1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop Market Outlook
Ag Leader Technology
Ames, Iowa
Aug. 25, 2014
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
91.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
167.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,925
14,032
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,181
Imports 28 29
162 35 30
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,781
15,243
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,329
5,175
5,250
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,648
5,120
5,075
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,403
1,385
Exports
1,834
1,543
731
1,920
1,725
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,111
13,600
13,435
Ending Stocks
1,808
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.45
3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
84.8
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.3
45.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,289
3,816
Beg. Stocks
151
215
169
141
140
Imports 14 16 36 80 15
Total Supply
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,509
3,971
Crush
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,725
1,755
Seed & Residual
130 88 90 5
111
Exports
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,640
1,675
Total Use
3,280
3,155
3,099
3,369
3,541
Ending Stocks
430
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
11.30
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.35
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from 2013
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Corn Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2014 Yield
Bottom: Change from 2013
Units: Bu/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

18. Current Corn Futures
3.92
3.57
Source: CME Group, 8/22/2014

19. Current Soybean Futures
10.19
10.12
Source: CME Group, 8/22/2014

20. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

21. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

22. 2013/14 Crop Prices

23. 2014/15 Crop Margins

24. 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

25. 3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

26. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Record acreage for soybeans, much larger shift than expected
Projected record corn and soybean crops
Markets have adjusted downward to absorb projected supplies
El Niño watch continues
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Futures
(8/22/14)
Corn
$4.45
$3.90
$4.47
$3.57
Soybeans
$13.00
$10.35
$13.05
$10.19

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: