1. Emerging Growth: Mid- Decade Economic Trends University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research http://cedr.unt.edu April 2015

2. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U. S. Real GDP Growth Annual Percentage Change 2014: 2.4%

3. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Real Economic Growth Gross domestic product ’10 2011 2012 2013 2014 4Q 2014: 2.2%

4. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2013 2014 2015 Nonfarm Payrolls Monthly change, in thousands Mar. 2015: 126,000

5. Nonfarm Payrolls 2009-Present Monthly change, in thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

6. 2013 2014 2015 Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas Human Sacrifice Number of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands) Mar. ’15 36,594

7. Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas Human Sacrifice 2009-Present Number of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)

8. U. S. Jobless Rate Seasonally adjusted Mar. ’15: 5.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014 2015

9. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Feb. ’15: $15.13 trillion 2014 ’15 Personal Income Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates

10. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income 2000-14 Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates

11. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis 2014 ’15 Personal Consumption In trillions Feb. ’15: $12.1 trillion

12. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Consumption 2000-14 In trillions

13. Source: U.S. Commerce Department Feb. 2015: $437 billion 2014 ’15 Retail Sales Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

14. Source: U.S. Commerce Department Retail Sales 2009-Present Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

15. Source: Federal Reserve Board Jan. 2015: 106.2 Industrial Production Index, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted

16. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Construction Spending In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 2014 ’15 Feb. 2015: $967.2 billion

17. Source: Commerce Department Construction Spending 2009-Present In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

18. Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau Housing Starts New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates. 2014 ’15 Feb. ’15: 897,000

19. Housing Starts 2000-14 New private housing starts, in thousands. Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

20. Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands) 43.8 25.9

21. Sources: US Census Bureau and National Association of Home Builders Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued (in thousands) 36.2 22.7 49.6

22. New-Home Sales Single-family homes (in thousands) Feb. 2015: 539,000 2013 2014 ’15 Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau

23. Source: The National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales Annual rate, in millions of dwelling units. Feb. 2015: 4.9 million

24. 2000:Q12014:Q32014:Q4Low PointDate of Low Point United States62.861.862.840.42006 : Q3 Los Angeles40.216.316.21.82006 : Q3 New York42.121.624.75.12006 : Q3/Q4 Miami58.847.746.3102007 : Q1 Austin57.561.261.549.92000 : Q4 Dallas65.35556.353.72007 : Q3 Houston66.255.55847.42007 : Q3 San Antonio63.357.260.546.52006 : Q3 Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability (Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify) Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR

25. Productivity Nonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 4Q 2014: -2.2% ’10 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

26. Producer Prices Percentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted. 2014 ’15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb. 2015: -0.5%

27. Consumer Prices Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) 2014 ’15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Feb. 2015: 0.2%

28. Source: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 2014 2015 Mar. 2015: 101.3

29. Consumer Confidence: 2009-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board

30. Leading Indicators Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2010=100. Feb. 2015: 121.8

31. Things to Worry About  Pace of job growth  Unfunded pension liabilities  European sovereign default  Corporate and consumer debt  Federal Deficits/Debt  Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes  Political gridlock  Environmental regulations  Market volatility

32. Source: Congressional Budget Office Budget Deficit In billions of dollars 2012: -$1.09 trillion 2013: -$679.5 billion 2014 Projected: -$483.3 billion 2015 Projected: -$468 billion 2016 Projected: -$467 billion

33. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce International Goods & Services Trade Deficit Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance. 2014 ’15 Feb. 2015: $35.4 billion

34. Source: Federal Reserve Board Household Net Worth In trillions ’10 2011 2012 2013 2014 4Q 2014: $82.9 trillion

35. Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts Personal Bankruptcy Filings Fiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions)

36. Business Bankruptcies 199937,884200728,322 200035,472200843,546 200140,099200960,837 200238,540201056,282 200335,037201147,806 200434,317201240,075 200539,201201333,212 200619,695201428,319 Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

37. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Feb. ’15: 5.8% 2013 2014 ’15 Savings Rate As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

38. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Savings Rate 2000-2014 As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

39. Longest Recession Since 1933 Ended June 2009 Federal Reserve Bank Dallas

40. Last Data Entry: Jan. 2015 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Leading Index 1981-Present Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100

41. Source: Texas Workforce Commission Unemployment Rates: U.S., Texas, and D/FW Metro U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted U. S. Feb. 2015 = 5.5% Texas Feb. 2014 = 4.3% D/FW Feb. 2014 = 4.1%

42. Source: Texas Workforce Commission Ft. Worth-Arlington MD Nonagricultural Employment

43. Source: Texas Workforce Commission Dallas-Plano-Irving MD Nonagricultural Employment

44. Sales and Use Tax Allocations 2011201220132014 % Chg 13-14 Allen27,499,53429,874,63431,856,09135,320,91510.88% Arlington86,127,96788,941,22994,043,81093,694,878-0.37% Dallas215,394,908232,445,766242,456,290256,926,0275.97% Fort Worth105,424,832112,745,846118,919,449126,263,0026.18% Frisco44,280,59049,889,48858,676,77269,603,04318.62% Plano66,325,56368,410,25169,804,50975,393,7028.01% Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

45. Conclusions  The US recession is technically over.  Financial sector risk  Texas has performed better than nation We’ve been “lucky puppies”  Market / consumer confidence is major headwind  Political failure is hurting growth Address deficit, reform taxes, address market volatility  Housing market will start recovery  Local job market growing

46. Questions? Contact info: 940-565-4049 http://cedr.unt.edu