1. National Economic Conditions
May 24, 2016

2. The views expressed here are my own and do not represent those of my colleagues at the Federal Reserve

3. Real Gross Domestic Product
FOMC Projection Q1
0.5%
Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the March 2016 Summary of Economic Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board

4. Contributions to Real GDP Growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board

5. ISM: Business Survey Indexes
To be Overhauled
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics

6. Industrial Production
2012 = 100
Mining
Overall
March
To be Overhauled
Manufacturing
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

7. Disposable Personal Income & Expenditures
12 Month % Change
Real Disposable Personal
Income
March
Real Personal
Consumption Expenditure
To be Overhauled
Note: Real disposable personal Income was adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near end of 2012.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

8. Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks
Millions of Vehicles
April
17.42 mil.
Autos and Light Trucks
Light Trucks
To be Overhauled
Autos
Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics

9. Household Net Worth To be Overhauled
Percent of disposable personal income
Q4.
To be Overhauled
Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics

10. Average Annual Existing Home Sales:
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Millions of Homes
March
4.76 mil.
To be Overhauled
Average Annual Existing Home Sales:
1990 through 1999
Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics

11. NAR Housing Affordability Index
Index, (median income/median qualifying income)*100
To be Overhauled
Source: NAR via Haver Analytics

12. 1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Millions of Starts & Permits
Average Housing Starts
Starts
March
To be Overhauled
Permits
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

13. Real Nonresidential Fixed InvestmentQ1
-5.9%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

14. Real Private Construction Put In Place
2009$, Billions
Real Private
Residential
Construction
Real Private
Nonresidential
Construction
March
To be Overhauled
Notes: Private nonresidential construction deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures and private residential construction deflated using the private residential investment chain price index.
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

15. Core Capital Goods To be Overhauled Current $, Billions New Orders
March
Shipments
To be Overhauled
Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

16. Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Percent
Retailers
March
To be Overhauled
Total Business
Manufacturers
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

17. Exports To be Overhauled Current $, Billions
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

18. Exchange Value of the USD
Index, March 1973 = 100
April
To be Overhauled
Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar.
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

19. Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

20. Unemployment Rate
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the March 2016 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

21. Measures of Labor Utilization
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

22. Labor Force Participation
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

23. Average Hourly Earnings
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

24. Quarterly Change at Annual Rate
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
Year over Year % Change
Quarterly Change at Annual Rate
Post-War Average Q1
0.6%
To be Overhauled
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

25. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
12 Month % Change
FOMC Projection
2% Longer-run Target
To be Overhauled
March
0.8%
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the March 2016 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

26. Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.
Crude Oil Prices
Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.
Source: Financial Times & New York Mercantile Exchange via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg

27. Commodity Price Indexes
12 Month % Change
12 Month % Change
Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity Price Index
(Right Axis)
April
PPI Core Intermediate Goods
(Left Axis)
To be Overhauled
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics

28. TIPS Inflation Compensation
May 6th
Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics

29. Federal Reserve System Assets
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

30. Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate
Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate
target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of the calendar year.
Projections made for the March 2016 meeting.
Source: Board of Governors

31. Capital Market Rates May 13th
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

32. Risk Premium
May 13th
Note: Risk Premium is defined as the difference in yields between BofA Merrill Lynch BBB and 10-year Treasury.
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

33. Questions/comments?