1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn/Biofuels Outlook Aug. 10, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20112012201320142015 Area Planted(mil. acres)91.997.395.490.688.9 Yield(bu./acre)147.2123.1158.1171.0168.8 Production(mil. bu.)12,36010,75513,82914,21613,686 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,1289898211,2321,772 Imports(mil. bu.)291603630 Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,51711,90414,68615,47715,488 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,5574,3155,0345,300 Ethanol(mil. bu.)5,0004,6415,1345,2005,250 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,4281,3971,3691,3551,375 Exports(mil. bu.)1,5437301,9171,850 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,52811,08313,45413,70513,775 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)9898211,2321,7721,713 Season-Average Price($/bu.)6.226.894.463.703.65 Source: USDA-WAOB

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Good to Excellent Ratings Source: USDA-NASS, Aug. 2, 2015 Nationwide, 70% of the corn crop is rated Good to Excellent Last year, 73%

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Corn Yield Estimate

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 yield estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Biodiesel Production Source: EIA

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. DDG Supply and Use 20112012201320142015 Production(mil. metric tons)36.333.536.637.137.2 Imports(mil. metric tons)0.4 0.50.4 Total Supply(mil. metric tons)36.733.937.137.537.6 Domestic(mil. metric tons)29.125.725.127.027.6 Exports(mil. metric tons)7.68.212.010.510.0 Total Use(mil. metric tons)36.733.937.137.537.6 Price($ per ton)217256205158 Source: USDA-ERS

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports Source: USDA

22. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports to China Source: USDA

23. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 8/10/2015 3.80 3.91

24. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2014/15 Crop Margins

25. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 Crop Margins

26. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Market was debating whether this year’s rain makes grain  USDA indicates it does  Exports retreating  Negative margins for 2014-16 crops 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 USDA 2015/16 Futures (8/10/15) 2016/17 Futures (8/10/15) Corn$3.70$3.65$3.80$3.91 Soybeans$10.05$9.15$9.45$8.99

27. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/