1. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC LAEDC Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Office of the City Controller, Los Angeles February 10, 2015

2. U.S. Economy California Economy Los Angeles County City of Los Angeles Conclusion/Outlook Kyser Center for Economic Research Outline

3. U.S. Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research

4. U.S. Economy - accelerating Labor market – expansion Oil - gift World economy - struggling Stock market - volatility Kyser Center for Economic Research National Highlights

5. U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 2015: 5.7%

6. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth MTM changes in thousands, Seasonally Adjusted

7. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Kyser Center for Economic Research Link Between GDP and Employment GDP 2014: +2.4

8. Consumer Spending Business Spending Net Exports Government Purchases Kyser Center for Economic Research Sectors of Macroeconomy

9. Source: US Bureau of the Census Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Retail Trade & Food Sales Dec 2014: +3.5% Percent change from a year ago

10. Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Total New Vehicle Sales Millions of Vehicles Source: BEA

11. Kyser Center for Economic Research Key Interest Rates Source: Federal Reserve

12. Source: US Energy Information Administration Kyser Center for Economic Research Crude Oil Prices 2005-2014 Dollars/barrel

13. Forecast Source: LAEDC (Feb 6, 2015) Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Economy to Accelerate in 2015

14. Kyser Center for Economic Research California Economy

15. State - faster Tech – leading Housing – potential Drought - constraint Kyser Center for Economic Research California Highlights

16. California Adding Jobs Faster than U.S. Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted

17. CA Unemployment Rate Falling Quickly Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research Unemployment Rate

18. Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research Job Trends by California Metro Area Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted CALIFORNIA – Dec 2014: +320,300 +2.1% YTY

19. Forecast Source: LAEDC (Preliminary Forecast 1/26/15) Kyser Center for Economic Research California Economic Forecast

20. Los Angeles County Kyser Center for Economic Research

21. So Cal Economic Activity – broad Port Activity 2014 – 3 rd best Motion Picture & Sound Recording – stronger Housing - potential Kyser Center for Economic Research So Cal Highlights

22. Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research Local Unemployment Rates Dec 2014

23. Kyser Center for Economic Research Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles YTY % change in nonfarm employment Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Dec 2014: +70,600 jobs, +1.7% YTY

24. Kyser Center for Economic Research Los Angeles County Nonfarm Jobs Dec 2014: +70,600; +1.7% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division YTY % change in nonfarm jobs

25. Millions of TEUs Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research Dec 2014 YTD: +3.8%

26. Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Transportation & Warehousing Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +4,100 jobs, +2.6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

27. Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Dec 2014 YTY: +5.0% +6,400 jobs YTD: +6.5% Shoot Days: +9.6% YTY

28. Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Manufacturing Employment Dec 2014 YTY – Durable: -2,200, -1.1% | Nondurable: -4,500, -2.8% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

29. Manufacturing Trends Adding Jobs:  Machinery Mfg  Furniture  Miscellaneous Durable Goods Losing Jobs:  Petro-Chemical  Food  Aerospace  Electronics  Apparel/Textiles Kyser Center for Economic Research

30. L.A. County Aerospace Products Manufacturing Employment Dec 2014 YTY: -900 jobs, -2.3% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

31. Kyser Center for Economic Research Technology Employment Goods & Services Sectors Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

32. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Economics Kyser Center for Economic Research Value of Manufacturing Output – California

33. Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. Health Care and Social Assistance Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +22,000 jobs, +3.6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

34. Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Professional & Business Services Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +19,300 jobs, +3.2% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

35. Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Leisure & Hospitality Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +11,300 jobs, +2.6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

36. Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Retail Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +7,200 jobs, +1.7% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

37. Kyser Center for Economic Research Real Estate

38. Kyser Center for Economic Research Home Sales & Median Prices Los Angeles County New and existing, single-family homes and condos Sales$ Thousands Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick

39. Residential Building Permits Issued in Los Angeles County Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, Preliminary Forecast LAEDC (1/27/15) Kyser Center for Economic Research

40. L.A. County Construction Employment Dec 2014 YTY: +5,000 jobs, 4.1% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

41. Source: CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research Apartment Vacancy Rates – Southern California Percent vacancy, quarterly averages

42. Kyser Center for Economic Research Apartment Rents – Southern California Source: CA Real Estate Research Council

43. Kyser Center for Economic Research Industrial Vacancy Rates – Southern California Percent vacant, quarterly averages Source: Cushman and Wakefield

44. Kyser Center for Economic Research Office Vacancy Rates – Southern California Percent vacancy, quarterly averages

45. City of Los Angeles Kyser Center for Economic Research

46. Labor Force & Employment City of Los Angeles Source: EDD

47. Kyser Center for Economic Research Unemployment Rate City of Los Angeles Source: CA EDD

48. Kyser Center for Economic Research Total Taxable Sales in City of Los Angeles Source: CA BOE/LAEDC estimates/forecasts 2013-16

49. 2015 Southern California Forecast Kyser Center for Economic Research

50. Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs Southern California Outlook 2014-15 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC

51. Kyser Center for Economic Research THANK YOU! Kyser Center for Economic Research