1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Feed Outlook Drought Webinar for Swine Producers August 29, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20082009201020112012 Area Planted(mil. acres)86.086.488.291.996.4 Yield(bu./acre)153.9164.7152.8147.2123.4 Production(mil. bu.)12,09213,09212,44712,35810,779 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731,7081,1281,021 Imports(mil. bu.)148282575 Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,72914,77414,18213,51111,875 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1825,1254,7934,5504,075 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,7094,5915,0215,0004,500 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3161,3701,4071,3901,350 Exports(mil. bu.)1,8491,9801,8351,5501,300 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,05613,06613,05512,49011,225 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081,1281,021650 Season-Average Price($/bu.)4.063.555.186.258.20 Source: USDA-WAOB

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. DDG Supply and Use 20082009201020112012 Production(mil. metric tons)28.635.438.738.634.7 Imports(mil. metric tons)0.30.4 0.3 Total Supply(mil. metric tons)28.935.839.238.935.0 Domestic(mil. metric tons)23.927.530.931.228.1 Exports(mil. metric tons)5.08.3 7.76.9 Total Use(mil. metric tons)28.935.839.138.935.0 Average Price($/ton)126114188222275 My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use 2009201020112012 Production(thou. short tons)41,70739,25140,90036,000 Beg. Stocks(thou. short tons)235302350300 Imports(thou. short tons)160180200300 Total Supply(thou. short tons)42,10139,73241,45036,600 Domestic(thou. short tons)30,64030,30131,65029,300 Exports(thou. short tons)11,1609,0819,5007,000 Total Use(thou. short tons)41,80039,38241,15036,300 Ending Stocks(thou. short tons)302350300 Season-Average Price ($/short ton)311.27345.52390.00475.00 Source: USDA-WAOB

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Feed Pricing Source: USDA-AMS

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Exports Source: USDA-FAS

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports Source: USDA-FAS

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Meal Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Prices

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 8/24/2012 7.49 6.07 5.55

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  We got some rain, too little, too late  Biofuel growth and energy demand, RFS?  Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?  Drought is pulling supply down  But high prices are diminishing demand  General economic conditions  Continued worldwide economic recovery is a key for crop prices  US job recovery, European financial concerns, China?  2012/13: USDA:Corn $8.20; Soy $16.00 Futures (as of 8/24/12):Corn $7.49; Soy $15.87  2013/14: FuturesCorn $6.07; Soy $12.62  2014/15: FuturesCorn $5.55; Soy $12.15

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/