1. Climate Change Mitigation and Complexity Agus P Sari Country Director, Indonesia EcoSecurities

2. Ultimate Objective of the UNFCCC “to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. “to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. “Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” “Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

3. Kyoto Protocol Greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the industrialized countries at 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2008 – 2012; Greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the industrialized countries at 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2008 – 2012; Quantitative emissions limitation and reduction commitments by industrialized countries; Quantitative emissions limitation and reduction commitments by industrialized countries; EU, 8 % EU, 8 % US, 7 % (later on pulled out!) US, 7 % (later on pulled out!) Japan, 6 % Japan, 6 % Russia and other ET, 0 % Russia and other ET, 0 % Norway, Australia, and Iceland, increase by 1 %, 8 %, and 10 %, respectively. Norway, Australia, and Iceland, increase by 1 %, 8 %, and 10 %, respectively. Can be undertaken individually or jointly with other countries through “flexibility mechanisms”: Can be undertaken individually or jointly with other countries through “flexibility mechanisms”: Emissions Trading; Emissions Trading; Joint Implementation; Joint Implementation; Clean Development Mechanism. Clean Development Mechanism.

4. A “Shared Vision”?

5. Mitigation is not expensive GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation GDP Time 80% current 77% ~1 year

6. Macro-economic costs in 2050 will be low Trajectories towards stabilization levels (ppm CO 2 -eq) Median GDP reduction[1] [1] (%) Range of GDP reduction [2] [2] (%) Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates [3] [3] (percentage points) 590-7100.5 -1 – 2 < 0.05 535-590 535-5901.3 Slightly negative - 4 <0.1 445-535[4] [4] Not available < 5.5 < 0.12 [1][1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates. [2][2] The median and the 10 th and 90 th percentile range of the analyzed data are given. [3][3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2050 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2050. [4][4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.

7. The four “building blocks” of the Bali Roadmap Mitigation Technology Finance Adaptation

8. R and D budgets Second generation (cellulosic) biofuel. Second generation (cellulosic) biofuel. Second generation geothermal. Second generation geothermal. Nuclear? Nuclear? Carbon Capture and Storage? Carbon Capture and Storage? Renewable Energy Energy

9. Market mechanism to reduce costs, transfer technologies, and foster sustainable development Clean Development Mechanism. Clean Development Mechanism. European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. Domestic permit trading (US, Australia). Domestic permit trading (US, Australia). Other trading mechanisms. Other trading mechanisms.

10. Market mechanism gaining momentum Restructuring and enhancement is necessary; Restructuring and enhancement is necessary; Releasing regulatory limitations; Releasing regulatory limitations; Increasing regulatory capacity and responsibility; Increasing regulatory capacity and responsibility; Increasing institutional cohesiveness; Increasing institutional cohesiveness; Enhancement of sectoral potential; Enhancement of sectoral potential; Enhancement of regional distribution; Enhancement of regional distribution; Number of registered CDM projects overtime

11. Reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) Land use change and deforestation, mostly in developing countries, contribute 15 – 20 percent of global emissions. Half of which from two countries only. Reducing deforestation means reducing emissions … And allowing developing countries to participate in mitigating climate change.

12. How can emissions be reduced? Sector (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Energy Supply efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 Capture and Storage Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning Buildings Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and airco; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and aplliances

13. Sector (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Industry More efficient electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling; control of non-CO 2 gas emissions Agriculture Land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques; improved nitrogen fertilizer application; dedicated energy crops Forests Afforestation; reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation; use of forestry products for bioenergy Waste Landfill methane recovery; waste incineration with energy recovery; composting; recycling and waste minimization How can emissions be reduced?

14. Implications for Indonesia - Australia Policies and Measures Policies and Measures Indonesia and Australia are coal producers / exporters. Indonesia and Australia are coal producers / exporters. Nuclear technology may have wide bilateral implications. Nuclear technology may have wide bilateral implications. Australia as technology provider. Australia as technology provider. Australia as investor. Australia as investor. Australia as buyers of carbon credits from Indonesia. Australia as buyers of carbon credits from Indonesia. Australia as investor / buyer of REDD credits. Australia as investor / buyer of REDD credits. International Relations International Relations Spheres: economics, political, security. Spheres: economics, political, security. Agency: Governmental, private sector, civil society. Agency: Governmental, private sector, civil society.