1. Crop Market Outlook Iowa Farm Business Association Meetings
Fort Dodge and Sheldon, Iowa
Aug. 9, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
168.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
14,540
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,701
Imports
160 36 32 60 40
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,392
16,281
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,324
5,200
5,500
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,225
5,275
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,360
1,367
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,900
2,050
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,692
14,200
Ending Stocks
2,081
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
3.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
46.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,929
3,880
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
350
Imports 41 72 33 25 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,145
4,260
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,890
1,925
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
109
125
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,795
1,920
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,862
3,794
3,970
Ending Stocks
290
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
9.05
9.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soy Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Early Corn Yield Estimate

7. Early Soybean Yield Estimate

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Advance Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Advance Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

16. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

18. Ethanol Stocks

19. Current Corn Futures
3.52
3.16
Source: CME Group, 8/8/2016

20. Current Soybean Futures
9.33
8.84
Source: CME Group, 8/8/2016

21. 2015/16 Crop Margins

22. 2016/17 Crop Margins

23. 2017/18 Crop Margins

24. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

25. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

26. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: