1. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Changes in scope and depth in NC3 The projections require: –wide range of competences and agencies –presently 11 agencies involved directly, agencies responsible sector integration –experts from universities and consultants The objective to: –consider all sectors and all gases Means Separate studies Workshops Seminars Scrutinising by agencies and experts

2. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work The needs according to the guidelines Priorities on : –important sectors –policy and market implications –new information on development –integrated evaluation the effect of policies and measures Energy Transport 1. Energy (52%)5. Agriculture (11%) 2. Transport (29%)6. LULUCF (0) 3.Industry (5%)7. Waste (3.2%) 4.Solvents (0.1%) Agriculture

3. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Basic approach With measures: –2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 Without measures: –1990, 1995, 2000 2005, 2010 With additional measures –Based on Government Commission for a new climate strategy (2000) or GB Other Non-GHGs (Sox, NOx, VOCs) –Projections of the EU Acidification and Ozone Strategy

4. 1990199520002005201020152020Year Emissions of GHG Without measures B a U with sensitivity scenarios With additional measures Aggregated effect of PaMs Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work

5. Energy and transport CO 2 (77 % of total GHG effect) –Consistency in GNP growth, population and so forth –A number of scenarios to study effect of energy supply system 2010-2020 CH 4 (1 % of total GHG effect) –Some new projection for vehicle emissions N 2 O (3% of total GHG effect) –Trend analysis ? Issues Phase-out of nuclear power The energy supply system Impact of emissions trading Development of transport Off-road vehicles and machinery

6. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Industry CO 2 (3 % of total GHG effect) –Trend analysis, expert advice N 2 O (1% of total GHG effect) –Trend analysis ? HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 (1 % of total GHG effect) –projections with detailed information on the emission factors Issues Rapid changes of actual emissions of HFCs, PCFs and SF 6

7. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Agriculture CH 4 (5 % of total GHG effect) –Trend analysis ? N 2 O (6 % of total GHG effect) –Trend analysis ? Issues Impact of CAP and Agenda 2000 Impact of national actions and markets Poorly integrated in climate strategy

8. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry CO 2 (Sink about 33 % of total GHG emission) –Net emissions from agricultural soils - No trends ?? –Net uptake in forest stock (above ground) - Based on models for biomass increment and market demands Issues Impact of CAP Impact of national actions and market Poorly integrated in climate strategy

9. Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Waste CH 4 (4 % of total GHG emission) –Modeling of the impact of future restrictions on depositing organic material –Modeling on the impact of methane gas –Time dependent decay of DOC in land fills Issues Importance of household waste and industrial waste burning