1. India- Role of Global Trade Flows McDonald Pelz Global Commodities
A PRESENTATION BY
McDonald Pelz Global Commodities

2. Not Bad Enough ( to ignore)
Global Trade and India
Use One word to Explain consistency of India in Global Markets:
Bad
Use two words for consistency/importance of India in Global Markets:
Not Bad
Please explain consistency of India in Global Markets :
Not Bad Enough ( to ignore)

3. The Irrelevant Factors
Population
Precipitation
Production
Peripheral
Prospects/Prices

4. Direction of Global Trade
Consuming Countries population possibly will increased steadily
Producing Countries will see stagnate population
Welcome to Asian and African Markets
Population in Million

5. China and India (Soybean Vs Veg Oil Import Index)
‘000mt, Source: USDA
Veg oil import growth in India is more phenomenal than China soybean import story

6. Changing Demographics will put lot more stress on Land resources…
More mouths to Feed
Source: Population Reference Bureau
MCDP Analysis
India will become most populated nation by 2030
Agriculture under stress
Urban population expected to increase at rapid pace- consumption will increase
South Asia will become worlds biggest demand hub
Changing Demographics will put lot more stress on Land resources…

7. Love IT… Hate IT… but you cannot Ignore IT
‘000mt, Source: USDA
India has critical Role to Play in Global Supply Chain across all commodities

8. Indian Monsoon last 145 Years- the rare events
Monsoon is the key to Production
Monsoon failed for 3 continuous years 2 times before and
Lead –
Green revolution
Increase in Irrigation Potential
Let us Hope 2016 has good rains in store for us…
Otherwise ……….
Source: IITM

9. Wheat and Corn Growing Areas
Wheat Areas
Corn Areas
Stable 4
Variable 4
Variable- All

10. Highly Monsoon sensitive Areas
Soybean and Mustard Sown Areas
Soybean Areas
Mustard Areas
Variable
Highly Monsoon sensitive Areas

11. El Nino and Impact on Indian Production
All no in mMT
Impact of current year El- Nino is still to be seen on wheat crop next year crop
Expected impact on rice crop is higher due to dry spells in southern peninsula
Rain deficit in key pulses regions lead to big rally in pulses prices in

12. Important balancing Role in Global Supply Demand Economics
Global Supply Hedge
El- Nino Effect on Global Crop Production
India was the biggest exporter of grains, oilseeds and meal in the Asian region
Important role in global supplies -la nina
Global production shrinks- india act as supply hedge
India proximity to - freight spread
India stayed food self sufficient
Important is to understand – Indian exports increases mainly in years of global deficit
Source: FAO Paper
Important balancing Role in Global Supply Demand Economics

13. Global Markets and India
Years of Indian Surpluses- La Nina
Years of Indian Shortage- El Nino
India/South Asia
Rest of world
World waiting for India to Export
Global Markets waiting for India to Import

14. Global Changes and Maize
Brazil is going through big drought-Gois, Prana and Mato worst affected regions

15. Global Changes and Maize
‘000mt, Source: USDA
SE Asia Trade Flow has grown at faster pace than India Production Growth ..
Domestic consumers need to be aware of global markets …

16. India’s Role in Global Wheat market
‘000mt, Source: USDA
Poor US/Black sea crops and higher carry-out stocks leads to Export of Indian wheat
Low Government carry out stocks in India and expectation of poor crops lead to imports
In year of low stocks market enter period of higher volatility

17. India’s Role in Global Corn market
‘000mt, Source: USDA
India Corn exports act as hedge against US supplies fluctuations (Weather Pattern)
So Buy Chicago- Sell India gives a good trading hedge to cover for short positions

18. India Prices Indian markets today can trade around 215
Freight of 15 usd
FOB 200
CNF Port 185
Ex Origin 165
INR Value – 11200
Chicago goes higher- 500
CNF 240
FOB 225
CNF Port 210
Ex Origin 195
INR Value – 13260
Market Analysis

19. Perception of Indian Corn- Quality
Global Trade- Standardized
Indian Exports- Customized

20. WE PROVIDE INSIGHTS- Beyond Data and Information to our Customers
SoAM
Black Sea
Asia- Producer and Consumer of
grains and Oilseed- we are here to cater your requirements
China Demand
Wheat Market

21. Worldwide McDonald Pelz
India Office
111, Centrum Plaza
Sector-53, Gurgaon India
Phone:
McDonald and Pelz is a cash grain, oilseed, and renewable energy brokerage organization whose aims and goals are to help our customers in the buying and selling of their products. Over the past 32 years McDonald and Pelz has become the industry leader and it is our objective to maintain this status through our growth globally.