1. Food Security Update & Outlook
26 October 2016

2. Zimbabwe National Annual Cereal Deficit April 2016 to March 2017
Projections vary by agency
Need for standardized and harmonized projections to assist in well-informed planning

3. Formal Maize Imports April to August 2016 (ZIMRA)
August ‘16 imports increased by 50% from July; 147% higher than August ‘17 (41,000 MT)
Apr-Aug ‘16 imports are 52% above same period last year (225,000 MT)
Apr-Aug ’16 imports: 51% from international sources

4. Maize Grain Importation: Issues
Zambian export ban
Tanzanian uncertainty
Higher import parity prices for international grain
Logistics & security
Delays in international telegraphic transfers??
Uncertainties in the economy

5. Cereal Availability – Local markets
Maize on most markets is currently from local sources
Main source areas: Mash W, Gokwe S & other localized areas
Supplies rapidly depleting
“Distress sales” & local millers also source of grain
Maize meal readily available in most areas

6. Cereal (maize grain & maize meal) prices
Maize grain prices generally stable. Higher than 5-yr ave, e.g. 13% for FEWS NET sites (Sept)
Maize meal prices also stable across the country. Similar to 5-yr ave
Reasons: significant humanitarian assistance, poor liquidity, poor HH incomes, GMB subsidies, deflation, competitive m/meal sector
Projections Nov ‘16 - March ’17 – stable, marginal increases; uncertainty increasing

7. Southern Africa Maize Current Prices

8. Sn Africa Maize, % Change from 2015 Prices

9. Sn Africa Maize, % Change from 5yr Ave Prices (2011-2015)

10. Zimbabwe – maize prices for selected markets

11. Maize grain price projections, Binga and Buhera

12. FEWS NET Assumptions: Oct 2016 – May 2017
production and imports
rainfall and agric. seasonal forecasts
Macro-economic conditions
Maize grain & maize meal price projections
Agric & non-agric labor availability & rates
Livestock condition & prices
Remittances
Access to inputs
Humanitarian assistance
Acute malnutrition

13. FEWS NET IPC Phase Classification (coming soon)
October January 2017
February – May 2017