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Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

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Presentation on theme: "Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist"— Presentation transcript:

1 Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop Market Outlook Pella, Iowa Feb. 11, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted
(mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 Imports 160 36 32 50 10 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,382 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,315 5,300 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,209 5,225 25 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,359 1,370 Exports 730 1,920 1,864 1,650 -50 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,545 -25 Ending Stocks 1,837 35 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.60 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 82.7 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,930 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 Imports 41 72 33 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,151 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,880 -10 Seed & Residual 105 107 145 131 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,843 1,690 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,861 3,701 Ending Stocks 450 10 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 8.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4 Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

5 Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

6 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8 Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

9 Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

10 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11 Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

12 Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

13 Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

14 Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

15 Corn Grind for Ethanol

16 Current Corn Futures 3.71 3.61 3.54 Source: CME Group, 2/11/2016

17 Current Soybean Futures
8.66 8.45 8.48 Source: CME Group, 2/11/2016

18 2015/16 Crop Margins

19 2016/17 Crop Margins

20 Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

21 Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

22 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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