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William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville November 17, 2015 The 2016 Economy Looks Like.

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Presentation on theme: "William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville November 17, 2015 The 2016 Economy Looks Like."— Presentation transcript:

1 William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville November 17, 2015 The 2016 Economy Looks Like 2015

2 2 DILBERT by SCOTT ADAMS William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

3 Some Known Potential Shocks China, and worldwide slowdown Southern Europe and debt crisis Oil Prices Fed Rate Hike 3William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

4 4 Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2009 Dollars) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

5 5 Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chained 2009 Dollars) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

6 U.S. Regular Gasoline Prices 6William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

7 Estimated Total E-Commerce Sales *Sales-taxing states only. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu7November 17, 2015

8 8 Total Consumer Debt Balance William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

9 9 Household Savings Rate William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

10 10 Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

11 11 Unit Sales of Existing Homes and Housing Starts William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

12 All Housing Units, 2000-2014 12 * William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

13 13 Growth in Quarterly Real Business Investment William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

14 Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 14William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

15 Unified Federal Budget Surplus William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu15November 17, 2015

16 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu16 Annual Deficits, 2002 to 2025 November 17, 2015

17 17 Real Exports Less Imports William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

18 18 U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Production, 1998–2014 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

19 19 Interest Rates and Inflation William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

20 20 Tennessee Nonfarm Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted, 2004–2015 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

21 21 Tennessee & U.S. Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

22 Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector (September 2015 as a Share of December 2007) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu22November 17, 2015

23 Nonfarm Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending September 2014 to September 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu23November 17, 2015

24 24 Total State Budget, FY2015-16 Where Your State Tax Dollar Goes William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

25 State & Local Tax Revenue as a Percentage of Personal Income, 2012 U.S. =10.5% Tennessee = 8.4% Greater than 10.5% (16) Less than 8.4% (1) 8.4% to 10.5% (33) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu25November 17, 2015

26 Tennessee Tax Revenues, Total and Share of Personal Income 26 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu November 17, 2015

27 27 Growth in Sales Tax Revenue 3-Month Moving Average, Year-Over-Year Increase William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

28 28 Sales Tax Collections by Category of Sales (Quarter Ending July 2014 to July 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

29 29 Tennessee State Sales Tax Breadth of Base Source: State Tax Notes, Mikesell. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

30 30 Rainy Day Fund by Fiscal Year William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

31 Tax Cuts Gift tax Inheritance tax Lower rate for food Larger exemption for the Hall Income Tax November 17, 2015William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu31

32 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu32November 17, 2015

33 33 Higher Education Allocation, University of Tennessee *Estimated **Recommended William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

34 34 Higher Education Allocation, Board of Regents *Estimated **Recommended William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

35 Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (chained 2009 dollars) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu35November 17, 2015

36 Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (chained 2009 dollars) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu36November 17, 2015

37 Growth in Quarterly Real Private Residential Fixed Investment and Housing Starts William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu37November 17, 2015

38 Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles and Housing Starts William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu38November 17, 2015

39 U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate and Real Exports Less Imports William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu39November 17, 2015

40 Unified Federal Budget Surplus William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu40November 17, 2015

41 Interest Rates and Inflation William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu41November 17, 2015

42 Tennessee and U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth (year-over-year growth) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu42November 17, 2015

43 Tennessee Monthly Nonfarm Jobs, 2004–2015 (seasonally adjusted) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu43November 17, 2015

44 Tennessee Employment Distribution by Industry, 2014 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu44November 17, 2015

45 Tennessee and U.S. Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu45November 17, 2015

46 Tennessee Job Growth by Sector (Quarter Ending Sept. 2014 to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu46November 17, 2015

47 Nonfarm Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending Sept. 2014 to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu47November 17, 2015

48 Change in Total Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 5.8% Tennessee: 9.3% Less than 5.8% (29) 5.8% to 9.3% (11) Greater than 9.3% (10) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu48November 17, 2015

49 Change in Sales Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 5.2% Tennessee: 4.4% Less than 4.4% (19) 4.4% to 5.2% (11) Greater than 5.2% (15) n.a. (5) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu49November 17, 2015

50 Change in Corporate Income Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 3.3% Tennessee: 65.8% Less than 3.3% (19) 3.3% to 65.8% (25) Greater than 65.8% (2) n.a. (4) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu50November 17, 2015

51 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu51November 17, 2015

52 Actual Tax Collection Revenues and Revenues Adjusted for Inflation, 2003–2017 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu52November 17, 2015

53 Growth in Adjusted Tax Collections 1972–2017 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu53November 17, 2015

54 Growth in Sales Tax Revenue (3-month moving average) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu54November 17, 2015

55 Sales Tax Collections by Category of Sales (Quarter Ending Sept. 2014 to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu55November 17, 2015

56 Realty Transfer and Mortgage Tax Collections (3-month moving average) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu56November 17, 2015

57 Sales Tax Collections, Actual vs. Rate Adjusted, 1971–2014 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu57November 17, 2015

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