Famine Early Warning Systems Network Food Security Update 29 April 2016

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK1 WRSI – Southern Africa 2nd Dekad April ‘16  Zimbabwe: one of the worst affected countries  South Africa: est. maize prod 40% of 5-yr average

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK2 1 Oct 2015 to 22 Feb Oct 2015 to 10 April 2016 Shows effects of widespread Mar/Apr rains Standardized Precipitation Index

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK consumption yr consumption yr National Cereal Estimates Maize prod: 742,000 Mt National cereal deficit (revised): 645,000Mt Almost all deficit filled with regional imports Est. maize prod: ?? Mt Est. national cereal deficit: ?? Mt Most of the deficit to be filled from international imports

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK4 Expected National Cereal Situation Less cereal carry-over stock vs last year & 5-year average Reduced local supply from surplus areas Higher international imports Higher maize grain prices Stable maize meal prices?? (esp. in the south with expected increase in imports)

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK5 Livelihoods assumptions - Apr-Sept ‘16  Lower than typical agric. labor opportunities and labor rates (Apr-May); less non-agric. labor and self-employment opportunities (Apr-Sept)  Less to no green consumption; lower than typical own produced cereal consumption & crop sales (May-Sept)  Less income from cash crops: tobacco, cotton  Less vegetable production & sales (May to Sept) – loss of source of food & income  Poor livestock (esp. cattle) condition, prices & incomes mainly in the south (Apr-Sept)

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK6 Macro-economic outlook Deflation to persist in the economy Poor liquidity & low incomes will affect mostly poor households The SA Rand to maintain weak exchange rates > lower remittances

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK7 Food assistance activities  March 2016 LSA: about 1 million rural people assisted  LSA: extended to April in some areas  LSA: to start earlier than typical (e.g. May 2016)  2016 ZIMVAC: May 2016 rural livelihoods assessment incorporating the national nutrition assessment & acute IPC analysis

__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Rainfall Season – Southern Africa  La Nina conditions expected for the rainfall season  Normal to above normal rainfall expected between October 2016 and March 2017  Zimbabwe: Cumulative effects and impacts of two poor rainfall and agricultural seasons may reduce potential livelihoods and production for