1. CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA
Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA
L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev
Black Sea Regional Energy Centre г.
ATHENS

2. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (1)
Bulgaria is committed to EU targets:
20% reduction of primary energy consumption
20% share of renewable energies
20% reduction of GHG emissions
Bulgarian Energy Strategy:
16% share of RES by 2020 (based on 9,6% share in 2005), of which 10% RES in the transport sector
50% reduction of GDP energy intensity in 2020 compared to 2005
increase of the energy efficiency by 25% by 2020 г.
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3. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (2)
National Energy Efficiency Action Plan of Bulgaria:
9% reduction of the energy consumption for the period 2008 – 2016
includes numerous measures (by sectors) to reach this target
estimates the energy saving effect and costs of the existing and planned measures by 2020
National Renewable Energy Action Plan:
National 2020 target and estimated trajectory of renewable energy in heating and cooling, electricity, and transport
Includes numerous measures promoting renewable energy development by 2020 г.
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4. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (3)
Third National Action Plan for Climate Change :
21% reduction of GHG emissions in 2020 compared to 2005 for the sectors covered by the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)
20% increase of GHG emissions in 2020 compared to 2005 for sectors outside ETS
Specifies GHG emission reduction measures and estimates their effects in terms of GHG reduction and cost г.
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5. BULGARIAN ADAPTATION POLICY
There are only few studies assessing the climate change impact on forestry and agriculture
Adaptation needs are stated only generally in the 5th National Communication and 3rd National Action Plan for Climate Change
There are neither a national adaptation strategy nor any planned adaptation measures г.
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6. THREE M/A POLICY SCENARIOS
Business as usual (BAU)
Optimistic (OPT) – ambitious M/A policies
Pessimistic (PES) –M/A policies with average ambitions г.
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7. BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIO Assumptions
The energy intensity of all economic sectors remains unchanged
In households, the energy consumption is proportionate to both the number of households and the average household income
In the energy production, only the planned (as of ) changes are considered – increase of renewable energy capacities, shut down of existing plants, etc
High adaptation needs, but minimum adaptation measures г.
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8. OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO Assumptions
Energy end-use efficiency: until 2020 the measures specified in the 2nd NEEAP (2011); in 2021–2050 additional ambitious EE measures
Gradual improvement of the efficiency of all power plants, except for NPP and HPP, and lower transmission and distribution losses
Change of the energy demand structure: e.g. gradual shift of the transport sector to electricity, reaching 65% electricity in 2050
Change in the energy production sources’ structure: e.g. quick expansion of renewable energy, slow expansion of the natural gas share, substantial decrease of coal share
Low adaptation needs, but these needs are seriously addressed г.
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9. PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO Assumptions
Additional M/A measures compared to the Business-As-Usual scenario, but less than the Optimistic scenario
The additional measures are limited to the most cost-effective ones г.
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10. BS: ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORSг.
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11. BS: final energy consumption by fuelг.
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12. BS: Electricity capacitiesг.
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13. BS: DISTRICT HEATING BY FUELг.
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14. BS – GHG emissions (CO2 eq.)г.
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15. Energy consumption in the 3 scenariosг.
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16. Electricity capacities in the 3 scenariosг.
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17. GHG emissions in the 3 scenariosг.
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18. Scenario evaluation Criteria Highest score Lowest score
GHG emission reduction
OPT
BAU
Indirect environmental effects
Cost effectiveness
Dynamic cost efficiency
Competitiveness
Equity
Flexibility
OPT, PES
Stringency for non compliance
all equal
Implementation network capacity
Administrative feasibility
Financial feasibility г.
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19. AGGREGATE SCORE OF SCENARIOS
BAU
OPT
PES
11,9
78,2
41,5
OPT has the highest score
BAU has the lowest score г.
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20. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev
Black Sea Regional Energy Centre г.
ATHENS