Gedo Region Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations Normal access in all livelihood zones and districts of Gedo region

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Southern Agropastoral and Bay Agropastoral High Potential)  Southern Agropastoral are more pastoral than agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment (fodder and bush products sales); main sources of food: purchase and own production  Gedo Agropastoral High potential are more agriculturalists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; main sources of food: own crop production and purchases. Riverine Livelihood (Juba riverine pump irrigation) are agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of crops and labour; main sources of food: purchase and own crop production. Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland and Dawa Pastoralists)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own production  Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and sheep/goat

Overall statement: Unfavourable climate in the region with below normal rainfall in most livelihoods of the region. Start of Season: started on time Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Poor rainfall with low intensity and inadequate duration, frequency and amount in the entire region. Near average rains received in pockets of the north: Luuq district (Qoroyaale, Haarxoday and Galiya villages) received good rains in 3 rd dekad of October (40 – 60% of normal) and 1 st dekad of November. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall

Climate Vegetation Conditions NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district/ land cover

 Civil Security Situation: Conflict incidents occurred in October at Belethawa town. Militia build-up on the other side of the border (Ethiopian side) likely to cause another confrontation  Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Displacement towards the main villages off the region and Mandera (Kenya). Imposed restrictions on trade movement in Gedo, with Belethawa and its surroundings to be most affected. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity

Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates Districts Deyr 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr 2009/10 Deyr 2010/11 as % of Deyr PWA ( ) Deyr 2010/11 as % of 5- year average ( ) MaizeSorghum Baardheere %18%17% Belet Xaawo Ceel Waaq Dolow %83%587% Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo %37%79% Luuq %41%179% Gedo Deyr 2010/111, %22%24%

Agriculture Regional Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends Deyr Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)

Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates DistrictsLivelihood Zone CowpeaSesameOnion Production (Mt) Bardere Agro-pastoral000 Riverine Garbaharey Agro-pastoral000 Riverine Luuq Agro-pastoral000 Riverine Beled haawo Agro-pastoral000 Riverine50120 Dolow Agro-pastoral000 Riverine Sub-total Agro-pastoral000 Riverine780 1,515 Total780 1,515

Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Good Crop Onion Harvest. Hiloshiid, Bardera, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Riverine Labour Availability. Hamare, Dolow, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10 Complete Crop’Failure. Tubaako, Bardhere, Gedo; FSNAU, Dec. 10 Good Maize Crop for Fodder. Bakalarose, Garbaharey, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10

Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Cereal flow : Sorghum comes from Bay, though the supply reduced following the crop failure in Bay region. Maize is supplied from Dolow Adde (Ethiopia side)

Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (Bardhere) Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (Luuq) Factors Influencing Sorghum Prices: Sorghum crop failure in all agro pastoral livelihoods of the region Reduction of sorghum inflow from Bay region following the sorghum harvest failure.

Agriculture Regional Trends in Daily Labour Wages Regional Trend Daily Labour Rate (Bardhere) Factors Influencing Wage Labour: Increased agricultural labour activities in riverine livelihoods as a result of interventions (canal rehabilitation, bush clearance, etc.) from last Gu season High inflow of casual labourers from agropastoral zones and neighboring regions (Bay, Bakool) into the riverine areas pushing the labour wages down. Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate (Luuq)

Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade (Labour/Cereal) Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate / Sorghum (Bardhere) : 6 kg/daily wage Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate/ Sorghum (Luuq): 8 kg/daily wage Factors Influencing ToT: High sorghum prices. Decrease in labour wage rates.

Deterioration of both pasture and water conditions. Abnormal migration of livestock to Juba and Ethiopia (Weeb and Mooyaale) Deteriorating livestock body condition, with the exception of camel. Livestock Rangeland Conditions, Water and Livestock Migration

Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Medium Camel Body Condition. Garbahaarey, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10. Empty Communal Water Catchment. Balanbaal, Ceelwaq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10. Low Water Availability. El-Ma’aw, Garbaharey Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10. Deteriorating Cattle Body Condition. Ceelcade, Garbahaarey, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. 10.

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Conception (Deyr ’10/11) Calving/ kidding (Deyr ’10/11) Milk production (Deyr ’10/11) Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11) LivelihoodsLivestock Species Gedo Low to None for all species Camel: Medium Cattle: Medium Shoats: Medium Cattle/Shoats: None Camel: Low Camel: Medium Cattle: None Shoats: None Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Near baseline (95% June11) Cattle: Decreased (25% of BL June 11) Sheep/goats: Decreased (20% of BL, June ‘11) Southern Agro- pastoral Same as SIP Dawa PastoralCamel: Increased (102% of BL June 11) Cattle: Decreased (21% of BL June ‘11) Sheep/goats: Decreased (23% of BL, June ‘11)

Livestock Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (Bardhere) Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (Luuq) Factors Influencing L.Goats Prices: Poor livestock body conditions Low demand on livestock after the end of Hajj period.

Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade (Goat/Cereal) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade between local goat/red sorghum (Bardhere) Factors Influencing ToT High cereal prices Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and high supply on the markets. Regional Trends in Terms of Trade between local goat/red sorghum (Luuq)

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Prices of most imported commodities remained relatively stable in the last six months Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices: Increased commercial imports after the end of Monsoon season Removal of road check-points between Mogadishu and Gedo. Improved road accessibility (Mido Road). Markets Gedo: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate

RegionNutrition Surveys (Oct – Dec 10) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu 10 Gedo Gedo Pastoral GAM =26.4% SAM =4.4% (3.5% (FSNAU & partners, December’10, R=1) Gedo Riverine GAM of 26.7% and SAM of 6.0% (FSNAU & partners, December10, R=1) Gedo Agro-pastoral GAM of 25.3% and SAM of 6.5% (FSNAU & partners, December’10, R=1) N/AHigh (>30%) and increasing number of acutely malnourished children reported in all livelihoods in the region ( Source: TROCARE, AMA, SRCS, HIRDA HIS Data, September- December10 R=3) OTP admission show high and increasing trend in the region (TROCARE, HIRDA, AMA- September- December10, R=3) Aggravating factors -High morbidity with 40.8% of pastoral, 40.5% of agro- pastoral and 39.8% of riverine samples reportedly ill. -Limited access to health services among the rural people due to distance and insecurity Poor household dietary diversity -Reduced milk access -Poor access to sanitation (<20%) facilities and safe water (<15%) -Suboptimal child care/feeding Mitigating factors -Improved Immunization status (vitamin A and measles) linked to CHD and polio campaign --Rehabilitation of severely malnourished through OTP -Increased income from sale of fodder among riverine communities -Provision of health services by humanitarian organizations Gedo Pastoral – Very Critical- Deteriorated from Critical phase in Gu10 Gedo Riverine: Very Critical- Deteriorated from Critical phase in Gu10 Gedo Agro-pastoral Very Critical – ‘No change from Gu’10 Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010

IPC Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation Key IPC Reference Outcomes: North Gedo: Dawa Pastoral - AFLC Watch, 75% P AFLC; Southern Agro-pastoral - 50% P AFLC & 50% P HE, Watch; Riverine – AFLC 50% P), Watch ; South Gedo: Riverine – BFI Watch, Southern Inland Pastoral - BFI with Moderate Risk; Gedo Agropastoral HP- AFLC 50% P AFLC, Watch; Southern Agropastoral - 50% Poor AFLC, Watch Acute malnutrition: Very Critical in Riverine, Pastoral and Agropastoral (deterioration from Deyr ’09/10) Food Access: In north Gedo: unable to meet 2100 kcal ppp day Water Access: inadequate in the hinterland pastoral area. Destitution/Displacement: No direct displacement for all rural livelihoods. Coping: Deteriorating coping strategies Livelihood Assets: Livestock is deteriorating, cattle herd size significantly below BL Main Contributing Factors: Significantly reduced cereal production (22% of PWA) with a complete sorghum failure. Poor pasture and water access/availability Decreasing trend for cattle and sheep/goat (< 30% of baseline levels) but sustained camel herds Decreased livestock reproduction and low milk production Increased cereal prices and deteriorated terms of trade (6 –8kg of sorghum/daily wage and 40 –42kg of sorghum/goat) Decreased number of saleable animals and reduced livestock prices Abnormal livestock migration (towards Juba and Somali State of Ethiopia) and reduced milk availability MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11

IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts Gedo - Affected Districts UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Baardheere80,628009,0000 Belet Xaawo42,3929,0001,00011,0001,000 Ceel Waaq15, Doolow20,8215,0000 1,000 Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 39,7714,000010,0001,000 Luuq48,0279,0001,0009,0001,000 SUB-TOTAL247,07627,0002,00044,0004,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 29,00048,000

IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones Gedo Region and Affected Livelihood Zones Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitaria n Emergency (HE) Gedo Agro-Pastoral HP26,607009,0000 Dawa Pastoral81,65417,000027,0000 Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine 31,2364,00002,0000 Southern Agro-Pastoral31,7516,0002,0006,0004,000 Southern Inland Pastoral75, SUB-TOTAL247,07627,0002,00044,0004,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 29,00048,000

IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District District UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Deyr 10/11 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Deyr 10/11 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Deyr 10/11 Gedo Baardheere 25,5448,0003,00043 Belet Xaawo 13,5973, Ceel Waaq 4,5591, Doolow 5,6741, Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 17,2525,0002,00041 Luuq 14,6763, Sub Total 81,30221,0005,00032

Poor Cattle Condition. Bardheera, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Trucked Water. ElWak, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Near Average Camel Body Condition. ElWak, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Poor Cattle Body Condition. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

A crop failure in Agropastoral. Bardheera, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Maize Crop For Fodder. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Good Cash Crops. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Good Onion Crop. Luuq, Gedo, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

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