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Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Towson University November 18, 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Towson University November 18, 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Towson University November 18, 2005

2 Target Rate vs. Effective Funds Rate Last Meeting Raised Federal Funds Target Rate to 4.00% Today’s Effective Federal Funds Rate 4.00% Source: Bloomberg

3 Economic Indicators

4 Components of GDP Growth 3Q 2005 Source: BEA Total Goods and Services 3.8%

5 Consumer Price Index vs. Producer Price Index S.A. January 1999-September 2005 CPI October 2005: +0.2% Core: +0.2% PPI October 2005: +0.7% Source: BLS M/M percent change

6 Personal Consumption Expenditures September 2005 Source: BEA PCE September 2005: 0.5% Y/Y percent change

7 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey September 2001-November 2005 Source: Economy.com Rose to 79.9 in November from 74.2 in October

8 Labor Sector

9 Payroll Employment S.A. January 2001-October 2005 Net Change October 2005 +56,000 Source: BLS

10 Unemployment Rate vs. Labor Force Participation Rate January 2004-November 2005 Unemployment Labor Force Participation Source: BLS Current Unemployment: 5.0% Current Labor Force Participation Rate: 66.1%

11 Total Initial Claimants S.A. October 2001-September 2005 Source: BLS Total Jobless Claims September 2005: 257,454

12 Productivity 3 rd Quarter 2005 Percent Change Source: BLS

13 Finance Sector

14 Risk Spread January 2001-November 2005 Interest Rate Source: FRED

15 Term Spread January 2001-November 2005 Interest Rate Source: FRED

16 International Sector

17 Trade and Current Account Deficits RankCountryExports Y-T-D (billions, $US) Imports Y-T-D (billions, $US) Surplus or Deficit (billions, $US) Percent of Total Trade 1Canada$140.4$189.7-$49.319.70% 2Mexico$81.4$114.8-$33.411.70% 3China$25.5$139.9-$114.49.90% 4Japan$40.4$95.6-$55.28.10% 5Federal Republic of Germany $23.2$56.3-$33.14.70% All Countries$603.9$1,073.4-$469.5--------- Trade Deficit YTD: -$469,500,000,000 Deficit as a percentage of 3 rd Quarter GDP 2005: 3.7% Deficit as a percentage of 3 rd Quarter GDP 2004: 5% Source: Census Bureau, BEA

18 Foreign Exchange Rates 11/04/051 Month Ago 1 Year AgoPercent Change 1 Month Percent Change 1 Year Euro0.84550.83910.77620.8%8.91% Yen118.20114.33106.023.4%11.5% Yuan8.08568.09208.2765-0.1%-2.3% Source: FRED

19 Energy Sector

20 Natural Gas vs. Effective Funds Rate Source: FRED, EIA Effective Funds Rate $ per MMBTU

21 Crude Oil vs. Effective Funds Rate Source: FRED, EIA Effective Funds Rate $ per barrel

22 Real Estate Sector

23 Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales Month to Month Percent Change June 2005-September 2005 Source: National Association of Realtors M/M Percent Change

24 Office Vacancy Rates for Select Metropolitan Areas, Mid-Year 2005 Source: Delta Associates Vacancy Rate

25 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate, Weekly November 10, 2005: 6.36% Percent Source: FRED

26 Retail Sector

27 Retail & Food Services Sale, Y/Y Percent Change January 2001 through October 2005 Source: Dismal.com Y/Y Percent Change

28 Discussion

29 The Committee believes that continuing to address potential inflation at a pace that is likely to be measured is the best course of action at present. Therefore we will raise the target rate twenty five basis points to 4.25 percent. The Committee will respond to any inflationary pressures with appropriate action to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. To be released in a statement shortly following this meeting…

30 Thank You Mileva Cohen Brian Dinterman Thomas Dowling Jessica Fox Chris Goodman Andrew Young Dr. Matthew Chambers - Advisor


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