By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008 Daytime Drama On Behalf of the Maryland Association of Realtors.

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Presentation transcript:

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008 Daytime Drama On Behalf of the Maryland Association of Realtors

As the World Turns (more slowly)

Historic and Projected World Output Growth, 2004 through 2009* Source: International Monetary Fund * data are projections

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas, 2008 Source: International Monetary Fund

2008 Political and Economic Risk Map Source: Oxford Analytica

NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. Dollars June 1995 through November 3, 2008 Source: Energy Information Administration Oil Futures Future Prices are the lowest since May 2007 at $63.91 as of Nov. 3.

Global Risk Factors Source: International Monetary Fund Chart indicates relative contributions to risks to global growth WEO = World Economic Outlook (IMF) Upside Risk to Global Growth Downside Risk to Global Growth

Top 12 Stock Exchanges YTD Growth, as of Oct. 23 Close RankExchangeIndexYTD % Change 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite-66.6% 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index-50.5% 4Tokyo SENikkei % 10Borsa ItalianaMIBTel-44.5% 6Frankfurt SEDAX-44.0% 8Bolsa De MedridMadrid General-42.5% 5EuronextCAC % 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite-39.5% 3London SEFTSE % 1NYSE GroupDJI A-34.5% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite-33.2% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market-30.5% Source: Yahoo! Finance

Days of Our Lives

Dow Days Afternoon Week ofMon. Open-Close Tues. Open-Close Wed. Open-Close Thurs. Open-Close Fri. Open-Close Weekly Change 9/22-9/ (-2.4%) 9/29-10/ (-7.3%) 10/6-10/ , (-18.1%) 10/13-10/ (4.6%) 10/20-10/ (-5.3%) Source: Google Finance DOW 9/22: Opened at 11, /24: Closed at 8,387.95, Down 26.4%

Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index October 2001 through October 2008 Source: Conference Board

Retail & Food Services Sales January 2001 through October 2008 Source: Dismal.com

15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through September 2008 Source: Freddie Mac

U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through September 2008 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999 through September 2008 Source: Economy.com

Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2007Q2 vs. 2008Q2 Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -7.6% in 2008Q2 Boston: -10.8% New York: -5.3% Philly: -3.0% Baltimore: -4.5% Washington: -16.8%

Worst Performing Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2007Q2 vs. 2008Q2 Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -7.6% in 2008Q2

Maryland Median Home Prices, Oct. 08 vs. Oct. 07 RankCounty%ChngRankCounty%Chng 1Garrett County9.613Talbot County Harford County2.214St. Mary’s County Baltimore City1.414Montgomery County Anne Arundel County-3.016Charles County Dorchester County-6.017Somerset County Carroll County-6.118Prince George’s County Baltimore County-6.419Frederick County Washington County-6.520Calvert County Howard County-7.421Caroline County Wicomico County-7.522Kent County Queen Anne’s County-9.823Worcester County Cecil County Allegany County-27.5 Maryland-7.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Maryland Home Sales, Oct. 08 vs. Oct. 07 RankCounty%ChngRankCounty%Chng 1Harford County19.013Charles County Washington County7.214Allegany County Montgomery County7.115Baltimore City Howard County-6.415Garrett County Frederick County-9.117Cecil County St. Mary’s County Caroline County Kent County Queen Anne’s County Talbot County Dorchester County Anne Arundel County Worcester County Prince George’s County Carroll County Baltimore County Wicomico County Calvert County Somerset County-56.3 Maryland-12.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Active Housing Inventory by Suburban MD, October 2007 vs. October2008 Maryland = Oct. 2007: 49,136; Oct. 2008: 49,125 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors

Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction, October 2007 vs. October 2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Oct. 2007: 49,136; Oct. 2008: 49,125

Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates, Prime Mortgage Loans, 2005Q1 through 2008Q2 Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 1.42 percent of all prime loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter, an increase of 22 basis points from the first quarter of 2007.

Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates, Subprime Mortgage Loans, 2005Q1 through 2008Q2 Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of subprime loans in the foreclosure process was percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fsecond quarter, decrease of 12 basis points from the first quarter of 2008.

Maryland Auto Sales Sep Oct Source: Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration Oct. 08 New Car Sales: 23,216, down 29.6% from Oct. 07 Oct. 08 Used Car Sales: 50,727, down 14.5% from Oct. 07

CPI September 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI : +4.9% Core CPI*: +2.5% *Core CPI: All items less food and energy

U.S. Trade Deficit, January 2001 through September 2008 Source: Dismal.com

Value of the Dollar (Broad Dollar Index) January 1999 through October 2008 Broad Dollar Index: a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners. Source: Federal Reserve Board

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, * * data are projections Source: Congressional Budget Office

Guiding Light

Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2008Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2008Q3: -0.3%

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component, 2008Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Economy.com, Bureau of Labor Statistics Net Change in U.S. Jobs January 2000 through October /08: -240k Over the last 12 months (Oct.. to Oct.) the U.S. lost 1,078k jobs

National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups October 2007 v. October 2008 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -1,078k All Told Bush Scorecard Private Sector: +2,769,000 Public Sector: +1,661,000 Total: +4,430,000

Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups September 2007 v. September 2008 Absolute Change MD Total: +28.6K; +1.1% US Total: - 519K; -0.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Baltimore MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) September 2007 v. September 2008 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Baltimore MSA Total: +8.4K; +0.6% MD Total: +28.2K; +1.1% US Total: -722K; -0.5%

Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) September 2007 v. September 2008 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics DC MSA Total: +35.4K; +1.5% US Total: -722K; -0.5%

Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) September 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics RankStateRateRankStateRateRankStateRate 1South Dakota3.218Idaho5.035Missouri6.4 2Wyoming3.318Wisconsin5.035Oregon6.4 3Nebraska3.520Texas5.137Georgia6.5 3Utah3.521Colorado5.238Florida6.6 5North Dakota3.621Louisiana5.239Alaska6.8 6Oklahoma3.821Vermont5.240Illinois6.9 7New Mexico4.024Alabama5.341District of Columbia7.0 8New Hampshire4.124Massachusetts5.341North Carolina7.0 9Iowa4.226Maine5.643Kentucky7.1 10Virginia4.327Pennsylvania5.744Ohio7.2 11Hawaii4.528New Jersey5.844Tennessee7.2 11West Virginia4.528New York5.846Nevada7.3 13Maryland4.628Washington5.846South Carolina7.3 13Montana4.631Arizona5.948California7.7 15Delaware4.831Minnesota5.949Mississippi7.8 15Kansas4.833Connecticut6.150Michigan8.7 17Arkansas4.934Indiana6.251Rhode Island8.8 U.S. Unemployment Rate: September 08=6.1%

MD County Unemployment Rates, Sept RankCountyUERankCountyUE 1Howard County3.313Kent County4.6 2Montgomery County3.314Baltimore County4.7 3Carroll County3.515Prince George’s County4.8 4Calvert County3.615Worcester County4.8 5Frederick County3.717Wicomico County5.1 5St. Mary’s County3.718Caroline County5.2 7Charles County3.919Cecil County5.3 8Anne Arundel County4.020Allegany County5.6 8Queen Anne’s County4.021Washington County5.7 8Talbot County4.022Dorchester County6.2 11Garrett County4.123Somerset County6.6 11Harford County4.124Baltimore City7.1 Maryland4.6United States6.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Search for Tomorrow National economy set to slow as housing market weakness continues and as employers become considerably more defensive; Second half of year much much worse than the first; $700 billion represented a cap whereby federal government could choose assets it wants to buy through reverse auction (lowest offered price wins); & Washington, D.C. is the new financial capital of North America.

Thank You You can always reach me at If you appreciate this type of information and would like regular updates, please see our newsletter service at Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at ( SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.