1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop Market Outlook
Pro Ag
Altoona, Iowa
Nov. 14, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.1
158.8
173.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,755
13,925
14,407
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,236
Imports 28 29
160 36 25
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,904
14,782
15,668
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,315
5,132
5,375
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,125
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,397
1,363
1,385
Exports
1,834
1,543
730
1,917
1,750
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,083
13,546
13,660
Ending Stocks
2,008
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.8
84.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.5
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,329
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,958
Beg. Stocks
151
215
169
141 92
Imports 14 16 41 72 15
Total Supply
3,495
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,065
Crush
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,780
Seed & Residual
130 88
105 98
115
Exports
1,501
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,720
Total Use
3,280
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,615
Ending Stocks
450
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
11.30
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2014 Yield
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Soybean Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Corn Stocks
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Soybean Stocks
Source: USDA-NASS

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

13. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

14. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

15. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Current Corn Futures
3.96
3.59
Source: CME Group, 11/10/2014

21. Current Soybean Futures
9.97
9.78
Source: CME Group, 11/10/2014

22. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

23. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

24. 2014/15 Crop Margins

25. 2015/16 Crop Margins

26. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Projected record corn and soybean crops
Markets had adjusted downward to absorb projected supplies
Recent rebound in prices tied to demand growth
Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Futures
(11/10/14)
2015/16
Corn
$4.46
$3.50
$3.59
$3.96
Soybeans
$13.00
$10.00
$9.97
$9.78

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: