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What’s Gone Down Will Eventually Come Back Up

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Presentation on theme: "What’s Gone Down Will Eventually Come Back Up"— Presentation transcript:

1 What’s Gone Down Will Eventually Come Back Up
2017 Crop Markets: What’s Gone Down Will Eventually Come Back Up Integrated Crop Management Conference Ames, IA Nov. 30, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.5 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 175.3 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 15,226 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 1,738 Imports 160 36 32 67 50 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,400 17,013 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,280 5,130 5,650 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,206 5,300 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,401 1,429 1,435 Exports 730 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,662 14,610 Ending Stocks 2,403 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.7 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,361 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 197 Imports 41 72 33 24 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,588 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,930 Seed & Residual 105 107 146 121 127 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,050 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,862 3,943 4,108 Ending Stocks 480 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4 Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

5 Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

6 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8 Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

9 Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

10 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11 Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

12 Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13 Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

14 Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15 Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

16 Corn Grind for Ethanol

17 Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

18 Current Corn Futures 3.59 3.21 Source: CME Group, 11/29/2016

19 Current Soybean Futures
9.75 9.75 Source: CME Group, 11/29/2016

20 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

21 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

22 2017/18 Crop Margins

23 Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

24 Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

25 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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