Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015 Crop Market Outlook Apr. 2, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)12,36010,75513,82914,21613,625 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1, ,2321,777 Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,51711,90414,68615,47215,427 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,5574,3155,0365,3005,275 Ethanol(mil. bu.)5,0004,6415,1345,2005,225 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,4281,3971,3671,3951,410 Exports(mil. bu.)1, ,9171,8001,850 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,52811,08313,45413,69513,760 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) ,2321,7771,667 Season-Average Price($/bu.) Sources: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2015

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)3,0943,0423,3583,9693,852 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,3253,2523,5704,0864,257 Crush(mil. bu.)1,7031,6891,7341,7951,840 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,3651,3171,6471,7901,820 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,1553,1113,4783,7013,775 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Sources: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2015

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Stocks Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Stocks Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Intended Acreage Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2015 Intended Acreage Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Intended Acreage Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2015 Intended Acreage Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 4/1/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 4/1/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2014/15 Crop Margins

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 Crop Margins

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Prices vs. Costs Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Prices vs. Costs Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Record corn and soybean crops, but also record demand  Markets are in a holding pattern, waiting for news  Watching South American crop progress and U.S. acreage  Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 USDA 2014/15 Futures (4/1/15) 2015/16 Futures (4/1/15) Corn$3.70$3.50$3.72$3.89 Soybeans$10.20$9.00$10.06$9.38

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: