1. Maize Production Outlook and Implications for Food Security TEGEMEO INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT, EGERTON UNIVERSITY September 18, 2009

2. Presentation outline Maize production and consumption trends in Kenya Production expectations for 2009/2010 Stock management issues Policy implications

3. Maize production and consumption trends (2000-2008)

4. National maize production and consumption trends: 2000-2008 Source: Economic Survey 2008; MOA; & Tegemeo computations

5. Contribution of regions to national production: 2000-2008 Source: Ministry of Agriculture Rift Valley: increasingly an important source of grain Nyanza: declining contribution to production

6. Expected maize production shortfall for the 2009/2010 season

7. Expected yield based on assessment of current maize crop, long rains season 2009

8. Tegemeo’s estimation of maize production for long rains 2009 N/B: Production estimates and based on acreage figures provided by the MOA

9. Production estimates for 2009/2010 Best case scenario for 2009/2010 crop year is about 23m bags against a consumption of >37m bags –About 17.6m bags from the long rains season. This is the best scenario with adequate rainfall in areas where the crop was either at knee high, tasselling or milk stage as at beginning of Sept. 2009. –About 6m bags from the short-rains season with adequate rains; production is normally 15% of average annual production Worst case scenario Inadequate rainfall - could be very grim

10. Need for adjustments Estimated annual consumption of 37m bags exclude green maize YET our production assessment of 23m bags for 2009/2010 is not adjusted for green maize harvests –Reported levels of green maize sales : Nandi South: up to 60% Bomet/Trans-Mara: 40% Trans-Nzoia: significant Reasons: profitable; fear of rotting due to rains; decline in production of green maize in Central province Case for El-Nino Potential destruction of long rain crop in the fields (R/valley) Potential gains for short season crop Production from irrigation –Govt indicated some maize production from irrigation by December (minimal)

11. Bridging the production shortfall: Imports Under the best case scenario, Kenya will experience a shortfall of about 14m bags in the 2009/2010 cropping year

12. Maize stocks and management

13. Maize stocks (bags) as at Jul 30 th 2009 Source: Ministry of Agriculture

14. Stock management issue No budgetary allocation made for food importation for SGR in 2009/2010 (source: Ministry of Finance) Inadequate SGR (1.8m vs. recommended 8m bags) –NCPB not selling maize with implications on its price stabilization role Ksh.1 bn allocated for generalized food subsidy for urban poor Ksh. 5.35 bn allocated for general food relief for rural poor Total Ksh. 6.35 bn can purchase about 2.5m bags of maize –Can feed 10 million people for only 3 months

15. How do we raise maize stocks?/policy implications 2008 experience: –10m bags needed to be imported by May 2008 but not done until consequences were felt –Duty waiver on maize not granted until Jan 2009 –Effects of the waiver on maize prices were not evident until 5 months later

16. How do we raise maize stocks?/policy implications What to consider when importing –Quicker response when food balance indicates need for imports This potentially requires major budgetary allocation when major deficits are expected –Time lag between import order and arrival of grain in the country side (~2 months) –Information on supply of grains and movements in grain world prices –Duty on until end of June 2010 Review situation before removal

17. Policy suggestions for dealing with production shortfalls

18. Policy suggestions Short-term –Expansion of relief efforts Increase SGR Increase food relief supplies to the most vulnerable –Stimulating production Targeted fertilizer/seed support for short rains season Expansion of irrigation –Maintaining duty waiver Allow adequate/affordable imports Long-term –Productivity enhancing investments Expansion of irrigation; roads & railway infrastructure; R&D Improving access to productivity enhancing inputs –Working with private sector to improve access to seeds and fertilizers by farmers

19. Thank You