1. Changing Livelihoods and Risks in the Arid Lands Food Security and Nutrition Working Group Meeting, 18 th April 2013

2. Purpose Growing evidence of dynamic changes in livelihood strategies in the arid lands of the HoA (cf Catley et al ‘Moving up or Moving Out etc; “Changes in the Arid Lands” research); Growing evidence of dynamic changes in livelihood strategies in the arid lands of the HoA (cf Catley et al ‘Moving up or Moving Out etc; “Changes in the Arid Lands” research); What does this mean regarding risk and developmental humanitarian response? What does this mean regarding risk and developmental humanitarian response?

3. Source: Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey, 2011 Ex-Pastoralists: Few or no livestock Sedentarised Dependant on aid: food assistance and social protection >50% of population Future prospects??? Diversified Pastoralists: Few small ruminants Other sources of income Sedentarised Highly vulnerable about 25% of population Pastoralists: Traditional or commercialised Mobile/ absent Cashing in on increased meat demand Highly drought resilient. About 25% of popn. Changes in wealth differentiation and livelihood strategies

4. Good rangeland access/mobility High market access Low market access Poor rangeland access/low mobility Future = commercialization and trade, domestic + export = continued use of mobile livestock production systems Future = “traditional” pastoralism and mobility Future = added value on livestock products = diversification Future = exits and protracted destitution for some = alternative livelihoods for others

5. Game Changers Shift from rural and mobile to settlements and urban/ peri-urban Shift from rural and mobile to settlements and urban/ peri-urban Commercialized animal rearing Commercialized animal rearing More diversified and cash-based livelihood strategies, and employment (formal/ informal) More diversified and cash-based livelihood strategies, and employment (formal/ informal) Emphasis on transition and educating young people into more stable and lucrative livelihoods (across all groups ?) Emphasis on transition and educating young people into more stable and lucrative livelihoods (across all groups ?)

6. What does this mean for risk? For example in the case of drought… Who are the vulnerable? Who are the vulnerable? Diversified pastoralists? Diversified pastoralists? Ex-pastoralists who are very poor? Ex-pastoralists who are very poor? Commercial pastoralists? Commercial pastoralists? Children in school? Children in school? Women in small settlements? Women in small settlements?

7. What are they vulnerable to? Still in the case of drought… Livestock Disease? Livestock Disease? Market prices? Market prices? Availability of labour? Availability of labour? Fodder? Fodder? Water? Water? Conflict? Conflict? Being pulled out of school? Being pulled out of school?

8. What does this mean for Risk? Despite the major ‘game changers’: Livestock remains the predominant economic activity in the arid lands; Livestock remains the predominant economic activity in the arid lands; Most people interact to some extent, directly or indirectly with the livestock trade - expanding rangelands concept: this is a very powerful way to spread risk; Most people interact to some extent, directly or indirectly with the livestock trade - expanding rangelands concept: this is a very powerful way to spread risk; Increasing population… fewer natural resources but growing economic opportunities. Increasing population… fewer natural resources but growing economic opportunities.

9. What does this mean for humanitarian response? Conventional Responses: Conventional Responses: Livestock off-take Livestock off-take Livestock health (vaccination, de-worming etc) Livestock health (vaccination, de-worming etc) Humanitarian Food Assistance: in-kind food; increasingly cash transfers; conditional/ unconditional; Humanitarian Food Assistance: in-kind food; increasingly cash transfers; conditional/ unconditional; Water trucking (human and livestock use); Water trucking (human and livestock use); Fodder provision for livestock (unusual); Fodder provision for livestock (unusual); Are these ‘fit for purpose’ for un- homogenous communities in the ‘new’ livelihood and risk environment? Are these ‘fit for purpose’ for un- homogenous communities in the ‘new’ livelihood and risk environment?

10. What does this mean for humanitarian response? New ways of doing business… Big Issues: Linking relief and development Big Issues: Linking relief and development Importance of understanding the context in terms of changing livelihood strategies and risk: action research; Importance of understanding the context in terms of changing livelihood strategies and risk: action research; Importance of understanding aspirations for the future, and especially transiting from traditional livelihoods: can we provide a ‘soft landing’? Importance of understanding aspirations for the future, and especially transiting from traditional livelihoods: can we provide a ‘soft landing’? Importance of keeping kids in school Importance of keeping kids in school Gender: with changing livelihood strategies, what new roles for both women and men? What are the opportunities? Gender: with changing livelihood strategies, what new roles for both women and men? What are the opportunities? Social Networks with people living in different locations doing different things: how to help to spread the risk? Social Networks with people living in different locations doing different things: how to help to spread the risk?

11. What does this mean for humanitarian response? No Regrets Approach No Regrets Approach Income and employment Income and employment Opportunities around expanding/ contracting social protection safety nets (risk financing model)? Opportunities around expanding/ contracting social protection safety nets (risk financing model)? Surge model for nutrition (and more?) Surge model for nutrition (and more?) Livestock/ crop insurance. Livestock/ crop insurance. MORE (Over to you!) MORE (Over to you!)

12. Times they are a-changin’: Can We Keep Up?

13. What does this mean for humanitarian response? 1. Over-arching Question: Livelihoods are changing rapidly in the Arid Lands: What does this mean regarding risk and humanitarian response? 2. In the 'new' livelihood and risk environment, Who is vulnerable and to What? (reference to the slide on the different groups: ex-pastoralists, diversified pastoralists; commercial pastoralists, kids in school; women in small settlements etc + the sub-hazards like price rises, conflict etc.) 3. What does this mean for Risk? i.e. probability of the risk of death? Risk of Destitution? Risk of hardship? 4. Are the traditional humanitarian responses and the drought management cycle 'fit for purpose' given all this change? 5. What are the opportunities for 'doing business differently'? What can be done to scale? Can humanitarian and development actors tap in and help support the existing risk-spreading strategies (expanding rangeland concept)?