Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low Carbon Growth in Developing Asia: Regional Technical Assistance Project Overview David Raitzer, Economist Economic Analysis and Operations Support Division Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department

Project at a Glance Participation: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam Funding: Japan, UK, and ADB Components: model development, training, and analysis Sectors: Energy (power, transport, household,) and land use Implementation: Jan Jan 2016

Project objectives Develop a low-carbon growth modeling approach for the focal countries Provide training to enhance the capacity of relevant agencies and institutions to assess low carbon growth options Apply the framework developed in analyses of low carbon policy options

Why is this important? Costs of climate change are high and will be principally borne by the most vulnerable if low carbon growth is not pursued Identifies policy actions where emissions and emissions growth can be averted at lowest net cost Improves understanding of implications and resources needed for implementing potential international climate commitments

Modeling framework Two tools have been adapted and customized for regional analysis: Intertemporal Computable Equilibrium System (ICES): a global dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on GTAP World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH): a long-term hybrid CGE model, with detailed representation of the energy sector and representation of endogenous technical change Two categories of tools have been developed for national analysis Energy Forecasting Framework and Emission Consensus Tool (EFFECT): a bottom-up model of key energy-related sectors Dynamic Country CGE Models with high levels of sector disaggregation, detailed energy trees, and the ability to do distributional analysis

Roles and capabilities of TA models ModelGlobal interaction s Technical change Sector economic effects Abatement costs Distributio nal effects Best application WITCHXXLong term internation al policies ICESXXMedium term internation al policies National CGEs XXMedium term national policies EFFECTXXMedium term national actions

Different tools for different questions ICES/WITCH – What are the implications of global climate policies and interactions for countries in the region? – How can the long term costs of decarbonization be reduced through investments in technology and institutional infrastructure National CGEs – What are the economic effects of alternative national policy actions to incentivize emissions reductions? – What are the distributional effects of emissions reductions policies? National bottom-up models – What technical options exist to abate emissions growth at low costs? – What is the potential marginal abatement cost for emissions reduction in each country? National stakeholders from the region have been consulted and trained on these tools through many events –10 national workshops, 5 regional events

Capacity Building Regional Workshops DateLocationNo. of participants 1 st Regional Capacity Building Workshop 5-8 March 2012 Bangkok, Thailand 43 2 nd Regional Consultation Meeting 9 March 2012 Bangkok, Thailand 67 3 rd Regional Consultation Meeting 18 October 2012 Bangkok, Thailand 36 Regional Forum 29 April to 1 May 2013 Jakarta, Indonesia ~25 Final regional consultation 5-6 November 2014 Manila, Philippines ~25 Launch and final capacity building workshop January 2016 Manila, Philippines ~50

Capacity Building: National Workshops DateLocationParticipants 1 st National Capacity Building Workshops (1 st Round) Viet Nam16-17 July 2012Hanoi~85 Thailand19-20 July 2012Bangkok~70 Philippines23-24 July 2012Manila~60 Malaysia8-9 October 2012Putrajaya~27 Indonesia11-12 October 2012 Jakarta~29 Viet Nam Capacity Building Training on EFFECT :Transport Model October 2012 Hanoi15 Viet Nam EFFECT Training Workshop: Power Sector 25 Oct 2012Hanoi5 Joint ADB-WB Workshop –13-14 November 2012 Hanoi7 Consultation Meeting on Viet Nam Policy Matrix for Low Carbon Growth Scenario 16 November 2012 Hanoi Viet Nam Parallel Training Workshop ( Beginners & Experts) November 2012 Hanoi~43

National bottom up models (EFFECT) Fully developed for Philippines and Viet Nam, “beta version” for other countries – Identify technical potential to decarbonize through specific technical changes in energy production, consumption – Develop marginal abatement cost curves based on the financial opportunity cost of technological substitution – Offer practical guidance on actions by sector – Serve as the basis for incorporation of specific decarbonization actions in development plans and projects

National computable general equilibrium (CGE) models Served as input into the regional modeling Focus on the details of how countries can reduce emissions through country specific actions More sectors represented Possible to perform distributional analysis In some cases, interfaced with bottom-up models to give more complete understanding of effects

The regional synthesis report Principally based on application of the regional modeling tools Assesses the implications of alternative global climate regimes for Southeast Asia through 2050 Covers cost of climate inaction, cost and responses to action, co-benefits, and policy measures

Thank You!