1. Public & Private Sector response to the 2016/17 Drought
3rd Annual Stakeholder Conference
Public & Private Sector response to the 2016/17 Drought
The State of Play
(Session 3)

2. ReNAPRI Scenario – Maputo(2015)
What were the assumptions on El Nino back in October 2015?
Below average yield levels in 2016 in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe
15 % reduction from baseline in SA and Zimbabwe
7.5% reduction from baseline in Zambia
Yield levels across the rest of the region are maintained at baseline levels
2014
2015
2016 (Baseline)
2016 (Scenario)
2016 (Actual)
South Africa
4.84 t/ha
3.35 t/ha
4.57 t/ha
3.88 t/ha
3.21 t/ha
Zambia
2.36 t/ha
1.95 t/ha
2.32 t/ha
2.14 t/ha
2.2t/ha
Zimbabwe
0.85 t/ha
0.48 t/ha
0.80 t/ha
0.68 t/ha
0.35 t/ha

3. ReNAPRI Scenario – Maputo(2015)
Projected price impact of El Nino & border closure in Zambia
Source: Davids, ReNAPRI network

4. Drought 2015/16
El Nino far more severe than anticipated – lowest rainfall since 1912

5. Impact of drought on production
Projected price impact of El Nino & border closure in Zambia

6. Impact of drought on S&D
25% decline

7. Impact of drought on food prices
Projected versus actual impact on prices
Source: Davids, ReNAPR network

8. Impact of drought on trade flow
Projected versus actual impact on trade flow
Source: Davids, ReNAPR network

9. Availability of white maize
Uncertainty of availability caused white maize futures to spike
Jul 2017 futures
Source: Grain SA

10. Impact on global white maize
Significant premium of white above yellow– US supply response

11. Beyond the drought (2016/17)
Production set to recover - predictions of normal/La Nina weather

12. Beyond the drought (2016/17)
Drought will have a long-term impact on the livestock industry

13. END