6. The Amazing Race By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc.
On Behalf of
NAIOP – MD/DC Chapter
By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
December 9, 2009

7. Biggest Loser

8. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2010*
Source: International Monetary Fund
* data are projections

9. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas, 2009
Source: International Monetary Fund

10. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth
Rank
Exchange
Index
2008 % Change 3
London SE
FTSE 100
-31.3% 1
NYSE Group
DJI A
-33.8% 12
Swiss Exchange
Swiss Market
-34.2% 9
TSX Group
S&P TSX Composite
-35.4% 2
Nasdaq
NASDAQ Composite
-39.6% 8
Bolsa De Medrid
Madrid General
-40.0% 6
Frankfurt SE
DAX
-40.2% 4
Tokyo SE
Nikkei 225
-41.5% 5
Euronext
CAC 40
-42.6% 11
Hong Kong Exchanges
Hang Seng Index
-47.9% 10
Borsa Italiana
MIBTel
-48.5% 7
Shanghai SE
Shanghai Composite
-65.4%
Source: Yahoo! Finance

11. Top 12 Stock Exchanges Sep. 30, 2008-Nov. 30, 2009 Growth
Rank
Exchange
Index
Growth 7
Shanghai SE
Shanghai Composite
47.0% 11
Hong Kong Exchanges
Hang Seng Index
21.1% 10
Borsa Italiana
FTSE MIB
12.4% 3
London SE
FTSE 100
5.9% 8
Bolsa De Medrid
Madrid General
3.4% 2
Nasdaq
NASDAQ Composite
2.5% 9
TSX Group
S&P TSX Composite
-2.6% 6
Frankfurt SE
DAX
-3.5% 1
NYSE Group
DJI A
-4.7% 12
Swiss Exchange
Swiss Market
-5.9% 5
Euronext
CAC 40
-8.7% 4
Tokyo SE
Nikkei 225
-17.0%

12. American Idle

13. Recession Watch as of May 2009
Source: Moody’s Economy

14. Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2009Q3
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

15. Recession Watch as of November 2009
Source: Moody’s Economy

16. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2001 through November 2009
11/09: -11k
Between November 2008 and November 2009, the U.S.
lost 4.8 million jobs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, ADP January 2001 through November 2009
Source: ADP

18. National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups November 2008 v
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change
-4,759k All Told
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19. Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) October 2008 v. October 2009 Absolute Change
MD Total: K; -2.0%
US Total: -5,504K; -4.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) October 2008 v. October 2009 Absolute Change
Baltimore Total: -28.9K; -2.2%
MD Total: K; -2.0%
US Total: -5,504K; -4.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21. Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) October 2008 v. October 2009 Absolute Change
DC MSA Total: K; -1.1%
US Total: -5,504K; -4.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) October 2009
Rank
State
Rate 1
NORTH DAKOTA
4.2 17
MINNESOTA
7.6 35
INDIANA
9.8 2
NEBRASKA
4.9 19
NEW MEXICO
7.9
MISSISSIPPI 3
SOUTH DAKOTA
5.0 20
MAINE
8.2 37
GEORGIA
10.2 4
MONTANA
6.4 21
TEXAS
8.3 38
OHIO
10.5 5
UTAH
6.5 22
WISCONSIN
8.4
TENNESSEE
VERMONT 23
WEST VIRGINIA
8.5 40
ALABAMA
10.9 7
VIRGINIA
6.6 24
DELAWARE
8.7 41
ILLINOIS
11.0 8
IOWA
6.7 25
CONNECTICUT
8.8
NORTH CAROLINA 9
KANSAS
6.8
PENNSYLVANIA 43
FLORIDA
11.2
NEW HAMPSHIRE 27
ALASKA
8.9
KENTUCKY 11
COLORADO
6.9
MASSACHUSETTS 45
OREGON
11.3 12
OKLAHOMA
7.1 29
IDAHO
9.0 46
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
11.9 13
HAWAII
7.2
NEW YORK 47
SOUTH CAROLINA
12.1 14
MARYLAND
7.3 31
ARIZONA
9.3 48
CALIFORNIA
12.5 15
LOUISIANA
7.4
MISSOURI 49
RHODE ISLAND
12.9
WYOMING
WASHINGTON 50
NEVADA
13.0
ARKANSAS 34
NEW JERSEY
9.7 51
MICHIGAN
15.1
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate: October 09’ =10.2%

23. MD County Unemployment Rates October 2009
Rank
Jurisdiction UR 1
Montgomery County
5.4 13
Prince George's County
7.4 2
Howard County
5.5 14
Kent County
7.7 3
Saint Mary’s County
5.9 15
Baltimore County
7.8 4
Calvert County
6.0 16
Allegany County
7.9 5
Charles County
6.1 17
Wicomico County
8.3 6
Frederick County
6.2 18
Cecil County
8.8 7
Carroll County
6.5 19
Caroline County
9.1 8
Anne Arundel County
6.7 20
Somerset County
9.6
Queen Anne’s County
Washington County 10
Garrett County
7.0 22
Worcester County
10.0
Talbot County 23
Baltimore City
10.8 12
Harford County
7.2 24
Dorchester County
11.2
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

24. Baltimore/Washington Metros Unemployment Rate January 1999-October 2009
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

25. Baltimore/Washington Metros Employment January 1999-October 2009
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

26. Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros(NSA) October 2009
Rank
MSA UR 1
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC, VA, MD, WV
6.2 11
St. Louis, MO-IL
9.8 2
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
7.1 12
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI
10.3 3
Baltimore-Towson, MD
7.7 13
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
10.4 4
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
7.9 14
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
10.5 5
Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, TX
8.3 15
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
10.6 6
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
8.5 16
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 7
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
8.7 17
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
11.7 8
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
8.8 18
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
11.9 9
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 19
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
14.6 10
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
9.1 20
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
16.7
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

27. Stimulus Money Disbursed Per Square Mile, Top 10 States and Balt
Stimulus Money Disbursed Per Square Mile, Top 10 States and Balt./Wash Corridor
State:
As of Nov. 17th
Money per miles2
1.D.C.
$2,792,048,590
$40,855,262
2.New Jersey
3,897,974,754
446,949
3.Rhode Island
674,700,491
436,685
4.Baltimore-Washington Corridor
707,377,184
428,973
5.Massachusetts
3,881,943,986
367,797
6.Connecticut
1,704,413,930
307,471
7.Maryland
3,178,239,416
256,172
8.Delaware
544,809,215
218,863
9.New York
10,593,282,081
194,173
10.South Carolina
3,822,471,173
119,377
Source: Recovery.gov

28. Trading Spaces

29. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through October 2009
Source: Freddie Mac

30. U.S. Existing Home Sales September 2001 through October 2009
Source: Economy.com

31. U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through October2009
Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

32. U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999 through October 2009
Source: Economy.com

33. Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction October 2008 vs
Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction October 2008 vs. October 2009
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland = Oct. 2008: 49,601 Oct. 2009: 42,521

34. Active Housing Inventory by Suburban MD October 2008 vs. October 2009
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland = Oct. 2008: 49,601 Oct. 2009: 42,521

35. Source: National Association of Realtors
Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3
Boston, MA: %
New York, NY: %
Philly, PA: %
Baltimore, MD: %
Washington, DC: %
Source: National Association of Realtors
U.S.: % in 2009Q3

36. Source: National Association of Realtors
Worst Performing Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3
Source: National Association of Realtors
U.S.: % in 2009Q3

37. Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates, Prime Mortgage Loans 2005Q2 through 2009Q3
National Mortgage Delinquency for …
2009 Q2: 6.41%
2009 Q3: 6.84%
Source: Economy.com
The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 0.7 percent of Fixed Rate prime loans and 3.4 percent of all adjustable rate prime loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter.

38. Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates Subprime Mortgage Loans 2005Q2 through 2009Q3
National Mortgage Delinquency for …
2009 Q2: 25.35%
2009 Q3: 26.42%
Source: Economy.com
The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of fixed rate subprime loans in the foreclosure process was 2.6 percent while those with adjustable rates were 4.9 percent.

39. Commercial Real Estate Loans January 2001 through October 2009
Source: Federal Reserve Board

40. Metropolitan Office Vacancy Rates 3rd Quarter 2009
Source: CB Richard Ellis

41. Local Office Vacancy Rates 3rd Quarter 2009
Source: CB Richard Ellis

42. Fear Factor

43. Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index October 2001 through November 2009
Source: Conference Board

44. U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales January 2001 through October 2009
Source: Dismal.com

45. U. S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store October 2008 vs
U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store October 2008 vs. October 2009
Source: Economy.com

46. U.S. Personal Savings Rate January 2002 through October 2009
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Energy Information Administration

47. Overview of where the $787 billion is going
Source: Recovery.gov

48. U.S. Federal Budget Deficit 1995-2010*
Source: Congressional Budget Office
* data are projections

49. America’s Next Top Model
Stimulus, stimulus, stimulus;
We’ve seen the worst of it from a broader economic perspective;
Too soon to tell if inflation will be problematic;
U.S. dollar may be the economic element to watch;
BRAC;
Washington/Baltimore region will continue to outperform and the degree of outperformance will probably surprise you;
Next year represents a year of moderate improvement; &
2011????

50. Thank You You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com
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