Workshop recommendations: improving the quality of GHG inventories and projections for the LUCF sector part 2: Projections G. Seufert, Z. Somogyi S. Federici ?

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep , 2005 Projections Up to now, no LUCF projections reported Workshops in all other sectors, including Agriculture, already organized Mandatory and recommended parameters under the EU-IS for forestry to be specified Background:

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep , 2005 quantitative information from nine Member States available ~ 8 % of total EU-15 reduction required = 0.7 % to close the gap of 7.0 % 1 EEA Report No 5/2004 Projected importance of sinks 1

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep , 2005 Potentials (until 2050; Cannel, 2004)

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep , 2005 The European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) ECCP was established in June 2000 to help identify the most environmentally friendly and cost-effective measures enabling the EU to meet its Kyoto target Working groups, among others: –Forest related carbon sequestration final report available at –Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils final report available at

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep , 2005 ECCP-2 (april 2003) measures: 8% reduction of GHG by Mt CO 2 eq/yr emission in 1990 = 2000 technically feasible reductions in 2008 – 2012 Energy supply Renewable energies for Electricity (RES-E) Mt CO 2 eq/yr Bio-fuels in transport sector (RES-T) Mt CO 2 eq/yr Combined Heat & Power 65 Mt CO 2 eq/yr Biofuels, Biodegradable waste Mt CO 2 eq/yr Coal-to-gas switching (liberisation of energy markets) 120 Mt CO 2 eq/yr Energy demand Energy saving in households, tertiary sector, industry Mt CO 2 eq/yr Transport Inter-modal transport, Passenger cars CO2 emission reduction ??? Agriculture and Forestry Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils 66 Mt CO 2 eq/yr Carbon sequestration in forests 33 Mt CO 2 eq/yr CH4 from waste in land-fills (Land-fill Directive) 41 Mt CO 2 eq/yr N2O from soils (Nitrate Directive) 12 Mt CO 2 eq/yr Renewable resources for energy and material substitution Mt CO 2 eq/yr The European Climate Change Programme

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep , 2005 Projections Developing scenarios of activity data Due to strong influence of EU policy: integration of EU projections with those of MS is required E/R Estimation: use of models and various factors

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep , 2005 Agenda/projections Discussion Minimal protocol for reporting LUCF projections including –assessment of forest strategies, –key parameters/indicators –assumptions (based on a proposal by the organizers)

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep , 2005 Draft recommendations for forestry indicators Macroeconomic assumptions behind projections of forestry activities Forest definitions, it must be reported both the –UNFCCC GHG inventory forest definition and the Kyoto Protocol reporting forest definition Forest area, it must be reported for –Total managed forest area (specifying definition of managed area), –Total unmanaged forest area (specifying definition of unmanaged area), And for both the forest area (managed, unmanaged): –Forest area on organic soils, –Forest area on permafrost, Annual harvested forest area per type of harvest Annual burned forest area Annual rate of expansion of forest area (afforestation/reforestation) Annual rate of contraction of forest area (deforestation) It must be reported for every singular carbon pool of each forest area type: –Carbon stocks and associated parameters for calculation –Annual rate of change of carbon stocks and associated parameters for calculation Annex V of Implementing Provisions: Proposal for mandatory parameters forestry sector:

LUCF workshop, Ispra, Sep , 2005 Annex V recommended parameters forestry sector: The same mandatory parameters subdivided for forest inventory typology and/or forest species Use of fertilization in forest, Estimate of carbon release by exceptional events (storm, pests, etc) Use of organic soils for forest activities (forest management, afforestation, reforestation, deforestation) Parameters related to emissions from organic soils Parameters related to emissions from permafrost Draft recommendations for forestry indicators