1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Fundamental Analysis of Crop Markets Minnesota Master Marketer Program Mankato, Minnesota Feb. 10, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20122013201420152015 Δ Area Planted(mil. acres)97.395.490.688.00 Yield(bu./acre)123.1158.1171.0168.40 Production(mil. bu.)10,75513,82914,21613,6010 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)9898211,2321,7310 Imports(mil. bu.)16036325010 Total Supply(mil. bu.)11,90414,68615,47915,38210 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,3155,0405,3155,3000 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,6415,1245,2095,22525 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3971,3691,3591,3700 Exports(mil. bu.)7301,9201,8641,650-50 Total Use(mil. bu.)11,08313,45413,74813,545-25 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)8211,2321,7311,83735 Season-Average Price($/bu.)6.894.463.703.600 Source: USDA-WAOB

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 20122013201420152015 Δ Area Planted(mil. acres)77.276.883.382.70 Yield(bu./acre)40.044.047.548.00 Production(mil. bu.)3,0423,3583,9273,9300 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)169141921910 Imports(mil. bu.)417233300 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,2523,5704,0524,1510 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6891,7341,8731,880-10 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)1051071451310 Exports(mil. bu.)1,3171,6381,8431,6900 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,1113,4783,8613,701-10 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1419219145010 Season-Average Price($/bu.)14.4013.0010.108.800 Source: USDA-WAOB

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 20122013201420152015 Δ Area Planted(mil. acres)55.356.256.854.60 Yield(bu./acre)46.247.143.743.60 Production(mil. bu.)2,2522,1352,0262,0520 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)7437185907520 Imports(mil. bu.)1231731491200 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,1183,0262,7662,9240 Food(mil. bu.)9459559589670 Seed(mil. bu.)737779660 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)3702281221500 Exports(mil. bu.)1,0121,176854775-25 Total Use(mil. bu.)2,4002,4362,0141,958-25 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)71859075296625 Season-Average Price($/bu.)7.776.875.995.000 Source: USDA-WAOB

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Yield Estimate Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Winter Wheat Acreage Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2016 Estimated Acres Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

22. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

23. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

24. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

25. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

26. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

27. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

28. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Biodiesel Production Source: EIA

29. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard

30. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. DDG Supply and Use 20112012201320142015 Production(mil. metric tons)36.333.536.537.136.8 Imports(mil. metric tons)0.4 0.50.4 Total Supply(mil. metric tons)36.733.937.037.537.2 Domestic(mil. metric tons)29.125.725.025.925.5 Exports(mil. metric tons)7.68.212.011.511.7 Total Use(mil. metric tons)36.733.937.037.437.2 Price($ per ton)217256205158 Source: USDA-ERS

31. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports Source: USDA

32. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports to China Source: USDA

33. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 2/9/2016 3.55 3.62 3.70

34. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 2/9/2016 8.63 8.34 8.38

35. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Wheat Futures Source: CME Group, 2/9/2016 4.83 4.48 5.02

36. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 Crop Margins

37. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2016/17 Crop Margins

38. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

39. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-OCE

40. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Arable Land

41. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Area Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

42. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Area Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

43. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Area Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

44. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Pork Production Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

45. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Beef Production Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

46. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Poultry Production Source: USDA-FAS-PSD

47. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Top 10 populations Source: CIA World Factbook

48. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Population growth 2016 to 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

49. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economic growth rates Source: CIA World Factbook

50. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

51. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Beef consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

52. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Pork consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

53. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Chicken consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

54. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn consumption Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

55. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean meal consumption Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16

56. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

57. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Emergence Source: USDA-NASS

58. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

59. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

60. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Corn Yield Estimate

61. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Soy Yield Estimate

62. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: NOAA-CPC 3-Month Temperature Outlook

63. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: NOAA-CPC 3-Month Precipitation Outlook

64. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: NOAA-CPC ENSO Cycle

65. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Markets Source: USDA

66. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Population vs. arable land share of global population arable land China19% 5% India17%10% US 4%13%

67. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Arable Land

68. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/