1. Prince William Chamber of Commerce October 13, 2011 What Kind of Recovery Has It Been and the Outlook for the Economy’s Future Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University

2. Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

3. Quarterly GDP July 2011 Series Revisions vs. Original >> FORECAST > > > Data through to Q2 2011 are original and revised from BEA. Estimates for Q3 2011 and beyond are from Global Insight, pre-July and post July BEA revisions

4. L.I. C.I. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov 2006 – Aug 2011 RECESSION >

5. U.S. Leading Index 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

6. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices

7. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Sep = + 1.46 M Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

8. U.S. Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 – Sept 2011 (000s)Total = 1,490 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

9. U.S. Job Change by Sector Aug 2011 – Sept 2011 (000s)Total = 103 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

10. Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average 414 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted Aug = 9.1 % GI FCST 11 – 9.1 12 – 9.1 13 – 8.8 14 – 8.1 15 – 7.3 16 – 6.8

12. Consumer Prices 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > > % Source: BLS, Global Insight

13. Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > >

14. Consumer Confidence 100 Present Situation Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15. U.S. Housing Trends New & Existing Home Sales Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale) (000s)

16. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Forecast > > > > >

17. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2013 % Forecast > > > > > >

18. Economic Trends In The Washington Metropolitan Area

19. 15 Largest Metro Areas 2010 GRP ($ Bil Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

20. 15 Largest Metro Areas GRP Percent Change 2007-10 % Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

21. Share of Washington Area Economy 1970-2010 Northern Virginia Suburban MD D.C. % of GRP

22. Population in the Washington MSA By Sub-State Area, 1900 - 2010 1000s Northern VA D.C. Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis Suburban MD

23. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

24. Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

25. Thousands Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area 1991 - 2010 Avg. = 36,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

26. Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

27. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

28. Job Change by Sector Aug 2010 – Aug 2011 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 100 Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

29. Job Change by Sector Aug 2010 – Aug 2011 Northern Virginia (000s) Total +600 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

30. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Aug 2010 – Aug 2011 (000s) Washington +100 Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

31. 10.9 – DC 9.1 – U.S. 6.4 – SMD 6.1 – MSA 4.8 - NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

32. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate August 2011 % US 9.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 6.1

33. Housing Market Trends

34. Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through September 2011 12-Month Moving Average Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

35. Total Active Listings Per Sale September Each Year LDN PG FFXARL DC MONT PW Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

36. Median House Sales Price Washington MSA Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis $315,200 Sept 2011

37. Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2009 2010 2011

38. Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2009 2010 2011

39. Washington MSA Building Permits 2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis

40. Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area

41. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

42. Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) 20082009201020112012201320142015 D.C.10.1-2.29.53.35.78.69.39.8 Sub. MD -3.3-25.1-5.94.67.511.314.116.2 No. VA 6.1-23.08.715.717.119.621.522.1 REGION12.9-50.311.323.630.339.544.948.1 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11

43. % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.

44. cra.gmu.edu