1. OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS
Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture
OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY ON
CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Rome, Italy
March 2004
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

2. Introduction
At the request of national governments, the FAO/GIEWS usually jointly with WFP, conducts Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAMs) for countries facing widespread and serious food emergencies. Typically countries are annually covered by these missions. Most are in Africa but recent examples also include the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Afghanistan and Iraq.
The FAO methodology followed for these assessments is briefly outlined in this presentation. Further details are available from: GIEWS, FAO, Rome, Italy telephone no. (+39)
The WFP part of these assessments dealing with the vulnerability analysis is available from WFP – Emergency Needs Assessment Guidelines, 1999; Emergency Field Operations Pocketbook, 2002, and the FAO Guidelines.
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

3. Purpose & Objectives of CFSAMs
The primary purpose of CFSAMs is to provide accurate, timely and credible information on imminent food security problems in a country or a region so that appropriate actions can be taken by the governments, the international community and others to minimize the impact of man-made or natural disasters on the affected populations.
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

4. THREE MAIN COMPONENTS OF FAO/WFP CFSAMs
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

5. THE FINAL JOINT REPORT Integrated Picture of Food Balance, Gap and
Food Assistance Needs
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

6. Table of Content of a Typical CFSAM Report (Adapted from ETHIOPIA 2004 Report)
Mission Highlights
1. OVERVIEW
2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT
2.1 Macroeconomic situation
2.2 Population
2.3 Agricultural sector
3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2003
3.1 General
3.2 Rainfall 2003
3.3 Area planted
3.4 Factors affecting yields
3.5 Other crops
3.6 Livestock
3.7 Cereal and pulse production forecast
3.8 Secondary season (Belg) 2002, 2003 and 2004
4. CROP PRODUCTION SITUATION BY REGION
5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION
5.1 Agricultural markets and prices
5.2 Grain supply/demand balance
6. EMERGENCY FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS
6.1 Review of Emergency Food Aid in 2003
6.2 Household Food Security Outlook in 2004
6.3 Nutrition
6.4 Relief Food Aid Requirements in 2004
6.5 Food Basket Considerations
6.6 Local Purchases
6.6 Emergency Food Security Reserve
6.8 Implementation
Whenever it is relevant, public health issues such as the HIV/AIDS affecting food security and agriculture are also included.
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

7. Economic Analysis
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

8. Macroeconomic Profile of the Country
National Socio-Economic Parameters
Socio-Economic Conditions of the most affected
Agriculture Sector in the National Economy
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

9. Economic Parameters - Domestic
Economic Growth/Decline – GNP/GDP, Purchasing Power Parity, per capita levels
Fiscal Position – Deficit, govt. spending,
Inflation – food price inflation, effect on purchasing power
Unemployment – formal/informal sectors
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

10. Economic Parameters - External
National Trade Balance Position - Currency Position – Exchange rate changes, reserves, etc.
National debt
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

11. Socio-Economic Conditions of the Most Affected
Per Capita or Household incomes
In-kind Wage Earnings
Income Distribution
HIV/AIDS and other factors
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

12. General Development Indicators
Human Development Index
Poverty levels – various definitions
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

13. Agriculture Sector in the National Economy
Size and Share of the Sector
Employment and Livelihood, Dependence on Agriculture
Export Contributions of Agriculture
Ag. & economic policy changes
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

14. Food Production/Balance
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

15. National Food Balance Sheet
Domestic Availability
Total Utilization
Import Requirements
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

16. Table. Country X: Total grain supply/demand balance, January–December 2004 (‘000 tonnes)
Domestic availability
13 800
Opening stocks
Production
Main season
Secondary season
500
13 300
13 000
300
Total utilization
14 010
Food use
Feed use
Seed use
Losses
Exports
Closing stocks
10 944
650
1390 70
656
Import requirement
210
Commercial imports
Food aid received and pledged 50 60
Uncovered deficit
100
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

17. Domestic Availability
Opening stocks
Domestic production
Commercial and concessional imports
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

18. Stocks: Opening and Closing
On-Farm Stocks
Private Stocks
Publicly-Held Stocks
Stocks in Ports and Transit
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

19. Crop Production Estimation
Information – GOs, NGOs, Organizations
Macrolevel – Satellite imagery and data, Rainfall data
Farmer surveys, crop cutting experiments
Factors affecting current production
Market/trader visits – cross-checks
Yield comparison with last, normal, best, worst
Other important sources of food and income
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

20. Import Requirements Commercial import capacity Concessional imports
Uncovered deficit
Of which emergency food aid pledged/anticipated
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

21. Commercial Food Imports (Ability and willingness to import by public and private sectors)
Import capacity
Export earnings – historical, current
Import parity prices
Other priorities for imports
Commercial market capacity (effective demand)
Degree of currency control
Foreign exchange for food imports
Degree of grain marketing control
Private versus government trading
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

22. Total Food Utilization
Human consumption
Apparent consumption rates
Population estimates
Feed use
Seed use
Industrial uses
Post-harvest losses
Exports
Closing stocks
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

23. Vulnerability Assessment
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

24. Vulnerability/Needs Assessment (WFP)
Review of emergency food aid
Household food security outlook for next year
Nutrition status
Coping mechanisms
Food aid needs and targeting of assistance
Relief food aid requirements in 2004
Food basket considerations
Local purchases
Emergency food security reserves
Logistics issues
Implementation and other issues
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

25. Short Term Food Security Strategy
Number of people in need of assistance and the volume and composition of food aid (WFP)
Reconciliation of the national food gap (FAO side) and the total assistance requirement (WFP side)
Recommendations
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

26. If you have any comments or suggestions on the methodology, special reports, or this presentation, please send them to:
FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy