.75 percent. However, Latino children have made up over 65% of the total growth among Texas children. In 2010, they were estimated at 3.3 million and have increased to over 3.6 million in Their rate of growth is higher than the total Texas child population but still lower than the growth rate of the state as a whole. This rate of growth has kept their share of Texas children, growing since 2010, from 48% percent in 2010 to 49.5% in 2017.
The youngest Texans, those ages 0 to 8 years, make up about 13% of the total Texas population and half of the child population. Their share of the total and child population has also been decreasing, indicative of declining birth rates. Hispanic children contributed about half of the growth in the 0-8 population between 2010 and Hispanics make up half of the 0-8 child population in Texas. Their share has remained stable across the last 7 years, but we see indications that we may begin to see some declines in the near future. Most of these declines will be driven by declining birth rates.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and 2017 Population Estimates

5. Total Fertility Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 1990-2017
In 2017, Texas reached below replacement total fertility rate, or a TFR below 2.1. The total fertility rate is defined as the expected number of births that a group of 1000 women would have in their lifetimes according to the current age-specific birth rates. Texas TFR in 2017 was This has fallen from 2.34 in Hispanics, with a TFR of 2.14, are the only race/ethnicity group with above replacement fertility.
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports

6. Child Well-Being in Texas
Texas ranked 43rd in latest national rankings of child well-being.
35th in economic well-being
Over 454, 000 (22.8%) Texas children under age 5 live in poverty (SAIPE, 2017);
20.6% of Hispanic families live below poverty. 39.7% of Hispanic female householder families live in poverty
32nd in education
469,000 (58%) of 3 and 4 year-olds not enrolled in school, with Hispanics having the highest rate (63%)
64.2% of Hispanics have HS degree or higher, compared to 93.5% for NH White
13.8% of Hispanics have BA degree or higher, compared to 37.3% for NH White
47th in family and community
Nearly 2.5 million (35%) Texas children live in single-parent families.
More than half (54-56%) of Hispanic children live in single-parent families.
41st in health
Over 735,000 (9.7%) Texas children are uninsured. Second lowest child health insurance rate in the country. (SAHIE, 2016)
Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Year Estimates

7. Child Well-Being in Texas
2.4 million (34%) Texas children live in immigrant families
90% of these children are U.S. citizens
13.3% of Texas K-12 students have at least one parent who is unauthorized (2016, Pew Research Center)
2.07 million (28%) Texas children live in families receiving public assistance
Texas ranks 4th in births to teens and 1st in repeat births to teens
In U.S. in 2015, homicide 3rd leading cause of death for children under 5 and 4th for children under 10. (CDC, National Center for Health Statistics)
Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book

8. Teen (ages 15 to 19 years) Birth Rates, U.S. and Top 15 States, 2016
# of Teen Births ,765
Change in Teen Birth Rate
From %
From peak year, %
Repeat Teen Births
Number ,748
Percent %
# of Teen Births by Race/Ethnicity
NH White ,007
NH Black ,825
Hispanic ,604
Asian/Pacific Islander
2015
Teen Birth Rate by Race/Ethnicity
NH White
NH Black
Hispanic
State
Rank
Birth Rate per 1,000 Women
United States
20.3
Arkansas 1
34.6
Oklahoma 2
33.4
Mississippi 3
32.6
Texas 4
31.0
Kentucky 5
30.9
Louisiana 6
30.6
New Mexico 7
29.8
West Virginia 8
29.3
Alabama 9
28.4
Tennessee 10
28.0
Wyoming 11
26.1
Alaska 12
25.8
South Dakota 13
25.1
Nevada 14
24.2
District of Columbia 15
24.0
Births to teen mothers have been in decline in Texas since However, Texas still ranks high among states with the highest rates of teen births. Texas ranks among states with slower declines in these rates. Texas leads the country in repeat teen births, or births to teen mothers. In 2016, there were 31 births for every 1000 adolescent females ages 15 to 19 years, or 29,765 babies born to Texas teens. 19% of these are repeat teen births or are births to teens who were already mothers.
Research has found strong associations between teen pregnancy and education. For example, adolescents who are enrolled in school and engaged in learning (including participating in after-school activities, having positive attitudes toward school, and performing well educationally) are less likely than are other adolescents to have or to father a baby. At the family level, adolescents with mothers who gave birth as teens and/or whose mothers have only a high school degree are more likely to have a baby before age 20 than are teens whose mothers were older at their birth or who attended at least some college. At the community level, adolescents who live in more affluent neighborhoods with higher rates of employment are less likely to have or to father a baby than are adolescents in neighborhoods in which income and employment opportunities are more limited.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

9. Population Projections

10. Projected Population, 2010-2050, Texas
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections

11. Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050
Population projections by race and ethnicity suggest that Latino’s are and will increasingly be the largest race/ethnic group. The number and percent who are non-Hispanic white are likely to decline. Non-Hispanic other are largely of Asian descent and they appear to be increasing rapidly, although the base number is small.
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

12. Projected Race/Ethnicity Composition by Age Group, Texas, 2010 & 2050
Year
NH White
NH Black
NH Asian
NH Other
Hispanic
Children (Under 18 years)
2010
34%
12% 3%
48%
2050
22%
11% 6%
49%
Working Age (18 to 64 years)
47% 4% 2%
36%
28%
13%
42%
Seniors (65 plus years)
68% 8% 1%
20%
39%
10%
37%
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

13. Project Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010-2050
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

14. Hispanic Population Ages 0-8 as Percent of State Hispanic Population Ages 0-8, 2010 & 2050
The largest shares of Latino children can be found in the big urban core counties of the state: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, and Travis. Large shares can also be found in counties along the border: Hidalgo, El Paso, Cameron, and Webb. By 2050, largest shares will still be located in the major urban core counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis, but large shares will increasingly be located in more suburban counties such as Montgomery, Fort Bend, Denton, Collin, and Williamson. El Paso and Hidalgo are projected to have large shares as well.
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

15. Projected Race/Ethnicity Composition for Population 0-8 Years of Age, Texas, 2010-2050
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Population Projections

16. Lila Valencia, Ph.D. Office: (512) 936-3542 Lila.Valencia@utsa.edu
demographics.texas.gov
Lila Valencia, Ph.D.
@TexasDemography
The Texas Demographic Center is committed to supporting your work by providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.