1. Low Carbon Development Planning How to EFFECT Low Carbon Development

2. What is EFFECT? Excel-based, bottom-up, engineering style model Supports consensus building and planning in key sectors of the economy Helps assess the impact of policy choices on GHG emission levels Used in Brazil, India, Poland, and six Asian- Pacific countries Energy Forecasting Framework & Emissions Consensus Tool

3. How does EFFECT Support Low Carbon Development (LCD)? SCENARIO PLANNING Develop emissions forecasts over a 25-year+ period Prioritize GHG emission reduction Design development and investment plans Identify conditions necessary for a supportive, enabling environment for implementation MULTI-SECTOR FOCUS Power Generation Large-Scale Energy Intensive Industry On-Road Transport Household Electricity Use Nonresidential Energy Use

4. Transport

5. EFFECT – Transport model  Forecast change in –Freight and passenger transport needs –On-road vehicle fleet size and composition –Fuel/energy consumption and GHG emissions Why is it important?  Both passenger and freight are fastest growing GHG sectors in most developing countries –Increasing urbanization –Increasing household income  Both are often underestimated –In Mexico City, on-road transport almost half of total combustion energy

6. Transport Model  Current Usage: –Initially developed for the India Low Carbon Growth Study –Has been used in 9 city-level studies: Bangkok, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Manila, Ulaanbaatar –Used in Brazil Low Carbon Growth Study and Nigeria –Basis for CTF measurement methodology

7. Transport Modeling Framework

8.  Purpose Calculate and forecast Vehicle Ownership and Use Transport Model

9.  Purpose Disaggregate vehicle ownership and use Calculate and forecast Fuel consumption Fossil and Total GHG emissions Ultimate CO2 Local emissions CO, VOC, NOx, PM Transport Model

10. Five step process  Project ownership and usage of vehicles  Disaggregate vehicle population by type, technology, age, and fuel and project sales of new vehicles  Compute the fuel consumption and emissions factors for each specific type and technology of vehicle using the COPERT 4 model calibrated to local conditions..  Project improvements in vehicle efficiency using a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for distinct types and sub-types of vehicle.  Compute the energy consumption and emissions for each type and sub-type of vehicle and for the active vehicle population.

11. Compute Emissions Key Variables  Output from transport model or data on vehicle ownership and use  Historic sales data  Forecast sales mix  Fuel consumption data for calibration  Energy efficiency assumptions and adoption timeline

12. Improvements in vehicle efficiency Using an EU marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve (g/km) Based on hundreds of technology combinations Developed by TNO, IEEP and LAT with vehicle manufacturers on behalf of the European Commission TNO Science and Industry, Institute for European Environmental Policy, Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics

13. EFFECT Model

14. www.esmap.org