1. Crop Market Outlook ProAg Outlook Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, Iowa
Nov. 5, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.4
-0.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.0
0.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,555
-30
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731 -1
Imports
160 36 32 30
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,316
-31
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,034
5,317
5,275
Ethanol
4,641
5,134
5,207
5,250
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,380
Exports
730
1,917
1,864
1,850
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,755
Ending Stocks
1,561
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.80
0.05
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
83.2
-1.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
47.2
0.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,888
-47
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
-19
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,109
-66
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,875
1,880 10
Seed & Residual
105 97
143
130
Exports
1,317
1,647
1,843
1,675
-50
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,685
-40
Ending Stocks
425
-25
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
9.15
0.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Yield Estimate
Source: USDA-NASS

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

18. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

21. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

22. Current Corn Futures
3.81
3.58
Source: CME Group, 11/2/2015

23. Current Soybean Futures
8.40
8.40
Source: CME Group, 11/2/2015

24. 2015/16 Crop Margins

25. 2016/17 Crop Margins

26. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

27. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

28. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Rain made grain, but we’re still debating how much
Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows
Negative margins for crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(11/2/15)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.80
$3.58
$3.81
Soybeans
$10.10
$9.15
$8.40

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: